Sistema comercial de Dalembert

Sistema comercial de Dalembert

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Hola Simba, Tienes razón, no necesitas un TP / SL simplemente funciona bien para calcular las probabilidades fijas. Lo que usted necesita como usted señaló es obtener un control sobre las estadísticas relacionadas con las vetas ganadoras. De alguna manera tener un sistema variable (que toma ganancias en diferentes niveles y / o cambios SL / TP) es más parecido a las apuestas deportivas donde tiene probabilidades variables en cada apuesta. Algunos juegos te dan 3-1 probabilidades. 7-2, 8-1 (underdog real) así que sus pagos son variables. Lo que esto significa es que al elegir mayores probabilidades para su apuesta en cualquier punto de la serie puede cambiar sus expectativas de gestión de dinero. El SL / TP siempre determinará nuestras "probabilidades". Si utiliza un 20 pip SL / TP usted está arriesgando $ 200 para ganar $ 200. Si cambia el TP a $ 300, estará arriesgando los mismos $ 200 para obtener un pago más alto. Usted está cambiando las probabilidades. El problema es que no estamos cambiando las "expectativas". ¿Dónde en la serie queremos hacer eso? La desviación estándar diría apostar la casa como usted dice Simba. El problema es que cada comercio es diferente y si cambias el TP / SL has creado un conjunto completamente nuevo de probabilidades no relacionadas con el anterior. Al pedir a un comercio para ir a hacer la forma de $ 10 a hacer $ 200 no tenemos idea si cumplirá con eso. Uno tendría que ejecutar backtest con TP / SL variable en todos los niveles de su Matrix de apuestas. Un SL / TP fijo es más cercano a una apuesta de dinero par para mí. Ahora ponga un 70% ganando la tarifa (nuestra ventaja sobre el lanzamiento de la moneda) en eso y usted debe oscilar. Me gusta droesparky idea sobre ser simultáneamente largo y corto (esta es una de las grandes ventajas de FX sobre cualquier otro mercado). Siempre me gustan las situaciones de cobertura. Si podemos navegar continuamente un poco (cubierto) con poco estiramiento, estoy a favor. ¿Qué es el método de caja asiática? La clave de todo esto es quitar dinero de la mesa, usted debe pagar usted mismo! DocB Comentario ¿Existen otros métodos de juegos de azar fuera de Martingale, Fibonacci y Ecuación Binaria? Comentario No he leído este hilo completamente y lo que estoy a punto de decir puede no aplicarse. Uno de los mitos más grandes entre los nuevos comerciantes es que de alguna manera el dinero puede administrar un método no ganador en un ganador. A largo plazo, no se puede hacer. Si un sistema no muestra un beneficio con apuestas fijas, no hay una técnica MM que lo haga rentable. Comentario Originalmente publicado por billbss No he leído este hilo completamente y lo que estoy a punto de decir puede no aplicarse. Uno de los mitos más grandes entre los nuevos comerciantes es que de alguna manera el dinero puede administrar un método no ganador en un ganador. A largo plazo, no se puede hacer. Si un sistema no muestra un beneficio con apuestas fijas, no hay una técnica MM que lo haga rentable. GRACIAS. Comencé un hilo en MM donde pregunté qué era tan especial sobre él. Hasta el momento, las respuestas son. bien. Usted puede comprobar hacia fuera el hilo aquí: Comentario Si usted tiene un método de sonido para empezar, la gestión del dinero puede maximizar los beneficios. Por un método de sonido, quiero decir que arriesgar exactamente la misma cantidad cada comercio mostrará un beneficio. El método óptimo de gestión del dinero es el Criterio de Kelly. Sin embargo, para Kelly para trabajar tienes que tener buenas estadísticas en su sistema. Usted tiene que saber la tasa de ganancia, el promedio de la cantidad ganadora de comercio y el promedio de la cantidad de comercio que pierde. Tienes que tener suficientes datos de vuelta para que las estadísticas sean significativas. Comentario Comentario Esto no ha sido un tema largo, ¿por qué no se molestó en leerlo? Lea el primer post, haga su propia investigación y demostrar o refutar por sí mismo. Última edición por WNW; 12-05-2007, 03:18. Comentario En caso de que alguien esté interesado. I codificado dinero binario mgmt. Para cualquiera que quiera backtest su sistema con MM binario, siga estos insructions. Ver ejemplo binario Double binaryMM (double accpercent, int sltp, int tau, int MAGIC) calcula la gestión binaria del dinero y devuelve el número de lotes que se negociarán. Accpercent: el porcentaje de la cuenta que se designará para el comercio. Más específicamente para calcular el total de unidades de cuenta. Sltp: el número pips el sl y tp están igualmente fijados en Tau: unidades totales de cuenta MAGIC: el número mágico de EA ejemplo. Lotes dobles = binarioMM (100,15,100,0); Esto sólo funcionará en backtesting. Si alguien quiere una versión desbloqueada para demo o comercio en vivo por favor PM yo. Última edición por Nicholishen; 22-06-2007, 18:42. D Albert sistemas Sé de uno - ecuación binaria que negocia. En este sitio, los resultados & quot; En un sistema D Albert se publica "en vivo" (Bien, mensual o así) y es realmente impresionante. De hecho, compré este sistema (tratando de aprender más), pero por desgracia, no puedo llegar ni siquiera cerca de la proporción requerida ganar / perder (como publicado en el sitio - y el uso de su estrategia.) Así que no funcionó para mí. Aun así - lectura interesante para aquellos tan inclinados. Comentario Consulte la sección "Ecuación binaria & quot; hilo. No es un sistema puro de D'Alembert, a pesar de las afirmaciones del autor. Comentario ¿Cómo retrocedo esto? ¿Necesito enviarle una estrategia con la que pueda utilizar la administración del dinero en el baño? No entiendo tu mensaje En caso de que alguien esté interesado. I codificado dinero binario mgmt. Para cualquiera que quiera backtest su sistema con MM binario, siga estos insructions. Ver ejemplo binario Double binaryMM (double accpercent, int sltp, int tau, int MAGIC) calcula la gestión binaria del dinero y devuelve el número de lotes que se negociarán. Accpercent: el porcentaje de la cuenta que se designará para el comercio. Más específicamente para calcular el total de unidades de cuenta. Sltp: el número pips el sl y tp están igualmente fijados en Tau: unidades totales de cuenta MAGIC: el número mágico de EA ejemplo. Lotes dobles = binarioMM (100,15,100,0); Esto sólo funcionará en backtesting. Si alguien quiere una versión desbloqueada para demo o comercio en vivo por favor PM yo. Estrategia de Blackjack - Sistema de Apuestas D'Alembert El D'Alembert es un simple sistema de apuestas, que se basa en la Martingala con algunos pequeños cambios. Al usar el sistema de apuestas de blackjack D'Alembert, el jugador subirá su apuesta una unidad después de que pierde y bajará la apuesta por una unidad si gana. El D'Alembert lleva el nombre de Jean le Rond D'Alembert, matemático francés, físico y filósofo del siglo XVIII. Una de sus teorías basadas en la Ley del equilibrio afirma un equilibrio a largo plazo de fracasos y éxitos en el transcurso de una serie de acontecimientos. Por lo tanto, de acuerdo con la teoría, todo el mundo tiene una mayor probabilidad de ganar después de que pierde y una mayor probabilidad de una pérdida después de que gana. Pero la palabra clave es "a largo plazo". El D'Alembert es un sistema de apuestas progresivo muy popular, también conocido como el "Sistema de la Pirámide". Se utiliza con mayor frecuencia en la ruleta y el baccarat. Pero también se aplica para blackjack. Hay un sistema de apuestas Contra-D'Alembert, la variante positiva del D'Alembert. Cuando se utiliza en el blackjack, el D'Alembert pretende aumentar la apuesta por una unidad después de cada pérdida, y bajar la apuesta por una unidad después de cada triunfo. En cualquier caso, el sistema D'Alembert es un sistema de apuestas progresivo y arriesgado. El jugador debe jugar con precaución usando el D'Alembert; Pero es un sistema menos peligroso que el Martingale (donde es necesario doblar la apuesta en vez de levantarla por una unidad). El D'Alembert es fácil de entender y seguir. Por ejemplo, estás jugando blackjack donde un $ 5 es la apuesta mínima (que es una "unidad"). Así que, empieza poniendo una apuesta de $ 5. Después de la pérdida, su próxima apuesta será de $ 10 que es de dos unidades. En caso de ganar, la apuesta será de $ 5. Si pierdes la segunda mano, tu apuesta será de $ 15. Si esta mano gana, usted apuesta $ 10, por lo que baja sólo por una unidad, y no volver a la apuesta original. 1 perder 2 perder 3 ganar 2 perder 3 Es un sistema que pierde matemáticamente. Usted puede exceder su bankroll o alcanzar el límite de mesa antes de golpear una mano ganadora. También existe el Sistema Reverse D'Alembert. Hay que añadir una unidad a la siguiente apuesta después de cada victoria y disminuir después de cada pérdida. 5 pérdidas 4 pérdidas 3 pérdidas 2 ganar 3 ganar 4 perder 3 Usted debe parar en el tiempo. No aumente su apuesta demasiado. Su racha ganadora puede terminar de repente. Los sistemas de apuestas caen en las categorías generales de apuestas lo mismo después de cada decisión, conocida como apuesta plana, aumento de las apuestas después de las victorias, llamadas progresiones positivas, y recaudar dinero después de las pérdidas, denominadas progresiones negativas, También hay sistemas que tienen características de uno o más de estos tipos, como el sistema de apuestas de estrategia de ataque Baccarat que encontraremos en algunos capítulos más. Muchos de los sistemas clásicos de apuestas se desarrollaron para la ruleta en los siglos XVIII y XIX, pero pueden utilizarse para otros juegos con apuestas de dinero igual, como los dados, el baccarat y el blackjack. Aunque ninguno de estos sistemas en su forma pura es un sistema ganador, vale la pena estudiar los esfuerzos de nuestros antepasados ​​ya que estos sistemas de apuestas son los abuelos de cada sistema de apuestas moderno. Martingale es uno de los sistemas de apuestas más antiguos que utiliza una progresión negativa. Se nombra después de Henry Martingale, dueño del casino inglés en los 1700s que se reputa para instar a los apostadores perdidos a "doblarlos para arriba & quot; Con sus apuestas. Este sistema es muy simple. Utilizará una serie de apuestas en la que cada apuesta de la serie es dos veces mayor que la anterior, como con 1, 2, 4, 8, 16, 32. Mientras gane una apuesta, continuará apostando Nivel más bajo, por ejemplo Apuesta 1. Si pierde una apuesta, se moverá hasta la apuesta siguiente, duplicando la cantidad de la apuesta anterior. El uso del sistema asegura que cada vez que su apuesta finalmente gane, usted ganará la cantidad de la apuesta original, en este caso 1. Uno de mis amigos de juego una vez me habló de un increíble sistema que había desarrollado para los dados. Había ido a Las Vegas en dos viajes consecutivos y había devuelto un ganador. Estaba apostando sólo en no pasar en los dados del casino usando una serie de apuestas comenzando con una apuesta de $ 1 y duplicando su apuesta después de cada pérdida. Estaba seguro de que su riesgo de pérdida era muy pequeño y planeó seguir usando el sistema. Él era reacio a compartir el sistema conmigo, pero finalmente confesó que estaba usando la siguiente serie de apuestas, aumentando su apuesta un nivel después de una pérdida: 1 2 4 8 16 32 64 128 256. Él correctamente señaló que tendría que Perder nueve veces seguidas para perder la serie de apuestas, y él simplemente no pensó que esto era posible. Le señalé que existía una posibilidad muy real de que pudiera perder nueve decisiones seguidas; De hecho, esto sucedería una vez cada 500 líneas de paso - no pasan las decisiones. Con las decisiones de dados de un promedio de cincuenta a sesenta por hora, una pérdida de las nueve apuestas podría ocurrir una vez cada ocho a diez horas. Le pedí que considerara si ganaba lo suficiente para sostener una pérdida de $ 511.00 (la cantidad total que estaba arriesgando) para ganar la suma de $ 1. Esto debe haberlo impresionado ya que no creo que alguna vez utilizó este sistema de nuevo (o al menos no me dijo acerca de perder con él). El sistema Martingale sería casi inmejorable si pudieras continuar doblando tus apuestas hasta que finalmente ganaste una apuesta. Los casinos modernos son muy conscientes de Martingale, y saben que la manera más fácil de frustrar el sistema es reducir el spread entre las apuestas máxima y mínima permitida. En otras palabras, la apuesta mínima debe ser lo suficientemente alta y la apuesta máxima lo suficientemente baja como para que no se produzcan más de ocho o nueve dobles. Si encuentras una tabla con un mínimo bajo, como $ 1 y un máximo alto, como $ 3,000, puedes intentar usar un sistema Martingale contra la mesa. Puede utilizar la siguiente serie de apuestas: 1 2 4 8 16 32 64 128 256 512 1,024 2,048. Con 12 apuestas en la serie, usted sería un favorito de las probabilidades en ganar cualquier concurso de juego de fin de semana que implica apuestas de dinero uniforme. Sin embargo, es posible que desee considerar una cosa. Si intenta esto, tarde o temprano perderá la apuesta número 11, por $ 1,024. Ahora habrá perdido $ 2,047 y será llamado a apostar $ 2,048 para ganar la gran suma de $ 1. ¿Está usted dispuesto a arriesgarlo? Si usted gana, usted será exactamente un dólar por sus esfuerzos. Sin embargo, si pierde su última apuesta de $ 2,048, habrá perdido $ 4,095 en el concurso de juegos. Si bien el riesgo de pérdida es bajo, sucederá en algún momento si continúa apostando de esta manera, y no hay garantía de que no sucederá durante su primera excursión de casino utilizando este sistema. Martingala en su forma más pura es demasiado arriesgado para la cantidad de recompensa ofrecida. Casi todos los expertos de juego le gusta citar a Martingale como un ejemplo de un sistema perdedor y luego saltar a un modo de regodeo y proclamar que todos los sistemas de apuestas son perdedores. Sin embargo, un sistema Martingale se puede utilizar con muy buenos resultados si se utiliza sobre una base de punto. Suponga que está apostando por un juego de dinero uniforme y que ha perdido las últimas cuatro apuestas consecutivas. Por lo general, una Martingala de tres etapas contra esta tendencia que continúa por tres decisiones más será bastante rentable y la recompensa será razonable en comparación con la cantidad arriesgada. Una progresión de Martingala de cinco etapas se puede utilizar muy provechosamente cuando se utiliza contra un patrón de apuestas que es menos probable que ocurra de lo que se esperaría normalmente. Una crítica de Martingale es que se arriesga demasiado en comparación con el potencial retorno. Por ejemplo, en la primera serie de Martingale mostrada, habrías tenido que apostar $ 256 para ganar una red de $ 1. Con Grand Martingale, se añaden fichas adicionales a cada apuesta aumentada, de modo que cuando finalmente se produzca una victoria, la cantidad ganada será mayor que la cantidad de la primera apuesta. Una típica serie Grand Martingale es: 1 3 5 15 35 75. La martingala en todas las formas corre el riesgo de ganar mucho. Cuando lleguen las pérdidas, eliminarán las horas de ganancias. Otro giro en el uso de una serie de Martingala es jugar a Martingala a la inversa, denominada "Anti-Martingale" Serie de apuestas. Con este sistema, las apuestas ganadoras serán presionadas (duplicadas). Siempre que encuentres una larga racha ganadora este sistema puede producir ganancias fenomenales. Supongamos que usamos la siguiente serie de Anti-Martingale: 5 10 20 40 80. Con cinco victorias consecutivas, vamos a $ 155, mientras que nuestro riesgo total es sólo la cantidad de nuestra primera apuesta, $ 5. La proporción de recompensa de alto riesgo es una de las principales razones para aumentar sus apuestas después de las victorias es recomendada por muchos expertos en juegos. Sin embargo, como vimos dos capítulos atrás, este tipo de sistema gana muy poco, y las pérdidas de muchos pequeños abruman más ganancias, por lo que más del 90% de todos los juegos terminará con una pérdida. Con Labouchere, también conocido como el sistema de cancelación, el jugador establece una serie de números que se sumará a la ganancia que hará si gana esta serie de apuestas. Si elige 1 2 3 como su serie, su beneficio esperado para ganar esta serie es 1 + 2 + 3 = 6. Al igual que las variaciones de Martingale, esta serie se utiliza con apuestas de dinero par. Para iniciar la serie, un jugador apostará la suma de los dos números exteriores, en este caso 4 (1 + 3 = 4). Si gana esta apuesta, cancelará los dos números exteriores raspándolos y apostará la suma de los dos números exteriores siguientes. En esta serie simple, sólo queda el número individual de 2, por lo que el jugador apostaría 2. Si también gana esta apuesta, habrá ganado la serie, habiendo ganado 4 en la primera ronda y 2 para la segunda apuesta, por Un total de 6, el total de todas las apuestas en la serie. Cada vez que el jugador pierde una apuesta, agregará la cantidad perdida a la serie y continuará apostando la suma de las dos apuestas exteriores. Supongamos que el jugador perdió la primera apuesta de 4. Él añadiría esta apuesta a la serie, que ahora se convertiría en: 1 2 3 4. Su apuesta siguiente sería para 5, la suma de las dos apuestas exteriores. Asumiremos que esta apuesta gana. Después de haber ganado la apuesta, nuestros jugadores cancela los números exteriores de 1 y 4 dejando la serie como: 2 3. El siguiente apuesta la suma de estos dos números, apostando 5. Si esta apuesta gana la serie se completa. Si pierde esta apuesta, la apuesta perdedora de 5 será añadida a la serie y continuará la serie. El principal atractivo de este sistema es que parece ser una proposición de dos por uno en que cada ganancia cancela dos números mientras que una pérdida sólo agrega un número a la serie. Sin embargo, este no es el caso, ya que el jugador no se paga dos por uno en apuestas ganadoras. En la prueba de este sistema, he tenido apuestas escalar a apuestas de cientos de dólares con demasiada frecuencia. Éste es probablemente el más insidioso de los viejos sistemas de la ruleta del tiempo. Se dice que ha sido responsable de más suicidios en la Riviera francesa que cualquier otro sistema. Parte del problema con este sistema es que la pequeña corriente de victorias constantes tiende a acallar al jugador para que crea que el sistema no puede perder. Desafortunadamente, se producirá una racha de pérdidas lo suficientemente larga como para que las apuestas solicitadas sean mayores que el bankroll del jugador o excederán los límites de la casa y no se permitirán. En cualquier caso, la serie terminará con el resultado final que el jugador sufre una pérdida sustancial. Este sistema también se puede jugar al revés, conocido como Reverse Labouchere. Con Reverse Labby, como muchos apostadores lo llaman, la cantidad de cada ganancia se agrega a la serie, y los dos números externos se cancelan cada vez que ocurre una pérdida. Cada apuesta sigue siendo la suma de los dos números exteriores. Este sistema produce muchas pequeñas pérdidas a cambio de una victoria ocasional de más de 1.000 veces la cantidad en riesgo. El uso de este enfoque se recuenta en el fascinante relato de Norman Leigh de su exitoso esfuerzo por vencer al casino de Monte Carlo jugando a Labouchere al revés (William Morrow & Co. 1976). Norman Leigh teorizó que la razón por la que muchos jugadores pierden con Labouchere es que se topan con los límites de la casa o pierden su capital de juego y son incapaces de recuperar las pérdidas. Dado que el banco tiene un capital casi ilimitado en comparación con los jugadores, el banco puede esperar la mayoría de los asaltos de jugadores, sabiendo que el límite de apuestas de la casa o los recursos financieros limitados del jugador traerá la muerte del jugador. Al utilizar la estrategia de apuestas inversas, Leigh razonó que este enfoque sería más parecido al enfoque del banco para la mayoría de los otros jugadores. Esperaría las pequeñas pérdidas hasta que se produjera una gran victoria. Leigh pasó meses reclutando y entrenando a un equipo para jugar contra el casino. Sus intentos en la retirada de este golpe hacen de la lectura fascinante. Creo que una de las razones por las que finalmente pudo vencer al casino en Monte Carlo fue que sus apuestas iniciales eran bastante bajas y los máximos de la casa eran grandes en comparación. Consecuentemente, pudo mantener sus pérdidas bastante bajas mientras su equipo jugaba, esperando la victoria del monstruo. Es dudoso que este sistema podría ser utilizado con éxito ahora, ya que la propagación entre las apuestas mínima y máxima no es lo suficientemente grande en la mayoría de los casinos. Las pérdidas realizadas mientras se espera el gran triunfo serían enormes, con los límites de la casa en apuestas máximas limitando la capacidad de los sistemas para recuperar en última instancia las pérdidas. Este sistema fue inventado por un matemático francés, basado en el supuesto de equilibrio en los concursos de juego. D'Alembert razonó que puesto que las apuestas ganadoras y perdedoras debían eventualmente ser iguales, un sistema de agregar un chip después de cada apuesta perdida y de restar un chip después de una apuesta ganadora acabaría resultando en un triunfo, ya que las apuestas ganadoras serían siempre mayores que las perdidas . No es inusual ganar sólo diez de las primeras treinta apuestas en un concurso de apuestas de dinero uniforme. Con el sistema d'Alembert, el jugador apostará cantidades cada vez más altas hasta que eventualmente se encuentre con nuestro viejo némesis, el límite de la casa. D'Alembert puede tener bastante éxito si se modifica para incluir no más de nueve o diez apuestas en una serie de apuestas, de manera que las pérdidas potenciales son limitadas. Una modificación adicional para mejorar el sistema es el espacio de las apuestas para que el triunfo de dos apuestas consecutivas compensará las pérdidas anteriores. Una serie que logra esto es 1 2 3 4 7 11 18. Con esta serie, un jugador caería de nuevo a la apuesta más baja después de ganar dos apuestas consecutivas, como 7 y 4. Este sistema puede ser bastante exitoso si es utilizado por dos socios Apostando lo contrario en la ruleta, craps o baccarat. Al igual que Reverse Labouchere, la idea detrás de Contra-d'Alembert es reducir la cantidad de riesgo, mientras que permitir que las carreras rentables a elevarse a grandes alturas. Con esta estrategia vamos a aumentar nuestra apuesta un nivel después de una victoria y reducirlo un nivel después de una pérdida. El único aspecto positivo a la estrategia es que cuando usted golpea una raya que pierde prolongada el tamaño de sus apuestas se reduce rápidamente. En este sentido, este sistema puede ayudar a proteger su bankroll. Sin embargo, la ventaja de usar cualquier sistema que requiera aumentar su apuesta después de las victorias es limitada. Las tendencias de las rachas ganadoras largas e ininterrumpidas son bastante raras en los juegos y un sistema que depende de la acumulación de triunfos después de una victoria consecutiva no va a ganar muy a menudo. He aquí un ejemplo. Su primera apuesta es para una unidad. Usted gana y pasa a apostar dos unidades. Con otra victoria, usted apuesta tres unidades y tiene una pérdida. Usted ha ganado dos de tres apuestas y no tiene absolutamente nada que mostrar. Todos sus beneficios se evaporaron con esa sola pérdida. Si siempre pudiera elegir sus puntos, este sistema tendría mérito. Por supuesto, si los cerdos pudieran volar. Bueno, ya captas la idea. Es casi imposible saber por adelantado cuando una victoria consecutiva de tres apuestas podría ocurrir para que usted podría saltar con un Contra-d'Alembert. Al igual que muchos sistemas, este suena bien en el papel, pero es difícil de sacar beneficios de los juegos del mundo real. Este es otro de los viejos sistemas de ruleta que se pueden adaptar a cualquier juego que ofrece apuestas de dinero. Con Ascot, las apuestas ganadoras se incrementan una unidad a la vez en una serie predeterminada de apuestas mientras que las apuestas perdedoras se bajan un paso usando la misma serie de apuestas. Una serie de apuestas Ascot puede ser de siete a once números. Una serie típica es: 2 3 5 8 13 20 30. La primera apuesta del jugador sería un número medio como 8. Si esta apuesta gana, la apuesta siguiente sería 13. Si esta apuesta también ganó, la apuesta siguiente sería para 20, y así sucesivamente, con cada victoria seguida por un aumento de un nivel en la serie de apuestas. La serie terminaría con la victoria de la última apuesta en la serie. Para una victoria, eso sería un triunfo de 30. Una serie perdedora sería terminada con la pérdida de la apuesta más baja de 2. El mayor problema con Ascot es que las victorias y pérdidas alternas en los niveles más altos de apuestas destruirán el potencial de ganancias de la serie. Esto puede ser un defecto serio en cualquier sistema que pide una reducción grande en la cantidad apostada después de una pérdida. El Sistema Fibonacci Fibonacci fue un matemático que descubrió una serie de números donde la suma de cada dos números de la serie es igual al número que sigue. Una serie de Fibonacci con doce niveles de apuestas se vería así: 1 2 3 5 8 13 21 34 55 89 144 233 por un riesgo total de $ 608. Este es un sistema de muy bajo riesgo para usar con apuestas de dinero uniforme en dados, ruleta y baccarat. Para usarlo, aumentará su nivel de apuesta después de una pérdida. Después de cualquier victoria, usted deja caer su apuesta siguiente un nivel. Si ganas dos apuestas seguidas o ganas dos de tres apuestas, vuelves a la primera apuesta de la serie. Este sistema fue vendido hace muchos años por $ 100 una copia con instrucciones para usarlo apuestas no pasan en craps. Este es un buen sistema para que los socios usen los opuestos de las apuestas. Con la ruleta, por ejemplo, un socio podía apostar rojo mientras que el otro apostó negro. Con los dados, uno apostaría a la línea de pase y el otro no pasará. Con el baccarat, un socio apostaría a banquero y el otro en manos de jugador. Por cierto, hay una serie de derivaciones de la serie Fibonacci de números, incluyendo las proporciones de los números, que se utilizan regularmente en las existencias comerciales y los futuros contratos de mercancías. De hecho, esta es una secuencia versátil y poderosa de números. Un parlay o paroli es un método de progresión positiva. En su forma más simple, consiste en dejar una apuesta ganadora más las ganancias para una segunda victoria. Si está apostando $ 10 en una apuesta de dinero uniforme y gana $ 10, apostará la apuesta dejando $ 20 para la siguiente decisión. Si esta apuesta gana, habrá ganado $ 30 mientras que sólo arriesga $ 10. Probablemente el aspecto más atractivo de un parlay exitoso es que gana tres veces más que la cantidad arriesgada. Sin embargo, la probabilidad de ganar dos apuestas seguidas en apuestas de dinero uniforme es menos de uno de cada cuatro. Por esta razón, una de las mejores maneras de usar un parlay es combinarlo con una serie de apuestas donde la cantidad apostada se incrementa después de una pérdida. Por ejemplo, la siguiente progresión de parlay podría ser utilizada: 2 2 3 4 6 8 12 16. Para usar esta serie, normalmente comenzaría con la primera apuesta de la serie. Si esta apuesta ganó, usted parlay él y apuesta siguiente $ 4. Si la apuesta original o el parlay perdido, subiría un nivel en la serie de apuestas. Cada vez que se gana una apuesta parlay, comenzará la serie de apuestas. Si la serie se pierde, puede iniciar la serie o dejar la mesa. La creación de progresiones parlay como el anterior puede ser la base para algunas de las progresiones de apuestas mejor desempeño en los juegos de azar. Para usar esta serie en blackjack, que requiere dinero adicional para manejar la división de pares y duplicaciones, se requieren ajustes en la serie. Una forma de manejar esto es modificar la estrategia básica para reducir el número de particiones y dobles. Sin embargo, esta no es una manera sabia de jugar blackjack ya que estos movimientos representan una de las opciones ganadoras más fuertes del jugador. Una mejor manera de manejar el programa de desarrollo de una progresión ganar parlante para blackjack es modificar la progresión para que permita la división y duplicación de oportunidades. Si desea utilizar un sistema con muy poco riesgo de pérdida, aquí está el que desea. Oscar tiene el objetivo de ganar una unidad al final de cualquier serie de apuestas exitosas. Eso es. Una unidad. Aquí están las reglas: 1. Aumente su apuesta en una unidad después de cada triunfo; Siempre que ganar la apuesta no dará lugar a una ganancia en serie más grande que una unidad. 2. Nunca cambie el tamaño de su apuesta después de una pérdida. Suponga que su unidad de apuestas es de $ 5 y usted está apostando no pasar. Te encuentras luchando una racha caliente y has perdido seis apuestas seguidas por una pérdida acumulada de $ 30. Sigue apostando $ 5, ya que nunca cambia el tamaño de su apuesta después de las pérdidas. Usted apuesta $ 5 otra vez y gana. Ahora, con una victoria y seis derrotas, usted está abajo de una red $ 25. Después de la victoria, usted aumenta su apuesta una unidad y apuesta $ 10. Esta apuesta también gana. Ha reducido su pérdida neta a $ 15. Usted levanta su apuesta siguiente una unidad más a $ 15 y gana. Ahora eres igual. Su apuesta final se revertirá a $ 5. ¿Por qué? Debido a la regla que limita el tamaño de una apuesta a una que no dará lugar a una ganancia mayor que una unidad. Su última apuesta de $ 5 gana. Ahora tienes una ganancia neta de $ 5, habiendo perdido seis apuestas y ganado cuatro. Incluso este sistema puede llevarle a niveles altos en ocasiones. Si usted se encuentra en una situación en la que tiene victorias ocasionales seguidas de múltiples pérdidas, el tamaño de sus apuestas continuará creciendo. Si se encuentra con esta situación, se verá obligado a detener la serie en algún momento y aceptar una pérdida, en lugar de arriesgar cantidades cada vez mayores de dinero. John Patrick, un jugador profesional convertido escritor, presentó otro sistema de apuestas positivas para blackjack, que también se puede utilizar para baccarat. En su John Patrick's Blackjack (Carol Publishing Group, 1995) describe su sistema. Utiliza un sistema con atributos progresivos y regresivos. Con su sistema, usted comenzará con una apuesta por lo menos dos veces más grande que el mínimo de la tabla de modo que usted tenga sitio para reducir el tamaño de su apuesta después de triunfos. Después de su primera victoria, su apuesta siguiente será la mitad del tamaño de la primera apuesta ganadora. Por ejemplo, si su apuesta base es $ 10 y usted gana, apostará $ 5 a continuación. Después de cualquier pérdida neta, volverá a la apuesta inicial. Sin embargo, si logra ganar la segunda apuesta de una serie, volverá a la apuesta de dos unidades y aumentará la cantidad apostada después de cualquier victoria adicional. Una serie de seis victorias en una mesa mínima de $ 10 sería como: 20 10 20 30 40 50 por un total de $ 170 ganó. Patrick sugiere una manera de limitar las pérdidas al dejar de fumar si pierde las primeras cuatro manos en un zapato o en una baraja. Lo anterior fue tomado del libro - Estrategia de ataque de Baccarat. Haga clic aquí para obtener acceso a la estrategia de ataque de bacará Librería de Jugadores 5901-J Wyoming NE Suite 305 Albuquerque NM 87109 © 1998 - 2013 Gamblers Bookcase · Todos los Derechos Reservados Email Contacto Estoy orgulloso de presentaros mi sistema más reciente: TS, el Sistema de Disparos, para todos los juegos que incluso pagan. TS es el resultado de muchos meses de investigación con el fin de proporcionar una ventaja al jugador cuando se encuentran ciertas condiciones favorables. La investigación consistió en cuatro fases. La primera fase fue tomar una de las mejores selecciones de apuestas y hacerlo aún mejor al aumentar su porcentaje de victorias. El resultado fue la generación de 400 victorias más de 600 zapatos, lo que ya le da una ventaja de apuesta plana. La segunda fase consistió en estudiar los mejores métodos de apuesta y mejorarlos. El resultado fue muchas más sesiones ganadoras. Se desarrolló un sistema inicial, muy jugable, muy rentable y muy dinámico, ya que cada decisión se apostó. Otros análisis intentaron multiplicar la rentabilidad del sistema, lo que permitió la fase final y cuarta de su desarrollo. En un cierto punto, el sistema requirió el levantamiento de las apuestas de tal manera de determinar el final de una corrida con un beneficio cuando es ganado. La carrera terminaría de cualquier manera, si la apuesta fue ganada o no. El análisis estadístico mostró que aquellas apuestas provocadas por esa condición favorable produjeron muchas más victorias que pérdidas. Así, para maximizar la rentabilidad, uno podría realmente colocar una apuesta muy alta hasta llegar al máximo de la mesa y hacer la mayor cantidad de beneficios basados ​​en esta ventaja; Un concepto similar al conteo de cartas en el Blackjack, como apostar bajo cuando el conteo no es favorable y apostar alto cuando lo es. De esta manera, el sistema inicial se transformó en apuestas sólo dos tipos de apuestas: una pequeña y una grande, la pequeña que podría ser el mínimo de la mesa y la grande, cualquier apuesta alta que el presupuesto de uno permite. Y esto no tiene que ser necesariamente el máximo de la mesa. Si el rango de la mesa es, digamos 1-500, la apuesta más grande puede ser cualquier cosa entre 10 unidades a 500 unidades. Por supuesto, cuanto mayor sea la apuesta alta, más resultado tendrá el resultado final. Y esto queda a discreción del presupuesto del apostador. Sólo para darte una idea, a una tabla de 1-500 rangos, TS genera 20,891.90 unidades más de 36.582 decisiones de los 500 zapatos Zumma probador libro, si uno apuesta 1 unidad en la apuesta inferior y 500 unidades en la apuesta más alta, promediando más de 40 unidades por calzado, comisiones incluidas. Si se decide apostar sólo 40 unidades en la apuesta más alta, TS generará 1.019,90 unidades con un promedio de aproximadamente 2 unidades por zapato. El beneficio final está en plena proporción con las cantidades basadas durante el tiempo de activación. En el juego a corto plazo, uno tiene numerosas oportunidades de dejar de fumar incluso con una apuesta máxima de 10 unidades. Todas esas opciones están completamente documentadas con ejemplos muy elaborados en el documento del sistema. Examples are taken from all tester books, such as the 600 and 1K Zumma Baccarat shoes and the 15,000 Roulette spins, as TS beats them all. Simulations are provided also for 600 random baccarat shoes and 15000 random roulette spins. You will witness the making of up to 32,500.45 units in the 600 random baccarat shoes simulation, a totally phenomenal result. You have many different ways of applying TS: either using only the flat bet advantage and not raise the bets during the trigger time, or use it only when the trigger time comes and use that as a flat bet advantage as it wins much more often than not, or use it all in a combined fashion with flat bets and trigger opportunities. All options are very profitable. For Casino War type of game, for instance, there is no bet selection, thus only the trigger function will generate huge profits. You still place bets on all decisions in all games with no exception, no tracking, and not skipping a single decision, not even the very first few. Join the game or the shoe anytime and still make profits. Quit any time you're ahead or use it indefinitely with always steady growing profits. Here is a performance chart of the system, to give you an idea of its profitability potential: This is applying TS on the Zumma 1K shoes. You can detect peak profits of up to 30,000 units within one half of the tester book, Baccarat Banker win commissions included. TS is the most profitable system ever written. The system goes for $480 a very small price to pay for a system that will make you huge profits. You will receive the system document and all its simulations for the Zumma books and randomly generated decisions by email. As an early bird special, you can have 50% off, if you purchase TS from now until the end of the year 2012 and have it for $240 only. It will be your best investment of the year. With $10 extra, you can have a printout of the system document delivered to you by first class mail. The system is not more than 19 pages, easy to read and understand and easy to apply once you grasp its concept and get a good feel of it with some practice. Your satisfaction is guaranteed. If not, you can have a full refund totally unconditionally within 30 days of your purchase, no strings attached, no questions asked. Click here to order. Thank you, Izak Matatya Frequently Asked Questions on TS - theTrigger System Q: Hi Izak, I am interested in your new system TS, so if i am bringing $1000 to casino each day, what can I be expected to win each day? A: The rule of thumb would be your high bet not to exceed 1/6th of your bankroll, thus your highest bet would be 1000/6 = $167. With you max bet being $167 and say your minimum being $10, you should be able to make 110 units in 10 shoes or about 10 units per shoe, or 10 units per hour of play, thus a profit of $100 per hour minus some commissions. Q: I would like to know what size BR does one need? I know that depends on your max bet but would you say that it is 4 times your max bet. If one would set the max bet to 500 units how many units would you bring to the table? A: TS would need a bankroll about six times the max bet. If your max bet is 10 units, then you will need 60 units. If your max bet is 500 units, then you will need 3000 units. It goes in direct proportion of your max bet. Q: Does one bet every hand? A: One bets every single hand, 100% of the time. There is no tracking, no interruption, no breaks, not even for the very first few hands of the shoe or spins. Q: Izak, I have several questions about your new system. 1) I assume you are betting the small bet to stay in the game waiting to place the large bet. What % of the time does the large bet win? (W vs L in bac tester) 2)How often do you make the large bet? Will it win flat betting? 3) What is largest drawdown in system testing? 4) What is buy in and lifetime bank? Gracias A: You're not just betting the small bet to stay in the game, but you're actually winning with 1 unit flat bets until the trigger opportunity comes. Then you place your large bet, whatever your budget allows from 10 up to 500 units. Those are the stats for 500 shoes for placing the large bet only: wins: 1176 losses: 1103 more wins: 73 Out of 1176 + 1103 = 2279 bets, 1176 of them win, thus a percentage of 51.60%. Since there are 36,581 decisions in those 500 shoes, you are betting 2279 bets as the large bet, thus a percentage of 2279 / 36581 = 6.2%, meaning that the remaining 93.8% of the time, you're winning with 1 unit flat bets, all commissions included. This shows a great advantage in flat bet mode and some larger profit opportunities during trigger times. As mentioned in the launching newsletter, one can use the system betting flat only, or betting when the trigger opportunity comes or, my favorite, betting at all times taking advantage of both features. The drawdown per run is the amount of the max bet, whatever you have chosen it to be, 10, 50 or 500 units, the reason for that is that the run ends the moment you place your large bet, win or not. As per the total drawdown for the entire test period of those 500 shoes, the largest drawdown happens to be the same amount: 543 units for a 500 unit max bet, meaning that after an initial drawdown, the profits always remain on the positive side, as you can see by the performance chart at: The buy in is your max bet amount and the lifetime bankroll is six times that amount to be on the safe side. Q: This is from the web page: Should one decide to bet only 40 units on the higher bet, TS will generate 1,019.90 units averaging about 2 units per shoe. The end profit is in full proportion to the amounts based during the trigger time. On short term play, one has numerous opportunities to quit ahead even with a maximum bet of 10 units. So I take this to mean that with a max bet of 10 units this did not beat Zumma and if it did what were the results? I just want to know what is the new in this system that makes you feel that it is so strong. A: With 10 units max bet, TS comes a bit short to beat the entire Zumma. That's why it was profits for short term. In order to beat Zumma the smallest max bet is 17 units. Here are some stats that show profitability level with different max bet values: Minimum Bet: 1 Maximum Bet: 17 End Profit: 26.30 Minimum Bet: 1 Maximum Bet: 18 End Profit: 69.50 Minimum Bet: 1 Maximum Bet: 19 End Profit: 112.70 Minimum bet is always 1, so I won't mention it any further below: Maximum Bet: 20 End Profit: 155.90 Maximum Bet: 25 End Profit: 371.90 Maximum Bet: 30 End Profit: 587.90 Maximum Bet: 40 End Profit: 1,019.90 Maximum Bet: 50 End Profit: 1,451.90 Maximum Bet: 60 End Profit: 1,883.90 Maximum Bet: 80 End Profit: 2,747.90 Maximum Bet: 100 End Profit: 3,611.90 Maximum Bet: 150 End Profit: 5,771.90 Maximum Bet: 200 End Profit: 7,931.90 Maximum Bet: 300 End Profit: 12,251.90 Maximum Bet: 400 End Profit: 16,571.90 Maximum Bet: 500 End Profit: 20,891.90 Maximum Bet: 1,000 End Profit: 42,491.90 TS is very strong as no other system is as consistent as TS in terms of keeping this kind of profit proportion. Q: If my math is correct you are placing the large bet about 4.5 times per shoe or about every 20 decisions is that correct? A: The trigger opportunity occurs 6.2% of the time. 1 in 20 decisions would be 5% of the time, so it's a bit higher. If a shoe has 75 decisions, 4.65 times for each shoe in average would be accurate. Q: If the system wins 400+ units flat betting why do you have to go to the 17 unit progression to make a profit? Will you make a profit flat betting in either craps or roulette where the vig is built into the game instead of paid at end like bac? If so is it a similar win % to bac? Gracias. A: The system generates 400 more wins than the best bet selection. And you don't have to go into any kind of progression if you don't feel like it. It's just that the flat bet system will not generate 30,000 units the way the progressive one does. And by the way, it's not a progression. It's only one high bet, that's it. That high bet also need not be too high. 20 units are sufficient. And because the trigger situations also win more than not, only that in itself creates a flat bet advantage, should you want to bet only when the trigger comes. The system can be used in either low bets flat bet mode only, or in trigger mode only, or in a combined fashion. Totally flexible. The system has been tested for all even bet games: Roulette, Craps, Baccarat, Sic-Bo and War and the resulting win/loss percentage is similar. Within 15,000 roulette spins, there were also 400 more wins generated just by the bet selection. Q: The flat bet advantage appeals more to me. The returns of large bets are not attractive considering the 17X or more put at risk. What is the average profit per shoe if one places flat bet only? You said that "To close a run in TS is either by keep betting 1 unit flat until one is ahead. ". We should close a run when we are ahead by how many units in a shoe? A: I ran a simulation with TS with flat bets only, ignoring the trigger situations. TS generates an average of 2 units per shoe. A run is closed the moment one is ahead by any positive amount. Q: Izak, even with the large bet only winning 73 more units than losses would it not be better to only make the large bet (73 X 40=2920) vs 1000 making all bets at the 40 unit level? A: The choice is totally yours. And those are your choices: 1) Use only 1 unit flat bets throughout. 2) Since you have a flat bet advantage, use large bets throughout 3) Use large bets only for trigger points only 4) Use any size (even small bets) for trigger points only 5) Use large bets including regular flat bets and trigger points 6) Use small bets throughout including trigger points. 7) Use small bets flat during regular times and large bets during trigger points. I thank all of you who have shown a great interest in TS. TS goes for $480, which is a very small price to pay for a system that will make you huge profits. As you have seen from its performance chart, TS has a potential to generate 30,000 units. If you purchase TS from now until the end of the year 2012, you can have a 50% discount and acquire the system for $240 only, a super deal. With $10 extra, you can have a printout of the system document delivered to you by first class mail. Your satisfaction is guaranteed. If not, you can have a full refund totally unconditionally within 30 days of your purchase, no strings attached, no questions asked. Click here to order. Thank you, Izak Matatya Wishing you all the best, Izak One of the most logical systems ever designed: Imagine a betting system on even chances with a success rate of 97%! Is this a typing error? No, by using this system you’ll indeed succeed in 97% of your attacks on the roulette, on the baccarat or on the craps table. ¡Espere! Now you’ll be probably thinking “I know systems that are 99% right and will still lose badly during the 1%”. This 1% loss will then be more than enough to eat all your profits made during the 99% winnings. And – very sadly - that’s true. So, is this also such a system? You won’t give back your profits when losing 3 times out of 100. Because you’ll win on average 1 point on each game in the long run, LOSSES INCLUDED. This is statistically determined and the way it's calculated is the following: Your total risk for a session is 57 units. If out of 100 games you lose 3 times, your loss becomes 171 units. However, you will win at least 93 times an average of 3 units amounting to 279 units. Your net profit for the 100 games will be 108 units giving you a net profit of 1 unit on the long run. One game doesn’t take long: it will be around 10 minutes only. Winning 10 units a day should be your goal and you shouldn’t go over that. Your average profit/attack will be 3 units: only 4 to 5 games lasting only 10 minutes will cover your daily goal of 10 units! Bankroll needed is 100 units. Can you imagine what this means when playing with 100 usd units? You would earn US$ 1,000 a day during MOST of your visits to the casino! Wave is also one of the easiest systems to apply, even in a very busy casino and even if they hardly leave you time to breath. There are not much notes to take and if you’ve got a good memory, you could even do without writing down anything. So most of your visits will be an effortless and very profitable game for you when using Wave. The system is only $80 delivered to you by email and $85 by regular air mail. Upon your purchase you get an additional system for free - the 2-Chop System sold for $60. Unlimited system support is included. After obtaining Wave, you’ve got two weeks to test a full month of roulette on the Wiesbaden Casino You proceed as follows: - start each day of the most recent full month with the first spin - your goal is to obtain 10 points profit / day - after reaching your goal, you stop for that day and your following test will be on the following day of that month - if you’d ever lose your full bankroll of 100 units during this test month, you’ll be refunded So what is your risk? You test on the results of a full month roulette of the Wiesbaden Casino without any real money, so you don’t risk a single dollar. If you lose your (virtual) bankroll, you’ll promptly get a refund without discussion. So your total risk = $0 Things can’t be more honest and fair than this. Frequently Asked Questions on Wave System Q: In Wave, it's specified that out of 100 games you lose 3 and win 93. If you loose 3 games from 100 then isn't it that must win 97 times and not 93? A: Yes, that is correct. What is meant is that it is sufficient to win 93 games out of 100 in order to be ahead by at least one unit per spin in average. Q: The information on this new method is rather brief. Could you answer some questions? 1- I assume this is a method for picking R/B etc. Izak has a method - FBMP - which is also used to predict. What makes your method of bet selection so good? A: This method is totally different in its selection procedure and is based on probabilities. Q: 2- Does the method have a money management component or is it flat bet? A: A progression is used (in fact one main and one alternative). Q: 3- Does the method pick the even money chance more than 50% of the time? A: You should rather think in won attacks: and they are VERY high (one attack is composed of a few spins). Q: 4- Anything else you can tell me about it would be appreciated. A: Consider Wave a sure winner with one special extra: it is extremely fast in obtaining its goal. Zamiast wstępu Zadaniem bloga jest znajdowanie i katalogowanie najciekawszych i najnowszych ofert bonusowych od bukmacherów z całego świata. Aby ułatwić nawigację, oferty zostały pogrupowane w taki sposób, aby każdy z łatwością dotarł do tego, czego oczekuje. Wszystkie firmy bukmacherskie oferujące bonusy zostaną niebawem dokładnie opisane pod kątem surebetów Betfair - Bukmacher w specjalnym temacie temu poświęconym w serwisie www.betfairbonus.pl Nauka tradingu i surebetów Archiwum Spread trading strategies overview A lot of Forex traders use a plethora of trading indicators, others praise by technical or fundamental analysis, automatisation lovers are constantly trying to make an automatic money printing machine (but then again - who wouldn’t like that?) by programming expert advisors, there are also Martingale systems, neuron network, D’Alembert and many others… They all share one common flaw - these are all attempting to predict the market’s movement or react to current situation, e.g. are directional trading strategies. We’ll cover three of so-called market-neutral strategies based on quantitative mathematical principles, all being particular cases of spread trading trading system class. Each of these three is easily able to deliver that "statistical advantage" highly sought by "orthodox" traders. Okay, let’s go! First I’d like to introduce you to the concept of spread instrument. Everything can be viewed as a spread instrument of the following formula: where X j is the price of a trading symbol (say, EURUSD at 1.3550), w j is its weight coefficient (most common is 1, of course). A simple example, Forex arbitrage with two brokers! We’ve got arbitrage basics covered in our Forex arbitrage article, this formula will "deepen" your arbitrage knowledge and understanding. The formula looks approximately like that: So, every pair, portfolio or arbitrage trading strategy is a particular case of spread trading. Just to set the theoretical ground… Now, a brief guide to strategies which can be employed with Megatrader . We’ll cover three main ones: Pair trading Futures and currency spread trading Index/portfolio arbitrage 1. Pair trading Perhaps the most popular out of the three.It’s a market-neutral (mostly) and rather versatile, but requires some math knowledge to achieve good results with. The main idea - we’re having a pair of fundamentally (preferably) connected assets, like, the easiest example - two Google stocks, one giving a vote right (GOOGL), or a privileged one, and a common stock - GOOG: One asset influences another, so their prices move in some kind of symmetry - as one plunges downward, another will likely follow and vice versa. This "symmetry" is called correlation. Correlation is a term used in econometrics and statistics to measure two or more timeseries' mutual movement connection. Correlation is computed into the correlation coefficient, which ranges between -1 and +1. A correlation of +1, or full positive correlation, means that two timeseries (in our example - two securities' prices) move completely in accord one with another.Vice versa, a correlation of -1 (perfect negative correlation) shows that on a positive change of one timeseries we're having a negative change of a same fraction in another. In the case of zero correlation, the movements are having no correlation and are random e.g. have absolutely no connection. Google stocks may be a little "biased", so let’s pick another example of different securities, like, GLD and SLW (both are mining companies): These have a correlation of 0.89 (pretty high!) and as can be seen, move in accord. Now, let’s adapt those to our spread formula: As can be seen, the resulting spread instrument is revolving around a mean value of 47 dollars. So, we can just "buy" this spread instrument (by buying GOLD and selling SLW according to the formula) when it’s on highs and sell on mean reverting/low values. Of course, not everything is as simple as it looks, BUT there are a couple of websites that can help you check for stock/other asset correlation, such as: http://www.aistockcharts.com/ (left sidebar, Correlations tab) http://www.impactopia.com/correlation/ (enter a stock ticker and press Correlations, most and least correlated symbols will be output) And many others! Now, on to our second strategy - futures and currency spread trading . 2. Futures and currency spread trading It’s a very "large" strategy, with hundreds of combinations, and its advantage is that most combinations, being fundamental and/or seasonal, are well-known. With Megatrader, futures spread trading using CFD contracts can be employed, which have both numerous advantages and some drawbacks compared to standard futures contracts, the advantages are being able to get a higher leverage when using CFD contracts and the ability to use fractional lots, both allowing for more effective trading capital usage, and the disadvantage is the OTC nature of CFD contracts (Over The Counter), they are mostly not regulated (however there already are exchange CFDs and DMA CFDs so this drawback is negligible). So, you may ask - what kind of spreads can I trade? Por ejemplo: Calendar spreads . using the same contract with different expiration dates - like Corn March vs September spread. However, usually the closest contracts are used. Intercommodity spread . such as Gold - Silver, or “grain” spread of wheat - corn. There are many known combinations, crack spreads, crush spreads (for example, Oil - Heating oil or Oil - Gas, also one notable example is Soy beans - Soy oil, e.g. commodities that depend on and influence each other - correlated commodities.) Intermarket spreads - this one shines when using CFDs, because it’s usually rather hard to employ at futures brokers. Notable examples can be SP500 - DAX, or other spreads. Currency spreads - mostly those are based on some countries’ economies’ connection, or a country being a big exporter/importer of some commodity and being "tied" to its price. And many others… Let’s have a deeper look at each of the spread types! 1. Calendar spreads are most commonly traded by fund managers, because they are a low-risk and moderate return strategy. They are also called "horizontal spreads" (if you look at a futures expiration calendar as a line, they indeed are spreaded horizontally, so that’s correct). Here’s a common chart of a calendar spread: It’s easy to assemble and easy to trade due to it’s naturally reverting nature. So, the basics are: You should have an instrument which has expiration dates - most common one is a futures contract. Usually, when you look at a next expiration contract (for example, looking at November’s expiration contract in July, before the closest one expires) - you see a lot of gaps, liquidity is absent resulting in crazy slippages. However, when approximately 30% time to closest contract’s expiration remains, traders and fund managers start to "roll" into the next contract (most seasonal and hedging traders operate high volumes so they cannot just press "Buy Market" button, they have do accumulate a trading position over time), liquidity starts to pour into next contract, spreads become better, gaps are almost nonexistant. So, it’s time to trade a calendar spread! It can be either made as a Closer-Further spread, or vice versa, a Further-Closer spread, it doesn’t matter. Here’s how it looks in Megatrader: As can be seen, even the most simple trading strategies will work on such a synthetic instrument, truly a "buy low - sell high" situation! However, you should remember there may be some pitfalls: As it’s an easy to implement and trade strategy, there are lots of traders eager to "get a piece of that pie", so placing your server near your broker/exchange will possibly make your trading results much better. 2. Intercommodity and Intermarket spreads Those are widely used in the futures market, because it’s literally flooded with fundamentally tied and thus highly correlated instruments: Brent and WTI oil, soybeans and soybean oil, cocoa/coffee/sugar, corn and wheat and many other combinations. Why are those correlated? It’s rather simple: think a bit - what would happen with soy oil (made from soy beans price, but that’s an insider secret, so don’t tell anyone!) in the case of a big soybean harvest? The soybean price will drop, of course, because offer will prevail over request. The companies will be able to purchase the beans for a lower price and produce "cheaper" soybean oil, which will also come in abundance. So, we’ve come to a conclusion that soybeans and soybean oil are highly correlated fundamentally. There are several spread types: crack-spreads - between crude oil (WTI/Brent) and its products like heating oil and gasoline, crush spreads - spreads between soybeans and their products like soybean oil and soybean powder, commodity spreads between tied instruments like gold-silver, platinum-silver, palladium-silver and many other "metal" spreads, also currency spreads (can easily be done with Forex instruments instead of CFDs) and index spreads (like DOW-SP500, DAX-FTSE and other fundamentally correlated indexes). The variety is grand! Let’s have a look at how an intercommodity spread, say, a crack spread : Pretty stationary, isn’t it? Most spread charts, when "made up" correctly are similar to that one. Forex market, being a "closed", or self-contained, system, implies cross-currency rates dependence on "major" currency exchange rates. In fact, Forex market is always supposed to be in full parity (if not - banks and marketmakers will guide it to parity very fast, be sure of that) to eliminate risk-free profit opportunities for market participants. However, it’s not the only interdepence on Forex. Because of some countries’ close economical relations (it’s not what you thought of!) their national currency rates start closely correlating, or in the case of a country being a major exporter/importer/producer of some exchange traded commodity - correlating with a futures commodity. Some examples: WTI oil and USDCAD… AUDUSD and Gold (/GC or XAUUSD)… Currency correlation can be viewed and analysed on following websites: 3. Index/portfolio arbitrage Lots of complex instruments are traded on world’s exchanges. Instruments consisting of 2 or more constinuents. What are these? For example, the mighty DAX - it consists of 30 biggest Germany stocks. Or another example - Exchange Traded Funds, which can consist of 2-6000 instruments! Those are THE spread instruments. However, price discrepancies occur between the instrument itself and the portfolio it consists of, and they can be "created" synthetically. First, to employ this strategy, one needs to know the constinuents of an instrument AND how are they calculated. An index instrument can also be reproduced by our spread formula, for example, DAX will be as follows: DAX = 0.1*EOA + 0.097*SIE + 0.078*ALV + 0.077*BAY +. + 0.004*HNR1 . So the idea is as follows - we "create" an index of our own from the instruments and then do arbitrage-typed pair trading! The versatility is in the eye of the beholder: there are thousands of index instruments, and we can always "play" with the weights or constinuents, omit some, or interchange a constinuent for a highly-correlated asset. The possibilities are nearly endless. Should I say why index arbitrage is the strategy of choice of a majority of hedge funds? Let’s have a look at a possible chart of it (used XLE ETF fund - Energy Sector - versus a basket of stocks it consists of): It can easily be seen reverting to its mean, zero. Pretty easy to trade, again, and quite possible to automate using Bollinger Bands. Conclusión As can be seen, these three strategies are: Not "rocket science", with a couple of days to grasp one’s mind around them, they can be implemented by a novice-to-intermediate trader. Quite low-risk, because you’re constantly hedged (one instrument against another) and mostly market-neutral. Potentially profitable - especially using leveraged CFDs, instruments funds don’t have much access to. Very variable - you don’t have to compete (mostly) with other people, as you do when trading arbitrage situations - you can just create "your own" index or pair spread and trade on your own. NEWS Backing by the D'Alembert staking plan Back on a selection according to the D'Alembert plan. The plan itself is described here . The triggers are very similar to those provided in the trigger example called "Laying according to the D'Alembert staking plan". The only change we made is replace "lay" with "back" and remove the exchange commission correction, as it's irrelevant to this very case. Here's a screenshot of a sample account statement. Try for FREE We do not sell a pig in a poke. No obligation trial is here Learn Learning videos, trigger examples, how tos and support Screenshots Closer look at significant features Videos See MarketFeeder in action. Learn how to operate it Triggers The shortest way to learn how to write your own triggers FAQ We've answered a lot of questions that you might ask Articles Detailed explanation of some useful techniques Help file in PDF Download for offline use Time Machine The unique way to speed up your testing Forum users online communicate with traders like you If some one will help me, I will provide the full course being sold on the internetwhich describes the the Binary Equation Strategy. You can check my site - www.profitsareup.com This is my site, so I am not providing any "bootleg" material. The assistance of one of you programming experts would be greatly appreciated. The strategy/Expert Advisor needs to work on these simple rules: (1) Determines the High and Low of the period starting at 3:00 GMT and ending at7:00 GMT (the "Tracking Period"). (2) Beginning at 7:00 GMT and ending at 13:00 GMT it looks for a breakout from theHigh or Low of the Tracking Period. This is the "Trade ssssion". Breakout is defined as pricegoes 5 pips above the High, or 5 pips below the Low. (3) Takes a BUY on a breakout from the High and takes a SELL on a breakout fromthe Low. (4) Uses a Stop Loss and Take Profit on each trade (15 pips for each). (5) Takes only ONE trade during the trade session. (but, if it gets a "requote"needs to still try to enter the trade) That's all there is to it. Then, the whole thing repeats for a second session, in which: Tracking Period starts at 10:00 GMT and ends at 14:00 GMT and the Trade Session is from 14:00 GMT through 20:00 GMT. My material sells for $79 but is worth far more, so if you are willing to help withthis you will be well compensated. is this the system we are talking about? The d'Alembert System Another popular roulette system is the d'Alembert system. This system assumes thatafter a win, a player is less likely to win again. So after a win, you subtracta chip from your bet. The d'Alembert system also assumes that you'll be less likelyto lose after a losing spin, so in that case, you add a chip to your bet. The flawin this thinking is that the roulette wheel has no memory, and each spin is anindependent trial with exactly the same odds of a win or loss as the previous spin. irusoh1 wrote: is this the system we are talking about? The d'Alembert System Another popular roulette system is the d'Alembert system. This system assumes thatafter a win, a player is less likely to win again. So after a win, you subtracta chip from your bet. The d'Alembert system also assumes that you'll be less likelyto lose after a losing spin, so in that case, you add a chip to your bet. The flawin this thinking is that the roulette wheel has no memory, and each spin is anindependent trial with exactly the same odds of a win or loss as the previous spin. No, it's not. The Binary Equation is only remotely related to d'Alembert by the principle of increasing trade sizeto recoup losses. d'Alembert, when used in a casino, will eventually lose becauseyour bet size will run into the "table limits" eventually and keep youfrom being able to increase your bet size. In trading, there is no such thing as a "table limit", so, if you hadenough cash, you would always eventually win with a d'Alembert strategy in Trading.Nevertheless, the Binary Equation is NOT the d'Alembert strategy and does NOT doublethe trade size after each loss. There is also a second important distinction with trading as opposed to games ofchance. Although it is true that dice have no memory, a tossed coin does not knowif heads or tail came up last, etc. Trading is NOT 100% random in its outcomes. Markets do NOT move completely randomly. They tend to trend. So, if we have a method for determining the current trend direction and take our trades in that direction, we do NOT get random results. Binary doesuse a method of determining current trend direction and it does take its tradesin that direction. The method is not complicated, and it certainly is not anythingclose to 100% accurate - - but it is consistently 50-55% accurate, so l o n g stretchesof losing trades are avoided. Binary combines the mathematical calculations of increasing odds for a certain outcome from random events, witha strategy which keeps our results from being totally random. And that is why it works so well. So when do you close the trade? I guess the whole trick here in how many lots tobuy for each trade. Mike, send me complete strategy, I'll write you an EA. [email protected] How to Make a Living Using Binary Options Without Leaving Your Home Click here to view original web page at cointelegraph.com Binary option trading has become an attractive form of investment for cryptocurrency enthusiasts and bitcoin traders due to its stability and predicted income. Typically, investing in cryptocurrencies, such as bitcoinCT r: 8 . generates high profit margins if the volatility and the fluctuation of the bitcoin price are used to the trader’s advantage. However, predicting the price trend of bitcoin is a virtually impossible task to accomplish and doing so comes with great risks of large losses. Losses hard to predict One major issue with trading cryptocurrencies, such as Bitcoin and Ethereum. is that, like the profit margins, the magnitude of the losses are difficult to predict and thus, investors may find themselves in a difficult position to recover financially and protect their assets. If the price trends of the world’s largest cryptocurrencies are evaluated, it is evident that digital currencies could spike up to 4x or vice versa in a very short period of time. An increasing number of bitcoin traders and digital currency enthusiasts have been trading binary options for this very purpose. Instead of risking large sums of bitcoin or other reserve currencies to a fairly high probability of a loss, binary options allow the traders to foresee their predicted gains and loss, to prepare for what may happen in the future. The advantage of trading binary options is that traders and investors can implement various strategies to reduce the risk of a loss. It is possible for traders and investors to decrease the risk of fixed losses in trading binary options by implementing various strategies which are better known as platform-independent strategies. Users and traders with little or no knowledge in the investment pattern or price trend of Bitcoin can use these strategies to neutralize any losses and optimize their gains. Martingale system One of the oldest strategies amongst platform-independent strategies is the Martingale system. In this investment structure, an initial stake and a position are established. If the binary option trading succeeds, the stake remains the same. If not, then the stake is doubled for the next position. The concept behind this strategy is that the user will eventually make a successful binary option trade as time passes. Even if users fail to succeed in their past trades, it is possible for traders to neutralize their losses with an eventual gain in profit. D'Alembert system Another platform-independent strategy is the D'Alembert system. This strategy shares the same core concept and principles of the Martingale system, but uses a system of increasing the investment after a loss and decreasing it after a win. For example, if the initial stake is 1 unit, then a loss would mean that the next stake should be 2 units. A further loss would increase the stake to 3 units, then 4 units, etc. A win means you should decrease the stake by one unit, for example, from 4 units to 3 units. By intelligently implementing these strategies, independent traders can generate stable revenues and profit margins to support their living without ever leaving the warmth of home. Typically, investing in cryptocurrencies, such as bitcoinCT r: 8. generates high profit margins if the volatility and the fluctuation of the bitcoin price are used to the trader’s advantage. However, predicting the price trend of bitcoin is a virtually impossible task to accomplish and doing so comes with great risks of large losses. Losses hard to predict One major issue with trading cryptocurrencies, such as Bitcoin and Ethereum. is that, like the profit margins, the magnitude of the losses are difficult to predict and thus, investors may find themselves in a difficult position to recover financially and protect their assets. If the price trends of the world’s largest cryptocurrencies are evaluated, it is evident that digital currencies could spike up to 4x or vice versa in a very short period of time. An increasing number of bitcoin traders and digital currency enthusiasts have been trading binary options for this very purpose. Instead of risking large sums of bitcoin or other reserve currencies to a fairly high probability of a loss, binary options allow the traders to foresee their predicted gains and loss, to prepare for what may happen in the future. The advantage of trading binary options is that traders and investors can implement various strategies to reduce the risk of a loss. It is possible for traders and investors to decrease the risk of fixed losses in trading binary options by implementing various strategies which are better known as platform-independent strategies. Users and traders with little or no knowledge in the investment pattern or price trend of Bitcoin can use these strategies to neutralize any losses and optimize their gains. Martingale system One of the […] Deja un comentario Cancelar Responder Usted debe estar conectado para publicar un comentario. Estrategias de negociación In this article, the latest in our series on trading, we look at various sports betting strategies. Hopefully they will help you to enjoy greater profits. Which sports betting strategy is best? Sports betting strategy either employs a qualitative approach or a quantitative approach. The first looks at past results and data without applying any statistical analysis. This is good enough for most of us. Due to the large number of factors influencing the outcome of a sporting event it can be very complex to accurately predict such an outcome. However, if you have a head for figures there are sports betting ratings systems that can help with forecasting sports results. You’ll find that any sports betting professional we be following his own system. Not a betting system he has bought online, but, one he has perfected over time. So, if you are going to buy a betting system guide then bear in mind that no system will work if; there are lots of participants who follow the system accurately and regularly. The ‘weight of money’ on certain bets would cause the bookmakers to adjust their odds thus affecting the risk and return profile of the strategy. Next articles will give you the building blocks you need to develop your own sports betting system. Sports betting system or strategy? A sports betting system makes you think of something that you have to stick to rigidly. Placing the same bets systematically using the same signals time after time. If it works there is nothing wrong with this. However, when you first start, and before you develop your betting system, you will probably need to develop the methods you use. At this stage you are adjusting what factors you take into account and really you are developing a sports betting strategy. When you are happy with the risk and reward and the level of returns you may want to stick exactly to one method. As long as it still pays of course! I recommend further reading. There are lots of good sports betting books available. Choose a sports betting strategy and then mould it to what suits your temperament. Sports betting strategies and money management One of the most important aspects of good sports betting strategies is ensuring you control how much money you stake. In turn you know how much you might lose. Let’s have a look at which staking plans you can use with sports betting strategies. There are some good and bad staking plans. The plan you chose depends on what sports you will be betting on. A sensible staking plan is the level staking plan or fixed staking plan. As it sounds, you stake a fixed amount for each type of bet you are making. Bet types are divided into short odds, medium odds and long shots. Stick to this religiously to make it possible to forecast potential increase or decrease to the betting bank. The percentage risked should remain the same. It is best to risk a relatively small amount of your betting bank on each bet; up to 5%. Another sensible staking plan is an extended form of the fixed plan, and is known as ‘plateau’ staking. You bet a percentage of your betting bank. If you are doing well the amount you bet increases. Start losing the amount staked decreases. For a sports betting strategy I would recommend taking the best features of these two types of staking plan. As follows… …Use a point system of 1 to 10 ‘points’. Where 10, is being the strongest, most confident bet. You will learn how to decide what a confident bet is. First I would recommend looking at the odds, similar to the fixed staking plan (short, medium and long). A ‘point’ can be whatever amount you want. Some people might want to bet 5 EUR (or currency equivalent) per point, others, 100 EUR per point. Whatever you decide a ‘point’ means to you, it is advisable to stick closely to the staking plan. So, you would bet three times as much on a 3-point bet as you would a 1-point bet, twice as much on a 6-point bet as you would a 3-point bet, and so on. Then set an upper limit. For example, never risk more than 5% of the points you have in your betting bank. Less sensible plans Some taking plans involve increasing the stake each time to make up loses. These are called ‘negative progression systems’ like the Martingdale and the D’Alembert. You also get ‘positive progression systems’ and ‘cancellation systems’. The first only increases the stake when you are winning (good for confident traders). The so called cancellation system involves a loop allowing you to win or lose a certain amount before you repeat the loop. The positive progression and cancellation systems are too complicated in my opinion as they involve too much thought going into staking. However, for further reading consider the Labouchere or 1-3-2-6 systems for Asian Handicap betting. Also consider the Parlay or Paroli as types of positive progression systems. I will be looking at some of these in more detail using different sports as examples in the next article. User Rating: 0.0 ( 4 votes) The Martingale Betting System The Martingale betting system dates back to at least the 18 th century when gambling halls first gained popularity in Europe. It is most frequently applied to games like craps and roulette but can just as easily be applied to any game of chance. The reason that betting systems like the Martingale are not frequently used for skill-based games like blackjack and video poker is that there are real strategies that would be better employed to improve a player’s odds in those games. Furthermore, those games have betting maximums that would make it impossible to continue using the Martingale system in instances where players hit a long losing streak. Tener cuidado The Martingale system gives the player a high chance of winning a lot of small amounts and a low chance of losing a large amount, therefore typically users of the system will be better off in the short run. However be aware that it is inevitable that the player will eventually lose an amount so large that they go bust or hit the table limit and be unable to continue. How does the Martingale betting system work? The Martingale is probably the most popular betting system, not because of effectiveness, but because of simplicity. There are no complex equations to memorize here; anyone can quickly learn and use the Martingale system. The system works best on bets that have a near 50/50 chance of winning or losing, such as bets on the red or black of a roulette table. Players need only double their bet (or more) with every loss. For example, if a player wagers a minimum $1 bet on the black at the roulette table and subsequently loses, then according to the Martingale system’s rules they would then wager $2 on the next spin, again on the black and always staying on the black. If they lose again, then their next bet will be $4 and so on, doubling it after every loss. Then, when the player eventually wins they will recoup all of their losses plus a little more and their next bet will return to the original $1 to start the system again. What is the logic behind the Martingale betting system? At first glance, the Martingale betting system makes perfect sense. By doubling your bet (or more) after every loss, you ensure that when you do win you will win back all of your collective losses as well as a profit equal to your original bet. Returning to your original bet after every win also seems to limit your investment by keeping your wagers as low as possible. To step things up a bit and make the system pay off more quickly a player can recoup all of their losses plus a lot more if they decide to triple their bet after each loss instead of doubling it. Deciding to triple the bet after each loss must not be taken lightly though as it increases the risk exponentially as can be illustrated in the table of odds below. Why is the Martingale betting system flawed? The Martingale system may sound too good to be true to newcomers but it is no path to easy money and those using the system are exposed to unlikely but high value risks for little reward. The system manipulates statistics so the player has a high chance of winning a lot of small amounts in exchange for a low risk of losing a lot. The problem is that if the system is used by a player for long enough it is inevitable that the player will eventually hit a losing streak, making a huge loss that will wipe out all of the cumulative small wins they made over a long period of time. According to the law of statistics there is approximately a 0.1% chance of losing a 50/50 bet more than nine times in a row but if a player uses the system for 1,000 bets then they are likely to see this outcome once and that could spell huge losses. The other thing is that most table games like roulette have minimum and maximum bets, which do not work well with the Martingale system as players are likely to hit the maximum table bet at some point. Would the opposite of the Martingale betting system work? Many players both consciously and unconsciously utilize what is known as an anti-Martingale betting system. That is, they try to take advantage of positive fluctuations in the odds by only increasing their bets when they’re winning and by only making the minimum bet when they are losing. This may seem safer, because you are only betting more when you have already made a profit, but unfortunately the end result is the same. If you keep doubling your bets as you win, then ultimately when you finally lose you lose everything you have accumulated plus any minimum bets made between wins. Martingale Betting and “Sticky” bonos The Martingale System does work very well when wagering with non-withdrawable bonuses. It is not uncommon to find situations where you can deposit £100 and get as much as £400 in non withdrawable money that you can wager with. Some casinos have maximum win rates from these deposits which can reduce the benefits of playing games such as slots or video poker as you do not get to fully benefit from your winnings. Instead of playing the full Martingale system you can start with small bet sizes of whatever game you are playing and then if you have lost some of the money and keep increasing the size of your bets (but not depositing again) until you have either busted your deposit and bonus money or made a profit. The Best Online Casino to use the Martingale system Intercasino have a European Roulette game that display the minimum and maximum bets, allowing you to choose what tier of play you are interested in and also making you clearly aware of the table limits before you start play. Also, this game follows the La Partage rule that provides a house edge of just 1.35%, which is the lowest you can find at any casino online. It does this by having a single zero on the table and also giving you back half of an even money bet should you land on the zero. It also allows you to place quick bets, where the ball lands within a second or two so you can go through something like 10 bets a minute if you’re fast. The game itself is powered by Amaya Gaming so you wont find it everywhere. All these elements combined make Intercasino ‘s European Roulette a categorically great place to use any roulette system like the Martingale – just make sure you understand the system well first. Have you used the Martingale system? Have you ever used the Martingale system and what was the outcome? We would love to hear your experiences and thoughts in the comments below. Forget it all guys, the casino has the edge, therefore every system imaginable will fail in the long run. With sports however, you may be able to find a positive edge by analysing form and stats etc to find value in the prices offered by bookmakers. There is no system that can make a game where the casino has the edge profitable – sure you might get lucky in the short term, but do it every week and say goodbye to your money Leave a Response Cancel reply A Playtech and IGT powered casino that features a huge variety of top rated games. One lucky winning collected £5.1m in Beach Life game back in 2012 and multimillion £/$/€ jackpots are regularly on offer. A fully featured casino from a household name in the UK; Betfred is a very reputable brand and is licensed by the GRA in Gibraltar. Spread trading Most traders say that markets nowadays have changed, become more volatile and chaotic. They are definitely harder to trade than 5 or 10 years ago. Classical trading, which worked a couple of years ago, now doesn’t. So most traders are in search of “the magical tool” to predict the markets, often using complicated mathematic formulas or even astrology. People are in search of a robust strategy, which will produce stable profit despite all the market changes. One of this strategies is spread trading . Spread trading strategies overview A lot of Forex traders use a plethora of trading indicators, others praise by technical or fundamental analysis, automatisation lovers are constantly trying to make an automatic money printing machine (but then again - who wouldn’t like that?) by programming expert advisors, there are also Martingale systems, neuron network, D’Alembert and many others… They all share one common flaw - these are all attempting to predict the market’s movement or react to current situation, e.g. are directional trading strategies. We’ll cover three of so-called market-neutral strategies based on quantitative mathematical principles, all being particular cases of spread trading trading system class. Each of these three is easily able to deliver that "statistical advantage" highly sought by "orthodox" traders. Okay, let’s go! Forex arbitrage Some traders have probably noticed that speed of quoting at different forex brokers often differs. The reason for this may be: feed aggregation from different liquidity providers, such as banks, or broker’s cheating, such as quote feed smoothing. The gist of arbitrage on market is as follows: buy a thing, in our case a currency pair, cheap and imediately sell it for a higher price, profit being the difference of prices. Of course, one can get profit from such arbitrage only if this difference is higher than brokers’ spreads and commissions combined. Such operations are called classical (bipedal) arbitrage . The main advantage is the absence of risk, so it has zero drawdown. If one dealer quotes are always delayed to the other, it is better to use one-leg arbitrage . where orders are only sent to the broker with its quotes lagging. Risk Disclosure: Trading financial instruments carries a high risk and can lead to loss of all investments. Using the information and software products presented on this website, you agree on acting at your own risk and holding liability for any losses. Megatrader Ltd will not be liable for any losses incurred by the use of software products or software addons provided. All information on this website is provided solely for informational and/or educational purposes and should not be the basis for investment decisions. All examples presented on the website site are symbolic and do not imply a promise of return in the future. You understand that past performance is not a guarantee of future returns. Before you start trading, you should assess the risks using your experience and knowledge and understand them. New Age Roulette Beat the House by Frederick Lembeck In his book, Beat the House, Frederick Lembeck takes a look at the mathematical principals behind system playing. In one of my favorite roulette analogies of all time, the author compares the well known D'Alembert system to the act of day-trading on the stock market. This simple idea has stuck with me, and has influenced the way I think I about gambling and gambling systems. Beat the House looks at each individual bet on the roulette layout as well as systems to use on the craps table. Lembeck uses the well known D'Alembert system, but takes it to a whole new level. His theory on Betting Drift, and how to combat it are some of the most useful and thought provoking ideas printed in a gambling book in recent memory. Each page is packed with useful information as well as charts to show Fred using his systems in action. Well written and concise, even a new roulette player will quickly understand the table layout and how to put the systems into practice. Veteran players will be intrigued by Lembeck's views on gambling, morality, society and Drift Theory. Now out of print, Beat the House is difficult to find in book stores and libraries, but a copy can still be found on Amazon.com. I highly recommened that anyone interested in gambling systems, theory, or roulette in general take a look. Truly a gem, in today's marketplace of get-rich-quick ebooks and scam roulette systems, Beat the House stands above the field. Casinos love roulette; what other game attracts so many system players to a table where the casino dominates with a 5% edge? So how have some gambler's throughout history taken casino's for millions of dollars when the odds are so unfairly stacked against them? One way that historically proven to beat the casino is a biased wheel. A bias occurs when the wheel is improperly adjusted, or not perfectly even, causing certain numbers and sections to appear more frequently than statistics dictate they should. History of Biased Wheels Finding a bias wheel in a modern casino can be a very difficult challenge indeed. Most modern day casinos are able to monitor every spin of every wheel electronically; they regularly check and re-adjust. If a bias is suspected, there's a good chance that the casino will spot it before even the savvyest gambler. The idea of using a wheel bias first occured to engineer Joseph Jagger in 1873. Jagger hired six tellers to watch the wheels at the Monte Carlo, recording every spin. He soon noticed that nine numbers appeared more frequently on one of the wheels. Using this knowledge, Jagger was able of to take the casino for over $3 million (adjusted for inflation) in a matter of days. The casino soon wised up, but not before learning a costly lesson. In 1982, American gamblers in Britain were using wheel biases to beat the casinos. This prompted roulette wheel manufacturer John Huxley to design a new wheen with low-profile pockets and other modifications designed to slow the ball's descent. This help to alleviate the problem, but biased-wheel betting continued. In the 1990's, Gonzalo Garcia-Peyalo was able to record the results of thousands of spins at the Casino De Madrid, and analyze them with a computer. After spotting a bias, he was able to walk out with over 1 million Euro. and a lawsuit. The courts eventually ruled in his favor as his betting method did not interfere with the running of the game, and suggested the casino should fix it's wheel. Since then, casino's spend as much time as the bias-hunters to determine and stop wheels from having a bias. Knowing that even a 0.1 of a degree difference in equalibrium can cause a number or section to be exploited, wheels are often calibrated every day. Biased Wheels Online With all the rigorous watching of the wheels, how is one to determine a bias and beat the casino? One of the methods that some people are turning to is roulette software that attempts to pick patterns or biases. Probably the most famous example is Roulette Sniper. a program that tracks spins and lets players know where and how much to bet. Online casino's use two types of wheels: the first is a live wheel with a real ball, that actually spins, and picks numbers that the ball actually lands in; the second, and by far the most common is the RNG wheel. RNG stands for Random Number Generator, and these wheels simply display an animated wheel and ball, but the outcome is determined by a computer. RNG wheels do not, again for emphasis, DO NOT, have biases. Online casinos spend millions of dollars to make sure that the spins on their wheels are as random as possible, and no amount of software or tracking will ever produce a winning number based on previous spins. Software that claims to detect patterns on these wheels are simply looking for short term anomalies and generating bets based on the andruchi system. Most software begins giving numbers after a small number of spins, where a true bias wouldn't be determined until at least 1,000 spins have passed. Online casinos that use live roulette wheels to determine outcomes are subject to bias just like land casinos. Roulette software can be used effectively against them to determine a bias. Biased roulette wheels do exist and have been exploited for profit by professionals For a bias to occur, the wheel must truely be off. A minimum of 1,000 spins should be analyzed to determine any unusual occurences. RNG wheels used by online casinos do have, and never will, show a bias Roulette Software, such as Roulette Sniper. is ineffective at RNG wheels, and should not be used. Casinos are aware of wheel biases and do every thing in their power to prevent them! Finding a bias wheel in a casino in the modern age is much akin to finding a needle in a haystack. It can happen, and when it does, it is often very profitable. New technologies are being invented everyday to try and track the wheels, even the velocity of the ball and where it might land. For the casual gambler, attempting to find a bias wheel is too time-consuming, and trying to use software to outsmart the online casinos is foolish. It is my hope with this article that people will understand what a bias wheel is, and more importantly, what it isn't, so they can avoid being scammed by software that 'predicts' winning numbers. Good luck and happy playing! The Tail Spin system is a progessive betting system, first given it's name by Frederick Lembeck in his book Beat The House. Tail Spin is essentially a Martingale System that is tweaked to work on non-even money bets such as the dozens, columns, corners, and even straight bets. Like the Martingale it is extremely risky because the bets can escalate very quickly, but it only takes a single win to turn a profit! I will give an example of Tail Spin in action that I just played at bodog.com. The goal of Tail Spin, like the Martingale is to produce a profit of 1 (or more) units after every win, regardless of the percentage of spins won. Here is the series of spins I just played: Bet: Number: Win/Lose: Profit: 1 14 L -1 1 00 L -2 2 8 L -4 3 28 W +2 1 36 W +4 1 1 L +3 1 15 L +2 2 15 L 0 3 5 L -3 4 24 L -7 6 0 L -13 9 29 W +5 As you can see I saw 12 spins. Statiscally, I should have won 4 times. I only won 3 spins, but I was still about to turn a 5 unit profit by using the progessive betting system. Like the Martingale, Tail Spin aimes to recover all the loses, by at least 1 unit after each win. Since doubling won't work on non-even money bets, a different formula must be used. To play Tail Spin on the dozens, I had to keep track of how much I had lost in each progression, and order the next bet to make sure a win would still produce a profit. If you look at the chart, I lost on spins 6-11. By keeping a running total of my loss on the progression I was able to determine my bets. Bet: Win/Lose: Running Loss: Next Bet 1 L -1 1 1 L -2 2 2 L -4 3 3 L -7 4 4 L -11 6 6 L -17 9 9 W +1 1 (new progression) I was able to determine my next bet by understanding the payout of the dozens bet. The dozens and columns each pay out 2-1 meaning for every unit I bet, I will profit 2 units on a win. (More on bets and payouts, How to Play) By looking at my running loss, I can divide the number by 2 to see what I need to bet. On turn three, when I was down 4 units, I divided by 2 to give me two units. That would break even but not turn a profit, so I added an extra unit. On turn four, I was down by 7 units, dividing by two gave me 3.5 units, which I had to round up to four. Even though I only won 1 in 7 spins, I still made a profit on the progression. Play Online Roulette Test This System for Free!. The System gets it's name from the procedure a pilot takes during a tailspin. Instead of trying to stear the plane in the opposite direction, pilots are tought to turn into the spin. This system works the same way: when you're losing money, you keep throwing more money at it! It's quite a fitting title. Tail Spin can be a great system for the thrill seeker, but for a more meager gambler, the Modified D'Alembert is a much better choice for non-even money bets! The D'Alembert betting system is a progessive betting system named after French phyician Jean le Rond d'Alembert. It shares a quality of increases bets sizes after a loss with the Martingale. but unlike the Martingale, this system does not require a doubling bet size, keeping the progression from escalating too quickly. For this system, the gambler decides on a starting unit and an even money bet. From their, the gambler will decrease their bet by one unit after each win, and increase by one unit after every loss. The system figures that since black and red (or odd/even, high/low) each have the same percent chance to show, that over the long run, each will appear about the same number of times. If the gambler was betting a flat 1 unit on black, and after fifty spins, it won 25 times and lost 25 times, that player would break even. Using the D'Alembert system, the player would increase after a loss and decrease after a win. That way, when the number of wins and losses would be even, the player would be ahead by the number of wins. Por ejemplo: Even Betting: D'Alembert Bet: Win/Loss: Profit: Bet: Win/Loss: Profit: 1 L -1 1 L -1 1 W 0 2 W +1 1 L -1 1 L 0 1 W 0 2 W +2 1 L -1 1 L +1 1 L -2 2 L -1 1 W -1 3 W +2 1 W 0 2 W +4 You can see that the even betting player didn't lose any money, but he also didn't come out ahead. The D'Alembert player risked more money, but when he had won and lost 4 times each, he was still ahead 4 units. A good way to look at the D'Alembert system is that of how day-traders trade stock (this is a bare-bones example, bear with me). When they purchase a stock, and the price goes up, they can sell at a profit. If the price goes down, they can purchase more units of stock for the same price as there initial investment. When the stock price goes up the it's original starting price, the trader can sell all his shares and show a profit even though the net stock price did not increase. D'Alembert players use this same logic to justify that when all evens out, they will be ahead 0.5 units per spin that they saw. Test the D'Alembert System Learn and play roulette at Bodog. The D'Alembert system, like many others, is based on the Gamber's Fallacy. I prefer to justify the use the D'Alembert by looking at the day-trading example above. That doesn't change the fact that it's a losing system in the long run (they all are), it does give me a better understanding of where I'm at, and when is a good time to quit! You can follow the link above to give this system, or any of our free systems a shot at bodog.com. You're sitting at the roulette wheel, black has come up six spins in a row. The guy to your left bets big on black. "It's on a hot streak," he says. The guy to your right lays a big wager on red. "It's due." Neither of them. Surprisingly, many gamblers believe heavily in the Gambler's Fallacy, that is, that previous outcomes have an effect on the next spin. This is not the case. In the example above, where black has spun six times, the next spin has the exact odds of black or red coming up. 18/37. The wheel doesn't remember the last spin, and the ball doesn't care. Learn and play roulette at Bodog. Many betting systems, more notably the D'Alembert system, rely heavily on the gambler's fallacy to determine the bet size of the next spin. While these systems will show success please be advised that any system that relys on the gambler's fallacy will no doubt fail in the long-run. Each spin of the roulette wheel has a completely random outcome. The sooner you can understand, the better chance you have at winning at roulette. ¡Buena suerte! French roulette French Roulette is a form of Roulette which is played in casino’s only. The game is known as the queen of the casino games because it is one of the oldest games in the casino. At French Roulette, players put chips on a green playing table which has the numbers 1 to 36 on it. Besides that players can bet on single bets, these are the so called rouge and noir bets, or pair and impair bets which are the equal and the unequal numbers. French table roulette When the bet is made, the croupier swings the turntable to the left, opposite to the direction of the clock and he or she will immediately shoot a small bullet in this turntable. The name of the croupier who shoots the tiny ball into the playground is called the bouleur. The order of the numbers in the turntable is aimed numbers manque (1-18), passe (19-36), rouge, noir, pair and Impair to alternate as much as possible. (This design is attributed to the French mathematician, physicist and philosopher Blaise Pascal.) At one point, the exclamation rien ne va plus, “nothing is more ‘, there should no longer be used. Eventually the ball stops on the winning number, and this number the croupier calls out, in French, accompanied by the single winning opportunities, neuf, rouge, Impair et manque. This cardinal is used, except when one falls, then one says Prime Rouge, Impair et manque. Betting options French roulette Then the winning bets are paid, starting with the simple chances, that pay 1 to 1 and ending with any bets on a full number (and square payout 36 times the bet). If 0 is disappear the outside bets and prison and be put on a dedicated line, all other bets lose. If bets and prison alone win the next coup, they come free again, no profit or loss, otherwise they are lost. If the 0 twice in a row is the bets that are already en prison slid over the line and prison and the single opportunity to come out twice. Instead of prison and a player can also communicate with the bank bet. This gives the casino an advantage over smaller bets on simple chances, then on the other bets. The rule also applies, as French Roulette is offered in American style, but not in the real American roulette. French Roulette has several betting options which are explained below. Chances Simples; Single opportunities; 18 numbers; Rouge Noir, Pair, Impair, Manque (1 t / m 18) Passe (19 t / m 36) pays 2 times the bet (1 to 1). Douzaines; 12 numbers; “Premiere” (1 t / m 12), “Moyenne” (13 t / m 24), “Dernière” (25 t / m 36), pay three times the bet (1 to 2). Column; 12 numbers: the numbers 1 / m 36 are arranged in three columns, among the boxes 34, 35 and 36 you can bet on that column. The first column therefore contains numbers 1, 4, 7, 10, 13. t / m 34. pays the same as Douzaines. Transversal simple; 6 numbers, which lie next to each other in two rows, for example 10, 11, 12, 13, 14, and 15. Paying 6 times the bet (1 to 5). Carré; 4 numbers, which lie together in a square. For example, the first is next to the two upstairs and the fourth in the top left of 5. By placing a bet on the point between these four numbers one plays these four numbers. Another example of a square is 32, 33, 35 and 36. Carré can also be placed in combination with the 0, which is 0, 1, 2, and 3. Paying 9 times the bet (1 to 8). Transversal pleine; Three numbers in a row for example 1, 2 and 3, or 22, 23 and 24. A tranversale and square can also be played with the 0 in the combinations 0, 1 and 2 or 0, 2 and 3. Pays 12 times the bet ( 1 to 11). Cheval; 2 numbers, which are located above and below each other, or side by side, for example, 2, and 5 or 4 and 5 or 5 and 6 or 5 and 8. Paying 18 times the bet (1 to 17). Square; single number pays 36 times the bet (1 to 35). Furthermore, people can bet on 0-play “(jeu de zéro), ‘big series,’ ‘small series’, lesson Orphelins or a song with ‘neighbors’ (x et voisins). They play a certain amount of numbers, which are spread throughout the deployment tableau, but on the turntable are all adjacent to each other. These bets are placed the dealer on behalf of the player. In French Roulette American style, the dealer has a separate image of the order of the numbers on the dial next to the insert panel, which he can place these bets quickly. With traditional French roulette croupiers know the order of the numbers on the dial by heart. In true American roulette (with a 0 and a 00), these betting options do not exist, the numbers are there a different order on the turntable. Do you wanne “play” with me? Casino news, strategy & trics 2016 French Roulette is a form of Roulette which is played in casino’s only. The game is known as the queen of the casino games because it is one of the oldest games in the casino. At French Roulette, players put chips on a green playing table which has the numbers 1 to 36 on it. Besides that players can bet on single bets, these are the so called rouge … Más European roulette is a casino game named after the French word meaning ‘’little wheel’’. In the game, players may choose to place bets on either a single number or a range of numbers, the colours red or black, or whether the number is odd or even. To determine the winning number and color, a … Más American roulette is a game which is really similar to the French roulette game. The difference between these two games lie in the two green spots at the American roulette game. These spots carry the numbers 0 and 00. This is to enlarge the chance of winning for the casino from 1/37 to 1/19 and 1/74 on single bets. The characteristic part of … Más Play on your smartphone mobile roulette! Finally time has come! Mobile Roulette is now available for lovers of the great casino game. Throughout the past years all these games where running on Flash software but the developers of software Netent now brought a complete new product into the market. … Más New articles and roulette news 2016 There are a lot of strategies to play roulette in the casino. One of the less known strategies is the One Hit Wonder method. This system or strategy is not hard to understand and can be used quite easy at a game of roulette. The aim of the strategy is to remember which number has not fallen for quite a long time. When a player has figured out which … Lee mas Evolution Live Roulette offers more, for example multiple game variants, the highest number of mainstreams, VIP and native speaking dealer software and dedicated tables for optimum control over the online brand. The site also offers Dual play roulette, which brings together land-based and online players at the same on-premise tables. Then there are … Lee mas Besides having fun and experience some thrill when playing roulette, making some money is very important. For getting the last achieved people should use a system of a kind of strategy. One of these strategies is called the system of D’Alembert. This system works quite easy and does not asks a lot of thinking from the player. The strategy works … Lee mas The game of Roulette is quite an old game dating back from the 1700s. The word ‘Roulette’ means small wheel. The most believed story about the game is that a French guy called Blaise Pascal.This guy was graduated in risk calculation, maths, and invented the roulette wheel in 1655. the original wheel of roulette existed for almost two decades until Francois and Louis Blanc got involved. The French also added a "0" to the roulette wheel so that 37 slots in the wheel numbered 0 through 36 to increase the probability House unchanged. This method … Más About the website Roulette.casino is the number one roulette website in the world. We will give you all the information of this popular game in (online) casinos. You will found on this website the best strategy. roulette bonuses. software and mobile games. Also you will find a wiki about the differente games as mini, live roulette, 3d and all the styles as American, European and French roulette. Do you wanne “play” with me? Casino news, strategy & trics 2016 There are a lot of strategies to play roulette in the casino. One of the less known strategies is the One Hit Wonder method. This system or strategy is not hard to understand and can be used quite … [Read More. ] Evolution Live Roulette offers more, for example multiple game variants, the highest number of mainstreams, VIP and native speaking dealer software and dedicated tables for optimum control over the … [Read More. ] Besides having fun and experience some thrill when playing roulette, making some money is very important. For getting the last achieved people should use a system of a kind of strategy. One of these … [Read More. ] One of the oldest roulette systems is the Pivot Strategy. This strategy is very often used by gamblers around the world and is therefore pretty reliable. The system is, just like any other roulette … [Read More. ] High-definition video streaming, multi-language support and multi-window games make Microgaming Live Dealer irresistible to players who want to enjoy baccarat, roulette and blackjack the way they were … [Read More. ] 23 september 2015 By Roulette18 This article contains seven unreal stories about casinos. The first story is about Harry Watanabe. Harry Watanabe founded a gift shop in 1932. This shop was called the Oriental Trading Company and … [Read More. ] Wikipedia D'Alembert, Jean Le Rond. " Geneva → ." The Encyclopedia of Diderot & d'Alembert Collaborative Translation Project. Translated by Nelly S. Hoyt and Thomas Cassirer. Ann Arbor: Michigan Publishing, University of Michigan Library, 2003. Web. [fill in today's date in the form 18 Apr. 2009 and remove square brackets]. <http://hdl.handle.net/2027/spo.did2222.0000.150>. Trans. of "Genève," Encyclopédie ou Dictionnaire raisonné des sciences, des arts et des métiers, vol. 7. Paris, 1757. D'Alembert, Jean Le Rond. " Geneva → ." The Encyclopedia of Diderot & d'Alembert Collaborative Translation Project. Translated by Nelly S. Hoyt and Thomas Cassirer. Ann Arbor: Michigan Publishing, University of Michigan Library, 2003. http://hdl.handle.net/2027/spo.did2222.0000.150 (accessed [fill in today's date in the form April 18, 2009 and remove square brackets]). Originally published as "Genève," Encyclopédie ou Dictionnaire raisonné des sciences, des arts et des métiers, 7:578–578D (Paris, 1757). highlight hits: on | apagado When this article by d'Alembert appeared in 1757, Diderot's friend Friedrich Melchior Grimm inserted the following comment in his Correspondance littéraire. an account of the latest events in the literary world of Paris, which he regularly sent to various German princes: This article "is causing a great stir: its author very rashly asserts that the theologians of Geneva → are Socinians, and even deists; this represents a particularly bad blunder by M. d'Alembert since he surely had no intention of incurring the displeasure of the Republic of Geneva → ." [1] It may seem surprising that such an attack on one of the editors of the Encyclopédie should come from a close friend of Diderot and appear in a periodical to which Diderot himself frequently contributed. Yet even if this comment was not inspired by Diderot, it certainly expressed his own reactions, for " Geneva → " proved to be the single most controversial article of the Encyclopédie. and the storm of controversy it provoked did much to endanger Diderot's cherished enterprise. The article owes a great deal to Voltaire. The previous year d'Alembert had visited Voltaire in Geneva → . and Voltaire had profited from this opportunity to further his own designs in the city in which he had recently taken up residence. It was Voltaire who was convinced that the ministers of Geneva → were really no longer Calvinists but enlightened Unitarians and even deists, though perhaps without knowing it themselves. He was anxious to help them shed the vestiges of their Calvinist past and, in particular, their aversion to the theater, which was and had always been his passion. He felt that d'Alembert's article would provide welcome reinforcement for his campaign to turn ← Geneva → into the city of philosophy, and his first reaction on receiving the seventh volume of the Encyclopédie was enthusiastic: "My dear courageous philosopher," he wrote to d'Alembert, "I have just been reading and rereading your excellent article ' ← Geneva → .' I feel that the Council and the people should be profoundly grateful to you; and you deserve to be thanked even by the ministers." [2] As it turned out the Genevans proved most ungrateful for d'Alembert's somewhat tactless suggestions on how to improve their city, and the ministers in particular were outraged at the suggestion that they no longer upheld the teachings of Calvin. A committee of nine was appointed by the city to draw up a declaration refuting d'Alembert's assertions; it also sent letters of protest to d'Alembert and Diderot, and tried, unsuccessfully, to get d'Alembert to retract his controversial remarks. The article displeased not only the Genevans, it also aroused the Catholics in France who rightly saw d'Alembert's praise of Genevan institutions as an indirect attack on Catholic orthodoxy. It was d'Alembert's misfortune that " ← Geneva → " appeared at the very time when the philosophes were under intense attack as a result of the attempted assassination of Louis XV, [3] and the unhappy editor saw his article used by his adversaries as a convenient club with which to destroy the Encyclopédie. A third onslaught from still another quarter followed in 1758: Jean-Jacques Rousseau, until recently a contributor himself to the Encyclopédie. came to the defense of his native city in his Lettre à M. d'Alembert sur les spectacles. Unlike d'Alembert's other critics, Rousseau was not aroused by the former's remarks on the religious opinions of the Genevans, but by the suggestion that ← Geneva → needed a theater. This he rejects indignantly on the grounds that the theater corrupts the moral fiber of a nation; d'Alembert, he implies, could scarcely have suggested anything more likely to bring about the downfall of ← Geneva → . In the midst of all this controversy d'Alembert resigned as coeditor of the Encyclopédie. He himself maintained that his decision had nothing to do with " ← Geneva → ," but it is certain that Diderot's displeasure, Rousseau's attack, and the violent criticism he received from both Protestants and Catholics were all persuasive arguments in favor of abandoning his exposed position. This "desertion," as Diderot called it, was a heavy blow: the Encyclopédie was deprived of an illustrious editor who was a member of the French Academy as well as of the Academies of Berlin, London, Stockholm, and Bologna; and many, among them Voltaire, expected that this resignation would mark the end of the Encyclopédie. That this did not happen is largely due to Diderot's decision to ride out the storm. [4] [Translator note] ← Geneva → . This city is situated on two hills, at the foot of the lake which today is named after the city but formerly was called Lake Leman. It is very pleasantly situated. On one side one sees the lake, on the other the Rhone, and all around the smiling countryside. Along the lake there are hills dotted with country houses while a few miles away rise the Alpine peaks, which are always covered with ice and look as if they were made of silver when on a fine day the sun shines on them. As a rich and busy trading center, ← Geneva → owes its prominence to the harbor, with its jetties, its boats, its markets, etc. as well as to its location between France, Italy, and Germany. The city has several fine buildings and attractive promenades. The streets are lighted at night and on the banks of the Rhone a very simple pumping machine has been installed that provides water even for the highest quarters, located a hundred feet above. The lake is approximately eighteen leagues long and four to five across at its widest point. It is a kind of little sea with storms and other remarkable phenomena. See Waterspout ( Trombe ), See Tidal Wave ( Seiche ), etc. and the Histoire de l'académie des sciences for the years 1741 and 1742. ← Geneva → lies on latitude 46.12, longitude 23.45. Julius Caesar mentions ← Geneva → as a city of the Allobroges who were then already under Roman dominion. He came to the city to oppose the passage of the Helvetii, today called the Swiss. As soon as Christianity was introduced, the city became a bishopric suffragan to Vienne. [5] At the beginning of the fifth century Emperor Honorius ceded it to the Burgundians. These were driven out by the Frankish kings in 534. When toward the end of the ninth [ sic ] century Charlemagne set out to war against the Lombard kings in order to free the pope (who rewarded him with the imperial crown), he passed through ← Geneva → and chose it as the meeting place of all his armies. Later the city was annexed to the German empire and it was here that Conrad assumed the imperial crown in 1034. Succeeding emperors, however, neglected to keep their eyes on the city since for three hundred years they were preoccupied with the great difficulties in their relationship with the popes. This enabled ← Geneva → gradually to throw off its yoke and to become an imperial city whose bishop was its prince, or rather its lord, for the authority of the bishop was tempered by the authority of the citizens. The coat of arms which it chose at that time gave expression to this mixed constitution: on one side an imperial eagle, on the other a key representing the power of the Church, with the device Post tenebras lux [Light after darkness]. The city of ← Geneva → kept these arms when it renounced the Roman Church. The keys [ sic ] in its coat of arms are now all it holds in common with the papacy. It is actually rather strange that ← Geneva → retained them after having broken, with a sort of superstitious zeal, all the bonds that could possibly bind it to Rome. ← Geneva → apparently thought that the device, Post tenebras lux. expressed so perfectly its present attitude to religion, that there was no need to change anything in its coat of arms. The dukes of Savoy, neighbors of ← Geneva → . repeatedly made covert attempts, sometimes with the aid of the bishops, to establish their authority over the city, but the latter resisted courageously, supported by its alliance with Fribourg and Berne. At that time, that is to say around 1526, the Council of Two Hundred was established. The ideas of Luther and Zwingli were beginning to penetrate. Berne had rallied to them, ← Geneva → received them favorably and was finally converted to them in 1535. The papacy was no longer recognized and since that time the bishop resides in Annecy. He still carries the title "Bishop of ← Geneva → " but has no more jurisdiction over the city than the bishop of Babylon has in his diocese. Between the two doors of ← Geneva → 's city hall one can still see a Latin inscription commemorating the abolition of the Catholic religion. In it the pope is called "Antichrist." This name, which the Genevans' fanatic love of liberty and innovation gave him in a century that was still half barbarous, today seems scarcely worthy of a city so imbued with the philosophic spirit. We venture to suggest that the Genevans replace this insulting and vulgar monument with an inscription that is truer, nobler, and simpler. For Catholics the pope is the head of the true Church, for reasonable and moderate Protestants he is a sovereign whom they respect as a prince without obeying him, but in a century such as ours there is no one for whom he is still the Antichrist. In order to defend its liberty against encroachment by the dukes of Savoy and by its bishops, ← Geneva → strengthened its position still more by an alliance with Zurich and, above all, with France. Thanks to this aid it resisted the weapons of Charles-Emmanuel and the wealth of Philip II, a prince whose memory is assured of the execration of posterity because of his ambition, his despotism, his cruelty, and his superstition. Henri IV, who had sent three hundred soldiers to help ← Geneva → . soon thereafter himself needed the city's help: it was of some use to him in his wars with the League [6] and on other occasions. This is the origin of the privileges which the Genevans, like the Swiss, enjoy in France. The Genevans, wishing to bring fame to their city, called in Calvin. He enjoyed a great and well-deserved reputation because he was a man of letters of the first rank, who wrote Latin as well as a dead language can be written, and French with a purity of style that was exceptional for his time. This purity, which our grammarians still admire today, renders his writings far superior to almost all others written in his century, just as today the works of the Messieurs of Port-Royal [7] still seem far superior to the barbarous rantings of their adversaries and contemporaries. Calvin was both an excellent jurist and as enlightened a theologian as a heretic can be, and together with the magistrates he drew up a compendium of civil and ecclesiastical laws that was approved in 1543 by the people and has become the basic code of the republic. The excess of ecclesiastical property, which before the Reformation fed the luxury of the bishops and their subordinates, was now used to found a hospital, a college, and an academy; but the wars in which ← Geneva → had to engage for almost sixty years prevented the arts and commerce from flourishing as much as the sciences. In 1602 the failure of the attempt by the duke of Savoy to scale the walls brought peace to the republic. The Genevans repulsed their enemies who had attacked by surprise, and they hanged thirteen of the leading enemy generals in order to give the duke of Savoy a distaste for such undertakings. They thought they were justified in treating men who attacked their city without a declaration of war as if they were highwaymen. The strange new policy of waging war without having declared it was not yet known in Europe; and even if it had then been followed by the great states, it would still be true that it is too much against the interest of small states ever to gain favor among them. When Duke Charles-Emmanuel saw himself repulsed and his generals hanged, he gave up the idea of conquering ← Geneva → . His example served as a lesson for his successors and since that time the city has been at peace and has not ceased to grow in population, in wealth, and in beauty. From time to time the tranquillity of the republic has been slightly disturbed by internal dissensions, of which the last broke out in 1738, [8] but peace was luckily restored by means of the mediation of France and the Swiss Confederation, while external security is today more firmly established than ever with two new treaties, one concluded with France in 1749, the other with the king of Sardinia [9] in 1754. It is very remarkable that a city, which scarcely counts 24,000 souls and has a fragmented territory containing fewer than thirty villages, is nevertheless a sovereign state and one of the most prosperous cities of Europe. ← Geneva → is rich because of its liberty and its commerce and often sees everything around it in flames without being in any way affected. The events that disturb Europe are only a spectacle for this city from which it profits without taking any part. Because it is linked to France by treaties and commerce and to England by commerce and religion, it maintains an impartial opinion on the rights and wrongs of the wars which those two powerful nations wage against each other, and at the same time it is too prudent to take any part in these wars. ← Geneva → judges all the sovereigns of Europe without flattery, insult, or fear. The city is well fortified, especially on the side facing the prince it fears the most, the king of Sardinia. The side bordering France has been left almost completely open and undefended. Military service, however, is performed as in a fortress city. The arsenals and military storehouses are well stocked and every citizen is a soldier, as in Switzerland or in ancient Rome. Genevans are permitted to serve in foreign armies but the state does not supply any power with bodies of troops and no recruiting is allowed on its territory. While the city is wealthy, the state is poor because of the people's aversion to all new taxes, even the least burdensome. The revenue of the state comes to less than five hundred thousand livres in French money, but the admirable economy with which this is administered makes it quite sufficient for all the needs of the city and even produces reserves for emergencies. There are four classes of inhabitants in ← Geneva → . the citizens who are the sons of bourgeois and were born in the city; they alone can become magistrates. The bourgeois who are the sons of bourgeois or of citizens but were born in a foreign country, or who are foreigners to whom the magistracy has granted the rights of a bourgeois, which it has the power to do; these can be members of the General Council and even of the Grand Conseil, called the "Council of the Two Hundred." The residents are foreigners who have the permission of the magistrate to reside in the city but do not exercise any function. Lastly the natives are the children of residents; they have some privileges which their fathers did not possess, but they are excluded from the government. The government is headed by four syndics who can hold this position for only one year and must wait at least four years before holding it again. They are aided by the Petit Conseil. composed of twenty counselors, a treasurer, and two secretaries of state, and by another body called Le Corps de la Justice. These two bodies deal with the daily business that demands immediate action, whether criminal or civil. The Grand Conseil is composed of two hundred and fifty citizens or bourgeois. It judges major civil suits, it grants pardons, coins money, elects the members of the Petit Conseil and decides what matters should be brought before the General Council. This General Council comprises all citizens and bourgeois, with the exception of those under twenty-five years of age, and of those who are bankrupt or have incurred censure of some sort. This assembly holds the legislative power; it has the right of decision over war and peace, the right to form alliances, levy taxes, and elect the principal magistrates. The election is conducted with orderly decorum in the cathedral, even though there are about 1,500 electors. This fact shows us that the government of ← Geneva → has all the advantages and none of the drawbacks of democracy: everything is under the direction of the syndics, everything is originally discussed in the Petit Conseil. which also has the ultimate executive responsibility. Thus it seems that the city of ← Geneva → has taken as its model the very wise law of the ancient Germanic government: De minoribus rebus principes consultant, de majoribus omnes; ita tamen, ut ea quorum penes plebem arbitrium est, apud principes praetractentur. [10] The civil law of ← Geneva → is almost entirely drawn from Roman law, with some modifications: for example, a father can leave no more than half his property to any heir he wishes to designate, the rest is equally divided between his children. This law on the one hand guarantees the independence of the children and on the other forestalls any injustice by the fathers. M. de Montesquieu is right to give the name of "beautiful law" to the law that excludes from responsible positions in the republic all citizens who do not pay their father's debts after his death, and, of course, also all those who do not pay their own debts. [11] The degrees of family relationship that prohibit marriage do not go beyond those laid down in Leviticus: thus first cousins are allowed to marry, but on the other hand no dispensation can be obtained in forbidden cases. Divorce is granted, upon declaration in a court of law, in cases of adultery or intentional desertion. Criminal justice is dispensed scrupulously rather than harshly. Torture, which has already been abolished in several states and should be abolished everywhere because it is useless cruelty, is forbidden in ← Geneva → . It is administered only to criminals who are already condemned to death, in order to discover their accomplices, if that is necessary. The accused has the right to ask for a transcript of the proceedings and to be assisted by his relatives and a lawyer who defends his case before the judges in open court. Criminal sentences are rendered by the syndics in the public square with great ceremony. Hereditary titles are unknown in ← Geneva → . The son of a first magistrate remains lost in the crowd if he does not rise above it by his merit. Neither nobility nor wealth carry with them rank, prerogatives, or easy access to public office. Corrupt practices are strictly forbidden. Offices carry so little remuneration that they do not tempt cupidity. Only noble souls are tempted because of the high esteem in which these offices are held. There are few lawsuits. Most of them are settled out of court by the efforts of mutual friends, by the lawyers themselves, and by the judges. Sumptuary laws prohibit the use of jewels and gold, limit funeral expenses, and oblige all citizens to go on foot on the city streets. Carriages are used only for trips to the countryside. In France these laws would be considered too strict and almost barbarous and inhuman, but they do not restrict the true comforts of life which can always be obtained at little expense. The laws only eliminate lavishness, which does not bring happiness and bankrupts us without being useful. There exists no city perhaps where there are more happy marriages. On this point there is a gap of two hundred years between ← Geneva → and our morals. Thanks to the regulations against luxury, no one is afraid to have many children. In ← Geneva → luxury is not, as in France, one of the chief obstacles to population increase. No theater is permitted in ← Geneva → . There is no objection to plays in themselves, but it is feared that troops of actors would spread the taste for adornment, dissipation, and loose morals among the youth. Would not, however, a series of laws, strictly applied, on the conduct of the actors counteract this undesirable effect? In this way ← Geneva → would possess both theater and good morals and would enjoy the advantages of both. Theatrical performances would educate the taste of the citizens and endow them with a delicacy of tact and a subtlety of feeling, which it is very difficult to acquire otherwise. Literature would profit while morals would not decline, and ← Geneva → would add to the wisdom of Sparta the civility of Athens. There is another consideration, worthy of a republic that is so wise and enlightened, which might induce it to allow a theater. One of the principal causes of the loose morals for which we reproach actors is undoubtedly the barbarous prejudice against the acting profession. These men who are so indispensable to the progress and the vitality of the arts have been forced to live in a state of degradation. They seek in pleasures compensations for the esteem their estate cannot bring them. An actor whose morals are good should be doubly respected, but he is given scarcely any credit for his morality. The tax farmer who is an affront to the penury of the nation from which he draws his wealth, the courtier who fawns and does not pay his debts, those are the types of men we honor most highly. It would be better if actors were not only tolerated in ← Geneva → . but if they were first restrained by wise regulations, then protected, and even granted respect as soon as they were worthy of it. In short, if they were treated exactly like other citizens, the city would soon enjoy the advantage of having a company of honorable actors, something that we believe to be so rare and yet is rare only by our own fault. I might add that such a company would soon be the best in Europe. Many people would hasten to ← Geneva → who have great inclination and talent for the theater but who at present fear they would be dishonored by acting. There they would cultivate a talent that is so pleasing and so unusual, not only without shame but even in an atmosphere of respect. While many Frenchmen now find a stay in ← Geneva → depressing because they are deprived of seeing plays, the city, which is already the abode of philosophy and liberty, would then also be the abode of respectable pleasure. Foreigners would no longer be surprised that in a city where regular performances of decent plays are forbidden, vulgar and stupid farces, as offensive to good taste as to good morals, may be presented. This is not all. Little by little the example of the Genevan actors, their steady conduct, and the esteem it would bring them would serve as a model to the actors of other nations and as a lesson to those who until now have treated them so inconsistently and even harshly. We would no longer see them being on the one hand pensioners of the government and on the other the objects of anathema. Our priests would lose the habit of excommunicating them and our bourgeois of viewing them with disdain. Then a small republic could claim the glory of having reformed Europe in this respect, and this is perhaps more important than one thinks. ← Geneva → has a university called the Académie where the young people are taught free of charge. The professors can become magistrates, and in fact several have held the office. This does much to stimulate the zeal and the fame of the Academy. A few years ago a school of design was founded as well. The lawyers, the notaries, and the doctors belong to associations to which one is admitted only after public examination, and all the craft guilds also have their regulations, their apprenticeships, and masterpieces. The public library contains a good selection of books. It contains twenty-six thousand volumes and quite a number of manuscripts. These books can be borrowed by all citizens. Thus everyone reads and becomes enlightened, and the Genevans are much better educated than any other people. There is no suggestion that this might be bad, as some people maintain it would be for our country. Perhaps the Genevans and our politicians are equally right. After England, ← Geneva → was the first to practice smallpox inoculation which is so difficult to introduce in France and which nevertheless will be introduced, [12] although a number of our doctors still fight it, as their predecessors fought the circulation of the blood, emetic, and so many other incontrovertible truths and useful practices. All the sciences and almost all the arts have been so well cultivated in ← Geneva → that one would be surprised to see the list of scholars and artists of all kinds produced by the city during the last two centuries. Sometimes it has even had the good fortune to have famous foreigners chose to live in ← Geneva → because of its pleasant location and the freedom enjoyed by its inhabitants. M. de Voltaire, who took up residence in ← Geneva → three years ago, is now accorded the same tokens of esteem and respect by these republicans which he formerly received from several monarchs. The most flourishing manufacture in ← Geneva → is watch-making. It employs more than five thousand persons, that is to say more than a fifth of the citizens. Nor are the other arts neglected, particularly agriculture: painstaking cultivation compensates for the lack of fertile land. All the houses are built of stone. This often prevents fires which are also promptly contained because of the good arrangements for extinguishing them. Genevan hospitals are not, as elsewhere, merely a retreat for the poor who are sick or crippled. While they offer shelter to the homeless poor, they provide above all a great many small pensions that are distributed to poor families to help them live at home and continue working. Every year the hospitals spend more than three times their revenues, so generous are charitable gifts of every kind. We must still speak of religion in ← Geneva → . This is the section of the article that is perhaps of greatest interest to philosophers. We are now going to take up this subject but we beg our readers to remember that we are only writing as historians, not as partisans. Our theological articles are intended to serve as antidote to the present article and, besides, to recount is not to approve. We refer our readers to the words Eucharist. Hell. Faith. Christianity. etc. to caution them beforehand against what we are going to say. [13] The ecclesiastical constitution of ← Geneva → is purely presbyterian. There are no bishops, not to speak of canons. Not that there is objection to the institution of episcopacy, but the Genevans do not grant it any divine right and are of the opinion that a small republic is better served by ministers who are not as rich and influential as the bishops. The ministers are either pastors, like our parish priests, or postulants, like those of our priests who do not have a living. The minister's income does not exceed 1,200 livres and there are no perquisites. The state provides the income since the church owns nothing. No one is accepted into the ministry before the age of twenty-four and only after examinations that are very strict in respect to knowledge and to morality. One would wish that most of our Catholic churches would follow this example. The clergy plays no role in funerals. These are a purely administrative matter and are performed without any pomp. The Genevans believe that to put on a display after death is ridiculous. The dead are buried in a large cemetery quite far from the city, a custom that should be followed everywhere. See Exhalation. [14] The clergy of ← Geneva → have exemplary morals. The ministers live in great concord. One does not see them, as in other countries, quarrel bitterly among themselves about unintelligible subjects, persecute each other, and accuse each other in unseemly fashion before the magistrates. Yet they are far from all thinking alike on the articles that elsewhere are considered the most essential to religion. Several no longer believe in the divinity of Jesus Christ, which Calvin, their leader, defended with such zeal that he had Servetus burned at the stake. [15] When anyone speaks to them about this execution, which mars the charity and moderation of their patriarch, they do not attempt to justify him. They admit that Calvin's action was very reprehensible, and they confine themselves (if it is a Catholic who speaks with them) to contrasting the execution of Servetus with that dreadful Saint Bartholomew's Day which every good Frenchman would wish to erase from our history with his own blood. They also compare it to the execution of John Hus which even the Catholics, they remind their interlocutor, no longer attempt to justify; it was an action that equally violated humanity and good faith and should cover the memory of the Emperor Sigismund [16] with opprobrium for all time. "It is no small sign of the progress of human reason," writes M. de Voltaire, "that it was possible to publish in ← Geneva → . with public approval, the statement (in the Essai sur l'histoire universelle by the same author) that Calvin had a cruel soul as well as an enlightened mind. The murder of Servetus today seems abominable." [17] We believe that the praise which this noble freedom of thought and of writing deserves should be addressed equally to the author, to his century, and to ← Geneva → . How many countries are there where philosophy has made just as much progress but where truth is still captive, where reason does not dare raise her voice to thunder against abuses she condemns in silence, where we find only too many pusillanimous writers, called "wise men," still respecting prejudices they could combat with complete propriety and safety! Hell, one of the principal tenets of our faith, is no longer given such importance by several ministers in ← Geneva → . According to them it would be an insult to the Divinity if we imagined that this Being full of goodness and justice were capable of punishing our offenses with eternal torments. They explain as best they can the passages in the Bible which are explicitly contrary to their opinion and assert that in the Holy Scriptures one must never take anything literally if it seems to go against humanity and reason. They believe that there is punishment in the afterlife, but that it is only temporary. Thus purgatory, once one of the principal causes of the separation of the Protestants from the Roman Catholic Church, is today the only punishment after death that many of the former will accept. Here is another item to add to the history of human contradictions. In short, many of the ministers of ← Geneva → have no other religion than a perfect Socinianism; [18] they reject everything called "mystery" and imagine that the first principle of a true religion is not to propose any belief that conflicts with reason. When they are pressed on the question of the "necessity" of revelation, a dogma that is so basic to Christianity, many substitute the term "utility" which seems more agreeable to them. If they are not orthodox in this, at least they are true to their principles. See Socinianism . A clergy holding these opinions must needs be tolerant and is tolerant enough to be viewed with disfavor by the ministers of the other reformed churches. One might add further, without any intention of approving the religion of ← Geneva → . that there are few countries where the theologians and the clergymen are more opposed to superstition. As a result, because intolerance and superstition serve only to increase the number of unbelievers, one hears less complaint in ← Geneva → than elsewhere about the spread of unbelief, and this should not surprise us. Here religion consists almost entirely in the adoration of a single God, at least among all classes other than the common people. Respect for Jesus Christ and for the Scriptures is perhaps all that distinguishes the Christianity of ← Geneva → from pure deism. The clergymen of ← Geneva → are not merely tolerant: they remain entirely within their province and are the first to set an example for the citizens by submitting to the laws. The Consistory, charged with watching over morals, inflicts only spiritual punishment. The great quarrel between the priesthood and the Empire, which in the age of ignorance imperiled the crown of many an emperor, and which—we know this only too well—causes troublesome disturbances in more enlightened times, is unknown in ← Geneva → where the clergy does nothing without the approval of the magistrates. Worship is very simple in ← Geneva → . The churches contain no images, no lights or ornaments. However, a portal in very good taste has just been added to the cathedral; little by little the interior of the churches will perhaps be embellished. Indeed, what objection could there be to having paintings and statues? If one wishes, the common people could be told not to worship them and to look on them only as monuments destined to recount in a striking and pleasing manner the principal events of religion. This would be to the advantage of the arts yet would bring no profit to superstition. The reader surely realizes that we are speaking here according to the principles of the ministers of ← Geneva → . and not those of the Catholic Church. The divine service includes both sermons and singing. The sermons are almost entirely concerned with morality and are all the better for that. The singing is in rather bad taste and the French verses that are sung are in even worse taste. It is to be hoped that ← Geneva → will become reformed on these two points. An organ has just been placed in the cathedral and perhaps God will now be praised in better language and in better music. We must admit, however, that the Supreme Being is honored in ← Geneva → with a seemliness and calm that is not noticeable in our churches. Perhaps we will not devote articles of such length to the greatest monarchies, but in the eyes of the philosopher the Republic of the Bees is no less interesting than the history of great empires. It may be that the model of a perfect political administration can be found only in small states. If religion does not allow us to believe that the Genevans have successfully worked for their happiness in the next world, reason forces us to believe that they are perhaps as happy as one can be in this world: O fortunatos nimium, sua si bona norint! [19] Notes 1. [ Correspondance littéraire. December 15, 1757 (Vol. III, p. 458 in edition by Maurice Tourneux; Paris, 1878).] 2. [ Voltaire's Correspondence. Ed. Th. Besterman, Vol. XXXII, p. 257 (December 29, 1757).] 3. [See Introduction, p. xiii.] 4. [Arthur M. Wilson's Diderot, the Testing Years (New York: Oxford University Press, 1957), pp. 280–290, gives a full account of this episode in the history of the Encyclopédie .] 5. [French city on the Rhone, capital of a province of Gaul in Roman times.] 6. [See footnote 2, p. 34.] 7. [Seventeenth-century Jansenist writers who lived in retreat at the convent of Port-Royal. Pascal was the most famous member of this group.] 8. [These were disputes between the patrician government and the more democratic bourgeois party.] 9. [I.e. the duke of Savoy. The house of Savoy had acquired Sardinia in 1718.] 10. ["On little matters the chiefs consult, on larger questions the community; only with this limitation, that even those subjects, the decision about which rests with the people, are first handled by the chiefs" (Tacitus, Germania 11). D'Alembert omitted quoque between ut and quorum of the original.] 11. [Montesquieu, L'Esprit des lois. Bk. XX, chap. 16.] 12. [Most French doctors still opposed inoculation at this time. The Encyclopédie contains a lengthy article on the subject ("Inoculation") by the famous Genevan doctor Théodore Tronchin who had successfully inoculated the children of the duke of Orléans in 1756. Tronchin also became involved in the controversy occasioned by " ← Geneva → " since he acted as secretary to the committee of nine and wrote the letter to d'Alembert asking him to retract his allegations on the religious opinions of the Genevan clergy. Nonetheless, he always remained a good friend of both Voltaire and Diderot.] 13. [Three of the articles (none of which appear in these selections) to which d'Alembert refers the reader are perfectly orthodox, but "Hell," by the Abbé Mallet, is in great part a paraphrase from the seventeenth-century English Archbishop Tillotson, a precursor of the English deists, and dwells at length on Tillotson's argument that belief in hell is incompatible with belief in a just and merciful God.] 14. [This article is also by d'Alembert. In it he refers to the dangerous vapors produced by the presence of cemeteries within the confines of the city. Voltaire repeatedly advocated the removal of cemeteries from the city. Also noteworthy is the article "Air," on the dangers to health from the impure air in the cities. Neither of these articles appear in these selections.] 15. [Servetus, a Spanish theologian, was burned at the stake in 1553 for preaching against the doctrine of the Trinity and against child baptism.] 16. [Sigismund (1368–1437) was Holy Roman Emperor and King of Hungary and Bohemia. He granted Hus a safe-conduct to the Council of Constance but did not act when the Council imprisoned Hus and condemned him to be burned at the stake.] 17. [This is quoted from a letter by Voltaire to Nicholas Thieriot which was printed in the Mercure de France in May 1757 (pp. 35–38). The Essai sur l'histoire universalle is better known today as Essai sur les Moeurs . Voltaire was quite upset that d'Alembert gave such wide publicity to opinions he had expressed in a letter. Mme Denis, Voltaire's niece, wrote in a letter to Tronchin on January 5, 1758: "My uncle has been very worried since he read the article on ← Geneva → . because he thinks that d'Alembert has quoted him quite inopportunely. But he has told me: `I will not write a word about it unless our friend Tronchin tells me to do so.' Be assured that you will never perform any miracle for humanity that will be as remarkable as to cure my uncle of this article, something none of his friends have been able to accomplish so far." Voltaire's Correspondence (Besterman ed.), XXXIII, 17.] 18. [A unitarian doctrine based on the writings of the Italian theologian Fausto Paolo Sozzini (1539–1604).] 19. ["Oh how very happy they are if they know their blessing!" (Virgil. Georgics II. 458).] highlight hits: on | apagado It has been the goal of roulette players for over 200 years to find a foolproof way to beat the game. Amazingly, the secret was hidden in the back of a book on roulette published 84 years ago! The Fisher Roulette Strategy contains a previously undiscovered secret method that turns the tables on the roulette game. Conclusive tests prove that you never need to lose at roulette again when you use this method. I am going to reveal a rock solid way you can use to turn $40 into an $8,000 bankroll and then consistently make $2,240 an hour playing roulette. What’s more, in the next few pages I am going to give you proof that you, too, can use the Fisher Roulette Strategy to “set yourself up for life!” From: Martin J Silverthorne 12:41 PM I couldn’t believe my eyes when I reviewed our first series of real world tests of an 88 year-old roulette system. This is a strategy that has never before been released to the public. As far as I can tell, it was never used after 1920 the date of the remarkable document that fell into my hands. In this day of high speed computer analyses it is easy to assume that roulette players playing the game almost 90 years ago used methods that are easily eclipsed by modern computer generated algorithms. Yet in this case, if you made this assumption you would be dead wrong. People often forget that some of mankind’s greatest accomplishments were the results of one man, working alone, without the benefit of computers, calculators, research grants, highly paid assistants or any of the other aspects of modern research that are considered essential by today’s standards. Albert Einstein developed his theory of relativity working by himself. Thomas Edison was essentially a one-person shop when he developed the incandescent light bulb, as well as the phonograph, motion pictures and a whole slew of devices we take for granted. Galileo opposed the entire educated world and the almighty church when he proposed the then heretical idea that the earth revolves around the sun. Even the modern personal computer was born of just a few individuals like Steven Jobs, Steve Wozniak, Bill Gates, Paul Allen and John V. Blackenbaker, working mostly outside of the establishment. In fact, most of the creations that are of the greatest benefit to all of us, from the flush toilet, manufactured in the 1880s by Thomas Crapper's plumbing company, to the printing press, created by the German goldsmith Johannes Gutenberg, were the brain children of loners who had great moments of inspiration and then turned these visions into practical concepts. So, it shouldn’t be a surprise that another individual, Samuel Fisher, developed an extraordinary new way of winning at roulette. We have just finished testing this strategy and I can say, without any equivocation, that this roulette strategy is one of the most amazing I have ever seen. Our Tests of this Strategy Prove That When You Use the Fisher Roulette Strategy to Play Roulette, You Will Win Without Fail. I know that this sounds almost impossible to believe, but this is truly a system that you can use to play roulette as long as you like without fear of losing. We have used this system against every version of roulette offered today and found - It beats the American version of the game which, using the double-zero wheel, is the hardest version to beat. It beats the European version of roulette in all forms offered. It beats the single-zero version of roulette found in Atlantic City. It beats online roulette hands down. There is no question that when you use this strategy you will be able to – Log on to any of hundreds of online roulette games and within fifteen minutes bring in a profit of $112! Win more consistently than you can with any other gambling strategy. In fact, I will show you how you can use this strategy and never again lose a session of roulette! Set up your own roulette business using the Fisher Roulette Strategy to power your profits. Set up profit goals and then realistically meet them every week, without fail! Let Me Tell You A Little More About the Fisher Roulette Strategy – The Fisher Roulette Strategy is designed for even-money bets at roulette. By even-money bets, I mean red or black, odd or even and high or low. With the exception of the zeros (single zero on European wheels, single and double-zeros on American wheels), the even-money bets cover half the numbers. The probability of their occurrence is almost 50%, about like flipping a coin. In the long run you can expect to win and lose roughly the same amounts of all even-money bets. There have been numerous systems designed for even-money bets, such as the double up Martingale system, d’Alembert, Ascot, the Labouchere or cancellation system, Oscar’s Grind and so on. All of these systems work for a while and then wipe out all of your profits, plus a good chunk of your bankroll when they fail. If there were no table limits, even the classic Martingale system would beat roulette. You start by placing a one-unit bet on the table on an even-money bet. If you lose, you double your bet. Let’s say you like to bet on the color Black. Assume you continue to bet on Black and Red comes up eight times in a row. Your ninth bet would be for $511 (calculated as 1 + 2 + 4 + 8 + 16 +32 +64 +128 +256 = 511). You would be placing $511 on the table to win a $1 profit. If this wager lost also, you would be out $511. Most casinos would not let you go even this far. A casino accepting $1 minimum roulette bets would probably have a maximum bet of $250, limiting a Martingale to no more than seven levels. With a $250 limit, you would not be able to make a larger bet than $128 without running into the table limit. The attraction of the Martingale system is that you will win most of your bets. Unfortunately, setting maximum bets ultimately defeats this system. If a casino did not place a maximum on the size of the bets they accepted, then using the Martingale system would be a sure way to beat the casinos. Samuel Fisher was very aware of betting limits when he designed his roulette strategy. Part of the beauty of it is that it can survive losing runs of eight, nine or even ten consecutive losses and still win, while staying well under the house betting limits. Fisher’s betting strategy does not use a fixed progression for betting, like a Martingale. In fact this system has had no losing runs! Let me repeat this so that you realize the full impact of this statement – When You Use The Fisher Roulette Strategy, You Will Never Have a Losing Session! We have tested and retested this strategy and have over 10,000 roulette spins under our belts using this strategy. I want to emphasize that these are actual roulette decisions played in a variety of different casinos and not just some computer simulation. In using this strategy, we have had no losing runs! With no losing runs, we have never had a losing session! No matter what happens during a roulette game, this system always recovers and ends each run with a win. It sounds hard to believe and at first I had trouble believing it myself. But it is absolutely true! Why does the Fisher Strategy work so well? Every roulette wager consists of two parts: Determining where to place the bet and Setting the size of the bet. Most of the old time systems only deal with the size of each bet and pretty much assume that where you bet doesn’t matter. But they are wrong. Where you place each bet is just as critical as the amount you bet. The Fisher Strategy Automatically Determines Where You Place Each Bet Samuel Fisher knew that bet placement is very important if you intend to win consistently at roulette. Many players like to bet on a favorite color and then stick with that color. While such a system can be fairly effective at times, it can easily be devastated against a long streak of wins on the opposite color. The Fisher Strategy advocates a simple way of following the flow of roulette decisions that is very effective. When you use it, you will be able to hold your own against all kinds of roulette patterns and win whether the game is choppy or streaky. The Real Genius of the Fisher Strategy Lies in Its Amazing Betting Strategy. Unlike a Martingale series where it will ultimately lose either because of running into the house betting limit or when the player runs out of money, Fisher does not used a fixed betting progression. Samuel Fisher discovered a unique formula for betting that can survive anything you will ever encounter playing roulette. What ultimately defeats the Martingale strategy as well as most of the old time roulette strategies, is a consecutive string of losses. No Martingale can survive 7, 8 or 9 consecutive losing bets. With a Martingale betting system, you will usually reach the house betting limit by the 7 th or 8 th losing bet. In contrast to a Martingale system, the Fisher Betting Strategy can survive any number of consecutive losing bets. You could lose 10, 11, 12 or even 15 consecutive bets and still win using Fisher’s incredibly clever betting strategy. Let’s say you lose 9 times in a row, which would wipe out nearly any other system. With Fisher, you will have a small loss at this point. Now, all you have to do is have 4 wins to overcome the effect of these losses. Please notice I am not saying 4 consecutive wins. That would be a steep requirement. What I am saying is that 4 winning bets, whenever they occur, will more than offset 9 losing ones. What if you lose 12 bets? You will need only 5 wins at any time to overcome this loss. Even if a coup takes 20 bets to complete, you will complete the coup with a net win With the Fisher Betting Strategy, the Completion of Each Coup Results in a Win! A winning coup can be completed in as little as one bet or may take as long as 25 bets. However, one thing you can be certain of – Each time you win a coup you will win an amount equal to your profit goal. Let’s say you are playing with a $3 profit goal for each coup. Then every time the system completes a run, you will win an additional $3. How much you win when you win a coup depends on your profit goal and your betting level. You can play for $1, $3, $10, $25 or even $50 coup wins. The one thing that is constant is that when you use the Fisher Betting Strategy, you will win every run. Here’s An Example of What You Can Expect When You Are Playing for $30 Coup Wins Below is a table showing winnings coups in a series of 500 roulette decisions where the profit goal for each winning coup is $30. The first column shows the bet number, so that “2” represents the second bet. The second column keeps track of the number of coups won. So, “3” represents the third coup. The last column tracks our winnings. You can follow the total winnings in this series of bets by reading down this column. Fisher Roulette System Played for 500 Roulette Decisions This table shows coup wins where you set $30 as your Profit Target for each winning coup . Each time you win a coup, you win another $30. In this series of 500 plays, we won 128 coups for a total of $3,840. This is fairly typical of what you can expect when you use the Fisher Roulette Strategy. How Fast You Win Depends Strictly on the Speed of the Game In a brick and mortar casino, averaging 60 spins an hour, it would take you 8 1/3 hours to complete 500 spins. Your hourly win rate would be $461 an hour. In an online casino, with its much faster rate of play, you could easily play at the rate of 300 spins per hour. Here, your win rate would be an astounding $2,305 an hour! Notice that you will always win a coup using this system. Let’s take a look at an extreme example encountered in these 500 bets. On bets 42 to 59 it took 18 wagers to win a coup. Yet, we still won the coup . This is a concrete example demonstrating exactly what you will experience when you harness the awesome power of the full Fisher Roulette Strategy. Just so we are clear about this, let me say it again – We have not yet had a single losing coup using this strategy. However you manage your play, you will not have losing sessions with this strategy. The Fisher Roulette Strategy Turns “Hit and Run Tactics” on Their Heads As you know, I have developed or sponsored a number of very successful gambling strategies over the years. My associates and I regularly use these strategies to win at craps, blackjack, roulette, baccarat, slot machines and video poker. We are also very successful at trading stocks. The one thing every strategy has is common is that we don’t play the game continuously. Simply stated, we play for a while, grab a win and then take a break. Another way of describing this style of play is to call it a “Hit and Run” approach to gambling. I have always felt that being able to play for short intervals, grab a win and then depart a winner was a critical aspect of beating the house at gambling. Using a hit and run approach has been as much a part of the successful gambling strategies I have used as is money management and using planned betting procedures. That is, until I discovered Samuel Fisher’s remarkable strategy. When you play roulette using the Fisher Roulette Strategy, there is no longer a need to use the hit and run approach . With the Fisher Betting Strategy always resulting in a winning coup, there is no reason to play for a target win and then pull off. You can play for as long as you like and take a break after any winning coup. If you want to play for five minutes and pull in a win, this is the strategy for you. If you want a strategy that you can use for an hour at a time and then take a break, the Fisher Roulette Strategy will suit your needs perfectly. If you want an easy way to beat the online roulette games, this is the strategy you need. Let Me Tell You How I Discovered the Fisher Roulette Strategy I like to buy gambling books – especially old ones. Over the years I have developed the habit of buying old gambling books from a couple of local bookstores when I am in Las Vegas. While I have found some really interesting systems, I had never d iscovered a truly winning one until I stumbled across the Fisher Roulette Strategy. Several years ago, I bought some gambling books while I was in Las Vegas and I had never gotten around to reading them. They ended up in a box in my garage, still unread. Recently my wife, Diane, decided that our garage needed a thorough cleaning, especially an area known as Martin’s Book Stash. I am hopelessly addicted to buying books and the book shelves in my home library as well as the many other bookcases scattered throughout the house have long since been filled. Periodically to make room for my latest acquisitions, I will box up books that I don’t think I will need to refer to and move them out to my corner of the garage. Over the years, my book stash has expanded until it fills a whole garage bay. Now I will give myself some credit. Each box is neatly labeled with an ID tag. I keep a notebook that details every box so that, at least in theory, I could find any book, given enough time and a willingness to move boxes around. My books were the project that Diane decided needed attention this past summer. She hired a local gardener and turned him into her personal garage/house/yard organizer and was doing quite well in moving, fixing and changing to fit her needs. Quite frankly, I was delighted that she had found a way to organize, reorganize and rearrange that didn’t involve me. However, we came to an impasse with my book stash. One day Diane marched into my office and stood there watching me with her foot bouncing as she looked around my office. I tried to ignore her and gazed even more intently at my computer screen. But, as her foot continued to move to its own beat I realized that she had something she needed to say, do or plan that would involve me. I told her that I just needed to finish an email to one of my associates and that it would take a few minutes. She disappeared and then reappeared in my office with a cup of coffee. She took a seat and the foot resumed its motion. I zipped off my email, came around my desk, gave her a soldierly kiss and asked how her day was going. “It’s going great. Jones has helped me clean out the garage. It looks great except for your corner.” “You mean my books. Well they do take up some room. But they are very neatly boxed and only occupy the last bay.” I thought I had resolved her problem and was prepared to change the subject, but she was not satisfied with this approach. “Martin, they need to go somewhere else. I need that space for another car.” I had no idea what she was talking about. We already have four cars. Why would we need another one. Of course Diane explained. “I found a great deal on a Smart car ForTwo. You know my friend, Mary. Bien. “ As Diane explained why we had such a great deal on this car, my mind wandered. I could tell that this was one of those situations that was not going to have a happy ending for me. I finally interrupted. “Maybe I can take a look at my books. It’s probably time to get rid of some of them anyway.” The next day I went down and starting going through boxes. In the fourth box I found a book I never had looked at with the likely title of The Sealed Book of Roulette and Trente-et-Quarante by Billiken. As I picked up the book, a receipt from the Gamblers Book Store in Las Vegas fell out. That explained where it had come from Apparently this was a book I had bought in Las Vegas some years ago that had gotten boxed up before I had even looked at it. I read the description on the title page: The Sealed Book of Roulette and Trente-et-Quarante. Being a Guide to the Tables at Monte Carlo, together with simple descriptions of several unique systems . The copyright date was 1924 and the book was made and printed in Great Britain by Fleetway Press, Ltd. in London. The book itself was intriguing, and while I was examining it several yellowed folded sheets fell out of the back of the book. I picked them up and started to read. The sheets contained tightly written script in a very neat handwriting. The first page contained a description of a roulette strategy, followed by a formula and several pages of the results of play. I first scanned the pages of play. Each line on the page summarized the results of a day of play at Monte Carlo. As I read through the record of play, the most remarkable thing was that there were no losing days. Here is a sample of results of daily play written in small neat rows and columns: Each line showed the date played and the amount won in French francs. This diary of daily wins continued throughout 1919 and into the first part of 1920. Total winnings shown in this journal were ₣241,245, a tidy sum back then. This was very intriguing to say the least. The first page was indentifed as the “Journal de Samuel Fisher de le J eux de Roulette.” The journal was written in French. With the combination of Diane’s remarkable memory of the French she took in high school and the Google translator, I was able to determine Samuel Fisher’s roulette system. To say that it is a remarkable system would be an understatement. It is a system that never loses. What’s more, it is a system that can be played nonstop without losing. This is what sets it apart from other systems. While the best time to take a break from play is after completing a coup, there is no other reason to stop play other than fatigue. Once I understood the strategy, it seemed almost too good to be true. Here was an unknown roulette system developer who had accomplished what all the great nineteenth and early twentieth century roulette system players had failed to do. He had created the roulette strategy that never loses. Because of Its Extraordinary Performance, You Don’t Have to Bet Big to Win a Lot! Have you got $75 that you can spare? If you do, you have enough to get started with 50ў roulette bets. Don’t worry if the minimum bet in your favorite land-based casino is $5 or $10. You will find plenty of online casinos accepting 50ў roulette bets. In fact, if you play in one of the casinos I recommend that pay 100% sign-up bonuses, you can get started for less than $40. As a 50ў player, you can make about $40 an hour playing online. Now this isn’t too bad. Play five hours a day and you will make $200. But, you are not likely to be satisfied at this level when you can make so much more just by betting a little higher. With online play, here’s what you can expect to make per hour as you increase the size of your wagers . Now, you might be wondering how you can get up to the $896, $1344 and especially the $2240 an hour winning level. I have got you covered! The Fisher Roulette Strategy Course Contains a Complete Plan Showing You How to Grow Your Bankroll Out of Your Winnings! I remember reading a book about blackjack card counting several years ago. The author talked about how successful card counters could make $50,000 to $75,000 a year. Okay so far, where do I sign up? Then came the zinger. To be successful as a card counter, a bankroll of at least $50,000 to $100,000 was recommended. The author didn’t have any suggestions about how to put together the hundred grand needed to be a successful card counter. As a practical matter, unless you already had a bundle of money you could risk, there was no reasonable way to ever become a well paid card counter. I am not about to leave you hanging with the Fisher Roulette Strategy. First, you won’t need anywhere like $100,000 to reach the big time with this strategy. To reach the $2,000 an hour plus winning category, you will need $8,000. Don’t go into shock over this amount. Like I just stated, I have got you covered. What you are going to do is simply follow the steps I will reveal in the manual and literally grow your own bankroll. To make this as easy as possible, I have developed a step-by-step plan that you can follow. It’s like walking up a set of steps, where you reach the top one step at a time. You can start out making 50ў or $1 bets with a bankroll of $40. This is your first step. As your winnings grow, your bankroll will grow also. Now, each time you increase the size of your bankroll a defined amount, you will be able to increase the size of your bets and give yourself a huge raise. Take the next step up and move from 50ў wagers to making $1 bets Now, you can sit back and enjoy your profits. Almost before you realize it, you will have won enough to move up to making $2 bets. After that comes the $3 betting level. At this point it will have taken you less than eight hours play to move from 50ў to $3 bets. You could stop here if you like. After all, making $269 an hour is pretty darned good. But, let’s assume that you want to move right on up to the big time. Your next step will be to the $5 betting level, where you can bring in the tidy sum of $448 an hour in net winnings! You can stay at this level for a while if you like. Making $448 an hour is good in anyone’s book. But, you have decided to go to the top, so you continue up the betting ladder. Your next level is $10 betting. You are now making $896 an hour. This may feel just right to you. If you play 3 Ѕ hours a day, you will bring in $3,000 a day in profits. You could “work” just three days a week and make $468,000 a year! But, you have decided not to stop. Why not increase your betting to the next level? You stick with the plan and move to the $15 betting level. You are now making $1,344 an hour. But you decide to move on to the final level in this plan. Your bankroll hits the $8,000 level. You now have enough to make $25 bets. At this level you will be bringing in $2,240 an hour! You can do your own figuring here (go ahead, its fun!). If you put in ten hours a week as a $25 base bettor, you will make over $22,000 a week. Now, you might be thinking there must be some hidden catch to this. Maybe it will take months of hard work to reach this level, or your bankroll will go up and down because of fluctuations in your winnings. It’s much easier than that. Starting with $1 bets, you will reach the $25 betting level in about 20 hours of play. To do this, you will have to “reinvest” your profits in building your bankroll. However, because the Fisher Roulette Strategy just continues to win, without losses, you won’t face the risk of losing back some of your bankroll. If you face some really tough games, it might take you 22 hours to go from $1 to $25 betting. Or, you may have an even easier time and reach your goal in just 18 hours. However, the critical thing to know here is – If you just follow the step-by-step plan that comes with the Fisher Roulette Strategy course, you can safely and quickly move up from making $1 bets to $25 bets in about 20 hours! If you play in higher limit land-based roulette games, you will find many $100 minimum roulette tables. In a fast land-based game you can easily make over $2,500 an hour making $100 bets! Is This the Universal Gambling Strategy We’ve All Been Waiting For? Axel D. used the Fisher Roulette Strategy with great success playing mini-baccarat. This raises the question – Is the Fisher Roulette Strategy the ultimate strategy for any game offering even-money wagers? All of the testing so far indicates that the answer is a resounding “Yes!” With its unique betting formula as well as bet selection techniques, this strategy is far more than the roulette strategy that never loses. There is no reason that you shouldn’t get the same results against baccarat, mini-baccarat, craps and even blackjack . I am just starting our testing of these games. However, if you want to use this strategy to beat any of the other games I am absolutely certain of the results you will get – You will be able to play baccarat, mini-baccarat, craps or even blackjack without any fear of ever again losing! This May Be Your Best Chance to Quit Working So Hard and Start Enjoying Life More! I tried early retirement a few years ago and it wasn’t for me. However, even though I am not retired, I long ago gave up the routine of working for someone else. Chances are you don’t enjoy what many call “the daily rat race” more than anyone else. Even if you have the perfect job and look forward to every day of work, wouldn’t it be nice to know that you didn’t have to do this? To me, there is no greater sense of freedom than knowing that I do what I do because I want to do it, not because I have traded my freedom for a set of obligations that force me to plod off to work every day. I have some great news for you – Now is the perfect time to get out of the rut! The Fisher Roulette Strategy can provide the perfect basis for a whole new direction in your life. Let’s say that you need $5,000 a month just to live. I know that sounds like a lot, but you would be surprised how many middle class people need $5,000, $7,000 or even $9,000 every month just to get by. Let’s assume that your survival number is $5,000 a month. If you work every day, you can just make it. But there is no wiggle room. And, working just to pay all of the bills is not your idea of the good life. Here’s How You Change Your Life Forever. Try the Fisher Roulette Strategy. You can try it on a No Risk Trial Basis and prove to yourself that it works without risking a cent. I can’t think of any other option that offers so much for so little time and money risked. Once you experience the sheer thrill of playing without losses I know that you will be sold on this strategy just like I am. If you have the money, you can immediately start playing at the $2,000 an hour plus level. But, as we just saw, you don’t have to risk much to get going. You can start out with just $40, and in a very short time, be at the $2,000 an hour plus winning level! Even if you don’t reach this level, you can easily become a $10 bettor, bringing in almost $900 an hour. In either case, I am sure you can see the implications of this stunning new income producer. If your monthly expense level is $5,000, you can cover it in less than three hours play . If you are just getting by with $10,000 a month in expenses (don’t laugh, there are plenty of people in this boat), put in about five hours a month of roulette play and you will cover it. Here’s What You Can Expect When You Use the Fisher Roulette Strategy – The first thing you can do is relax when you play. There is no guesswork involved to win with this strategy. Old Samuel Fisher put together a very sound system and all we have to do is follow in his footsteps. To make this strategy super easy to use, you will get the Fisher Roulette Tracker with the Fisher Roulette Strategy course. To win and keep winning all you have to do is follow the Tracker. You will know exactly where to bet and the exact amount to bet on every roulette decision. Here’s what you’ll get when you download this amazing course. You’ll get the complete theory behind this strategy and learn why it is so powerful. I use lots of examples so that you can quickly gain a complete mastery of the strategy. You will have all of the tools available to beat every version of roulette . What’s more, this isn’t one of those systems that require that you stand around waiting for the right time to start playing. You can sit down and start playing immediately, making bets on every spin of the wheel. You can play and win at roulette no matter where you decide to play . Since this strategy is not based on any characteristics of a roulette wheel, it works equally well on physical as well as computer generated versions of roulette. You won’t need much money to succeed. You can start with as little as $40 and quickly build your own bankroll using your winnings. A complete step-by-step plan is included with the course showing you exactly how to do this quickly and easily! Using this strategy is a snap . You will get the Fisher Roulette Tracker that will automatically keep track of your bets. One Player’s Experience Using this Strategy I got acquainted with Axel D, who lives in Madison, Wisconsin, a couple of years ago. He is a real roulette aficionado having collected over 50 different roulette systems. Axel is now retired and I asked him to try out the Fisher Roulette Strategy and let me know what he thought. Here is what Axel experienced: “First I want to say ‘thanks’ for letting me work with you on this strategy. I really enjoyed reading the original notes written by Samuel Fisher. I could sense a kinship with him since we both love the game of roulette. “I wasn’t sure exactly what you wanted me to do when you asked me to take a look at this system and let you know what I thought. I first reviewed all of your examples and your explanation of how the strategy works. “I have to say that I am really amazed at the underlying formula. What it accomplishes is nothing less than turning roulette from a game heavily in favor of the house to a very player favorable game. “It does this because of its extremely clever betting scheme which minimizes the impact of losing streaks, yet allows for very easy wins with just a few winning bets. “I tested this strategy extensively and the longest number of bets I had between winning coups was 19. I know you mentioned surviving 25 bets between winning coups, but I never experienced any series that long. “After playing this strategy for over 8,000 roulette decisions, I am as confident as you are that it will overcome even the longest periods of adversity and still win. “I never lost a single run in all of my play. That is the most remarkable aspect of this strategy. “The second aspect, which is equally remarkable, is that you can play this strategy continuously. This is new to me. Every other winning roulette strategy I have ever used works for short-term wins, but will break down and have losses if it is played too long. “With this Fisher Strategy, you can play as long as you like. The only stipulation about when to quit is that your profits will be highest if you quit right after a winning coup. Eso es. “I found that I could use this strategy without any fear of a loss at all. I tried it in local casinos, in several online casinos and on one trip to Atlantic City. The results were the same everywhere – no losses, just more winnings. “Once I hit the $25 betting level my average winnings were pretty close to yours. “Making $25 bets, I averaged making $2347 an hour online and $543 an hour in land-based casinos. “In my opinion the Fisher Roulette Strategy is the best roulette strategy for even-money bets ever created. As an aside, I played mini-baccarat with it for a day in Atlantic City and had the same experience as when I played roulette – all wins and no losses.” How Much Will You Pay to Gain a $2,000 an Hour System That Has Never Lost? I don’t know how much Samuel Fisher lost before he finally discovered the secret formula that underlies his strategy. If he was like many roulette players, he probably lost a small fortune before he developed this powerful winner. How much is a proven $2,000 an hour system worth to you? If I were talking about a day trading system with this kind of proven performance, it would be priced very high. You would probably have to pay at least $25,000 to have access to it and even then you wouldn’t get all of the information about how it really worked. To buy a roulette strategy with these kinds of results would set you back between $5,000 and $10,000. If it was priced like a downloadable stock trading system it would probably cost at least $500 a month to access it. And, you would have to attend a $2,500 seminar in order to understand how to use it! In short, any proven strategy that really performs like the Fisher Roulette Strategy is going to be priced fairly high. And, if you think about it, it would be well worth it. Remember, we are talking about a proven strategy that you can use to win $2,000 a hour without risk of losing. If I charged you $2,000 for it, it would only take you an hour of play to cover the cost of the strategy. However, I am not going to charge you much for the “$2,000 a Hour Strategy.” We have decided to offer the complete Fisher Roulette Strategy for $499.97. This is thousands less than what we could charge. But, as a client of mine, I can offer you an even better deal – SPECIAL PREPUBLICATION OFFER FOR CLIENTS I am offering you, as one of my loyal clients, a special prepublication offer as my thanks to you. You can get the amazing Fisher Roulette Strategy course for the reduced price of just $299.97. ¡Espere! I can do even better than that – If you order before. I will slash the special price to a rock-bottom $99.97 . Here’s What You'll Get With the Fisher Roulette Strategy Course – When you decide to try out the Fisher Roulette Strategy course, you are really getting a complete business ready to set up and start profiting from. The Fisher Roulette Strategy Manual. This manual has everything you need to know to make a fortune off of this strategy. It is set up for beginners so that even if you don’t know the difference between roulette and bowling, you will quickly be able to master the system. A Quick Start Guide . If you are an experienced roulette player you can skip all of the basics and get right into the system. This guide will help you learn the “guts” of the system very quickly. There is no reason that you can’t be profiting from this strategy 45 minutes after you download it! The Step-by-Step Profit Multiplier . This is a complete plan detailing the exact steps you will take to turn $40 into $8,000. Reaching this level of bankroll is critical because once you do you can make $25 base bets and steadily win $2,000 an hour! The Fisher Roulette Tracker. Each course comes with the Fisher Roulette Tracker. By using this tracker you can use this strategy very easily and really make your roulette play almost automatic. But there’s even more. If you order by. you’ll get these indispensable bonuses - Bonus #1 - The Fisher Roulette Strategy Best Online Casinos (a $60 value). My clients and I shared information about using the Fisher Roulette Strategy online and came up with this insider information about the best online roulette casinos where we know you can play and win. This is our exclusive list of handpicked casinos that are – Easy to work with. Are available to US players. Offer the best versions of roulette. Have reputable software standing behind them. Are easy to contact and are available 24/7. 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For each casino listed you’ll get complete information, such as its name, address, general telephone number, reservation number, toll free numbers, the number of rooms, room prices and the size of the casino. And, we really cover the US in this up-to-date directory. Our select picks include casinos in – · Downtown Las Vegas Bienvenido SportsBettingWorm.com is your first and only stop if you are looking for information that will reveal you how to make extra money online with sports betting. We will explain you what is sports arbitrage betting and spread betting . give you guide and advice for placing surebets and also explain you why betting systems do not work. Even if you do not have any interest in sports or betting you will find information of this website very useful. There are two ways how to make money with sports betting: with or without taking risk. Sports arbitrage is investment method for making money without taking unnecessary risk, while success in spread betting requires knowledge, research and a bit of luck. Sports arbitrage betting A technique that uses the differences in odds at two or more bookmakers to make guaranteed profit is called sports arbitrage betting or arbitrage trading. If you back all possible outcomes of a sports event at different bookmakers with different odds, it is possible to make risk free profit. Arbitrage bets are sometimes called surebets . scalps or just arbs . Read more about arbitrage betting . Sports Arbitrage Example Baseball Match: Cincinnati Reds vs Milwaukee Brewers Total Stake: $1000 Spread betting Spread betting is wagering on a score difference between opponents in sports event. Although it carries a level of risk spread betting is is very popular because you need to win around 55% of bets to break even (percentage depends on bookmaker's margin or return rate). Everything above that percentage is your profit. To become successful in spread betting you need to have a level of knowledge about sports you are betting and do some research. Read more about spread betting . Besides information, advice and guide for sports arbitrage and spread betting, we bring you reviews of online bookmakers to help you choose the best sportsbook, general betting advice that will be extremely useful to people who just start betting online, betting guide with all wagering terms and explanation why betting systems do not work and won't make you a millionaire. Online bookmakers Finding online sportsbook that will satisfy all your requirements can be quite difficult since there is such a broad selection. Therefore we have chosen only the best online bookmakers, reviewed and rated them according to our strict criteria. In our bookmaker reviews you will find all important information about bookie from sports coverage, deposit and withdrawal methods and fees, minimum deposit, accepted currencies, minimum and maximum bet, type of customer support to bookmaker bonuses and quality of odds (margin). Find the best online bookmakers . Betting advice Betting advice on our website helps betting beginners to avoid common mistakes. We will explain you how to get the best odds and advantage over bookmakers for a particular match. If you want to be successful bettor, you should read our betting advice. Read betting advice . Betting guide Betting guide brings you explanation of sports betting terms that you might not be familiar with. In this section you will also find a sub page that explains different types of bets and how to read betting lines. Betting guide also has a sub page that explains decimal (European), fractional (UK) and moneyline (American) betting odds. Read sports betting guide . Betting systems Betting systems are sure way to loose your money. We will explain Martingale system, D'Alembert system, 1-3-2-6 and Paroli system and show you why they, as well as a million other betting systems offered on the Internet, do not work. Read more about betting systems . Matthew Todorovski Forex trading involves a high degree of risk (including the loss of your entire investment): No invierta dinero que no puede permitirse perder. Do not trade unless you understand the risks. Past performance is no guarantee of future performance. Results may vary depending on broker, VPS provider and MT4 settings. My broker PAYS ME to trade! There are two websites I recommend for the highest commission rebates (if you can't find your broker on one website, try the other): Forex is the fastest way to become rich. Forex is also the fastest way to become broke. Loss of 10% requires a gain of 11.11% to recover Loss of 20% requires a gain of 25% to recover Loss of 30% requires a gain of 42.86% to recover Loss of 40% requires a gain of 66.67% to recover Loss of 50% requires a gain of 100% to recover. The odds are stacked against everyone. It is harder to gain than to lose (before considering broker commissions and VPS costs). Despite all electronic trade systems, market inefficiency has even increased over the last decade, making automated trading more profitable than ever. Returns of 100% per year, far above the profit range of any serious long-term investment, can be relatively easily achieved trough automated trading, even with a cheap PC and slow Internet connection. The most important methods for exploiting inefficiencies are listed below: Tendencia. All strategies try to anticipate the trend, but the current trend of a price curve itself can be used to predict future prices. Traders tend to follow the mass: when some buy, others start buying too. This causes a sequence of price movements in the same direction that can be detected and exploited. Trend following is one of the most often used strategies, but also one of the most difficult: the crucial point is detecting a beginning trend as early as possible, while at the same time preventing false signals. An example of a trend trading strategy can be found in Workshop 4. Mean reversion (counter-trend). Traders often believe in the existence of a 'fair price' of an asset. They buy when the actual price is cheaper than it ought to be in their opinion, or sell when it is more expensive. This causes the price curve after going in a certain direction often to reverse back to the mean. An example of a mean reversion strategy can be found in Workshop 5. Cycles. When a trade is profitable, traders often sell after a certain time for taking profits; unprofitable trades are sold after a different time. This has often the effect to synchronize entries and exits among a large number of traders, and causes the price curve to oscillate with a period that is stable over a relatively long time span. Such a cycle can be detected with spectral analysis functions and used for predicting the price trend. (Those cycles in price curves are real and unrelated to the imagined "waves" mentioned below). Clusters. Traders often believe in a 'real price' of a certain asset, and sell or buy a position at the moment when the price curve reached that value. This is the reason that prices sometimes cluster at certain levels and produce the famous "support" and "resistance" lines (also called "supply" and "demand"). Curve patterns. Traders believe that price movements are preceded by certain curve patterns. Most of them - such as the famous "head and shoulders" pattern - are myths. But some patterns, for instance "cups" or "half-cups", can indeed precede an upwards or downwards movement and can be exploited by pattern-detecting methods such as the Fréchet algorithm. Acción del precio. Certain configurations of the open, close, high, or low prices of 3, 4, or 5 consecutive candles are said to predict price movements. Problem is that predictive candle patterns can't be found in books - they depend on the market, the broker's liquidity providers, and on the time zone, and thus change all the time. But done the right way, price action trading can indeed generate profit with candle patterns that are found by statistical analysis. An example for detecting profitable candle patterns with a machine learning algorithm can be found in Workshop 7. Price cap. Sometimes a governement establishes a floor or ceiling for its currency exchange rate. Interventions prevent that the exchange rate exceeds a certain limit - a famous example is the above mentioned 1.20 ceiling of the EUR/CHF rate. This can be used in strategies to the trader's advantage. Seasonality. "Season" does not necessarily mean a season of a year. Monthly, weekly, or daily trading behavior at large stock exchanges, such as the NYSE, often follows a certain pattern that can be exploited by strategies. For instance, the S&P500 index often moves upwards in the first days of a month, and also has often an upwards trend in the early morning hours before the main trading session of the day. You can detect seasonal effects with Zorro's Profile functions. Gaps. When an asset is traded during certain market hours only - such as stocks and stock indices - tomorrow's market open price can sometimes be predicted to some degree from the trading behavior at today's market close time. Arbitraje. When two assets are known to be strongly correlated, strategies can exploit the fact that their prices tend to regularly end up at the same level or the same ratio, and derive profit from temporary price deviations. Price shocks. They often happen on Monday or on Friday morning when companies or organizations publish good or bad news that affect the market. Even without knowing the news, a strategy can detect the first price reactions and quickly jump onto the bandwagon. All this sounds as if it were quite easy to exploit the markets. But trading is a game of probability. No computer can predict with certainty the outcome of a particular trade. Any detected inefficiency gives a trading system only a relatively small advantage, and mistakes can easily turn a winning strategy into a losing one. There are many traps to avoid when developing trade strategies. Although profitable strategies can be created with multiple methods, even more trade methods can and will separate traders from their money in remarkably short time. The prereqisite for any working trade method is a valid scientific foundation. However, the difference between valid science and the many strange market theories, misconceptions, and myths circulating in the trading scene is not always easy to see for non-specialists. How do you know which way of trading is sound, and which is nonsense? Here's a small part of the long list of trade methods that you better avoid. Staring at price curves. Discretionary trading - that means, entering trades manually - can be successful under one of two conditions. First, you have some information about the particular asset that other traders don't have or don't use. Second, you have a stroke of luck. Otherwise you'll lose money at least at the rate of the transaction costs. It's not possible to the human mind to identify profitable trades by looking at a price curve - except, of course, in hindsight. And although we see in Workshop 8 that luck gives a strategy a powerful edge, it has one problem: it can end anytime. Análisis técnico. This might come as a surprise, as it's normally considered the very essence of automated trading. Technical analysis uses a toolset of 'technical indicators' for determining trade entry and exit points. How indicators are supposed to work is described in the Technical Analysis chapter - but in a nutshell: they don't. At least not in the way they are normally used. Many studies confirmed that classical technical indicators such as Moving Averages, MACD, 'Stochastic', Ichimoku, etc. have no predictive value. Using them for trade signals is equivalent to throwing a coin. Still, even nonpredictive indicators can be helpful for auxiliary purposes. The ATR, for instance, can be used for determining volatility and setting up stop loss distances. Neural networks. They are the paragon of artificial intelligence - so how can it be that they don't work for trading? A neural net is fed with the price curve, processes the prices in several linear stages for generating trade signals, and learns from failure or success. Unfortunately it learns too good. A neural net based system can be extremely profitable, but only with the very historical price curve that was used for learning. Neural nets fail miserably in out-of-sample tests and in live trading. Feeding the network not with prices, but with indicators or other derivatives of the price curve should theoretically produce a similar result - but in reality the result can be very different. That's why people are still experimenting with processing the price curve in any imaginable way before passing it to the net. Nonetheless, no neural net system is known so far that would produce reliable trade signals. But - as with technical indicators - a neural net can be useful as an auxiliary part of a trade algorithm, such as a filter. You can use Zorro's advise function for experimenting with a simple one-neuron network. Elliott waves. Ralph Nelson Elliott claimed in his 1938 published book that the prices of financial assets always move up and down in series of five waves. And indeed, you can see all sorts of waves when you stare at price curves long enough. Problem is that imagined waves are not well suited for predicting real prices - and that's true not only for Elliott's waves, but also for the countless other wave patterns invented by his many imitators. No research so far has found any theoretical basis or any statistical evidence of Elliott waves in price curves. Gann lines. In the early 20th century, the trader William Delbert Gann was desperate as he could not support his family with his trading. But suddenly he discovered the way to success: promoting himself as a genius trader and selling esoteric trade systems and books. Gann was the ancestor of all scammers in the trading scene. No serious tests have ever confirmed any value of his lines, cycles, pyramids, or angles. But even today, many traders still believe in them, to the great joy of their brokers. Astrology. It's hard to believe, but until recently astrology was widely accepted as a normal trade method and discussed in many trading books. Trading would indeed be a breeze if you could calculate tomorrow's prices just from the positions of sun, moon, and planets. Alas, celestial bodies stubbornly refuse to predict earthly events. A full moon has no correlation to the EUR/USD price, Saturn won't drag down the S&P500 index, and contrary to popular belief, even the sun is not responsible for the change of seasons. All this happens on earth. Classical candle patterns. With names like "Three Stars in the South" or "Concealing Baby Swallow", they bring some poetry into trading. Candle patterns had been developed in the 18th century by Japanese traders for predicting the local rice market. Even today, many traders are still squinting at price charts, hoping for a lucky trade when a candle formation matches a profitable pattern in their "Get Rich with Candle Patterns" book. You can easily check if this hope is justified - just run a simple backtest with any of the supported classical candle patterns. Fibonacci numbers. This simple number series - 1, 2, 3, 5, 8, 13, etc. - can be found in patterns of geometric growth, in mathematics as well as in nature. But there's no reason to expect it in price levels or time periods of financial assets. And indeed, it isn't there. Nevertheless traders like the word "Fibonacci", maybe due to its ring of serious math. If a system uses Fibonacci numbers for trade signals, you can be sure that it would also work, and most likely better, with any other numbers. Harmonic trading. By connecting points on the price curve, you can produce polygonal figures such as diamonds, butterflies, crabs, or bats. Their shapes predict profitable trade entry points. Or do they? Harmonic trading is certainly profitable - for the tool and seminar vendors who invented it. But contrary to the claims of said vendors, there is absolutely no evidence that it ever helped any trader. Scalping. Systems that trade in minutes or even seconds might have an edge or not - problem is that you'll never know. Due to the bad signal/noise ratio and the feed dependency of price curves at short time frames, backtest results of such systems are very unreliable. An additional problem are the trading costs - commission, spread, slippage - that explode on short time scales, while market inefficiencies disappear. Aside from high frequency trading systems that are an entirely different matter, automated systems work best with time frames in the hour or day range. Your Trading Style. In trading books you'll often read advices like "place the stop loss at a distance that suits your trading style." This makes you wonder what "your trading style" might be. Do you prefer to trade risky, greedy, timidly, or miserly? And how should this affect the stop loss? In fact, not at all. Any parameter in a trade system has an optimal value, and any other value will produce a less than optimal result. As long as you prefer winning to losing, better select your trade methods and parameters not by your style, but by their robustness and performance. The Holy Grail. On all trader forums you'll find some lengthy threads about systems with miraculous profits. The thread starter has discovered the ultimate trade method. He feeds the thread periodically with reports of his impressive trade results - such as, doubling his account every month - and vague hints about his miracle algorithm. His devotees eagerly absorb any droplet of information in their attempts to replicate the trade method - but alas, to no avail. Miracles have the nasty habit of disappearing at closer look. The thread will eventually dry out when the miraculist got broke or when the last follower has realized that he was following a Fata Morgana. Martingale or d'Alembert methods. They are used by many trading robots, signal providers, and beginners in roulette: you bet on red or black and double your stake after every loss. Alternatively, you open two new positions for every lost trade. The theory is that a loss increases your win chance the next time. Unfortunately, it won't. On the contrary, market inefficiencies are often autocorrelated, so after losing a trade there's a good chance that you'll also lose the next one. Although martingale systems at first seem to make steady profits - even when trades are entered at random - they will encounter a long loss streak sooner or later* and wipe out the account. If that doesn't matter for you, workshop 8 describes a way to use a martingale system to your advantage. High Win Ratio. 99% win rate is easy - just use a 5 pips profit target and a 500 pips stop loss distance. You'll then probably win the next 99 trades, regardless of your strategy. Unfortunately the 100th trade will hit the stop and eat up all profit. Even worse, that fatal trade can happen anytime, even right at the beginning. You can easily identify scammers that use a high win ratio for selling their systems: their published profit curve looks like a straight upwards slope, with any trade winning about the same small amount. They don't wait until the 100th trade, though. Grid trading. Such a system is a special case of using a high win ratio, up to 100%. It opens many trades at a fixed price grid, and takes profit when the price crosses the next grid line. This method can indeed generate a stream of profits for a while when the prices move up and down, but don't move too far away from their initial position. Problem is that they eventually do, causing a fatal loss**. More capital and smaller trade sizes can delay, but not avoid that event. It's easy to tweak grid trading systems for surviving any backtest, so they are often found in trade robots and on trade copy services. There are few exceptions where grid trading can make sense - for instance when runaway prices are hedged with some method, or when the price movement is limited by external factors such as a price cap. For your own experiments you can play around with martingale and grid trading systems with the code examples under Tips&Tricks. --------------------------------- * After how many trades will a martingale system erase your account? Assume that you invest 1% of your equity per trade. After a loss you double your investment: 2%, 4%, 8%, 16%, 32%. that sums up to 63% after 5 losses, so the sixth loss will exceed 100% and cause a margin call. With 50% win rate and uncorrelated returns, the probability of 6 consecutive losses is 0.5^6 = 0.015625. The probability of this event in n trades is (1-0.015625)^n, so the number of trades until the margin call probability exceeds 50% is log(0.5)/log(1-0.015625) = 44. With one trade per day, your account will last about 2 months. A higher win rate, like 90%, won't help - the average loss is then normally also 9x higher, so the account lifetime is still the same 2 months. Investing only 0.1% instead - $10 per $10,000 capital - would extend the average account survival time to about 17 months. ** How much capital do you need for a grid trader to survive a straight price move? Assume that you have n open trades and the price moves by x pips, x being much larger than the grid size. The move will then increase the balance by x pips and reduce the open trade value by about n/2 * x pips, causing an overall equity drawdown of (n/2-1) * x pips. On a Forex account with 10 mini lots trade size, 1 $ pip cost, and an average of 20 open trades, a 500 pips (5 cents) price move produces a 9*10*500*1$ = 45,000 $ drawdown. Such moves can occur several times per year. Admin Secrets 67 comments Binary Options Trading Strategies, Techniques and Tips - The In and Outs of Making Money Trading Binary Options. 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How to play the demo version of the binary options Binary option 60 second demo playing binary options at w casino restore. this require a computer science degree nokia asha free assaxin free demo binary. How to trade in nifty option strategy Binary how to trading in nifty future examples with binary options the promotions, binary option signal sms mt4 binary option trade trading strategy strangle. Binary options in Chelyabinsk How to Trick The Binary Options System Millionaires Revealed. Or is this another appearance of a chelyabinsk meteor? The Chelyabinsk. Top Posts Copyright © 2015 Principales opciones binarias. Information on Gambling Systems & Estrategias The ultimate aim of gambling is, of course, to win money. Ever since gambling has existed, people have looked to use strategies and systems to improve their chances of doing that. This is basic human nature really. It’s somewhat logical that anyone risking their money: whether on the turn of a card, the roll of a dice, or the winner of a horse race, wants to do what they can do to make sure they win. As a result, over the years there have been many gambling systems and strategies developed. Some of these have become very well-known and followed by gamblers all over the world. The vast majority, probably, have never made it in the public domain. This will often be simply because they don’t work, but there will also no doubt be gamblers that have developed winning strategies that they just want to keep to themselves. On this page we have explained more about using strategies and systems in various forms of gambling, including how we believe a strategy is different from a system. If you are looking for information on a specific strategy or system, we cover the following in detail on other pages. The Difference Between a Strategy and a Betting System When it comes to gambling, there’s a significant difference between a strategy and a betting system in our opinion. Using a strategy is all about doing certain things that can help put the odds more in your favor, while using a betting system is primarily about adjusting your stakes according to some kind of pattern to try and maximize your winnings and/or minimizing your winnings. Not everyone would necessarily agree with our distinction between the two, but that’s how we view it. We have explained things in more detail below, and we have also provided further information on a number of gambling strategies and betting systems that you may like to consider using yourself. Gambling Strategies There are strategies you can use in pretty much any form of gambling. As we have already explained, our view of a strategy is that it’s actually doing something that can basically improve the odds for you. This is usually done by following a certain set of rules, or by learning a skill set that will improve your chances of winning money. We will now take a look at how strategies can be used in some of the most common forms of gambling. Poker There’s a strong argument that poker isn’t a form of gambling at all but is, in fact, a game of skill. We don’t really disagree with this argument although it cannot be ignored that there’s an element of chance involved. Ultimately it doesn’t really matter what label you put on it, the bottom line is that you can play poker for money and risk your money to try and make a profit. In terms of strategy, there’s an awful lot of it involved in poker. Poker strategy is really quite a complicated subject, although there are plenty of basic strategies that beginners should be able to understand reasonably easy. There’s also a lot of advanced strategy which is far more complex. Put simply, poker strategy is about being better than your opponents. If you put the effort into learning all about the game and how to play it, then you have every chance of becoming a winning player. At GamblingSites.com we have compiled a comprehensive guide to poker strategy that will help you improve your skills. Sports Betting & Horse Racing Betting While betting on sports and horse racing are unquestionably forms of gambling there’s also some skill involved. Indeed, there are many skilled professional gamblers in the world who make a good living from their betting. Most of them are successful, because they are well disciplined and also use certain strategies to consistently beat the bookmakers. Sports betting strategy is largely about understanding the sport you are betting on and understanding how to choose which bets to make and when. It isn’t exactly easy to be successful, but it’s certainly possible if you are prepared to put in the required effort. There are also certain specific strategies that you can use when betting on sports to help improve your chances of winning some money. We have covered some of these in more detail on the following pages. Casino Games Playing casino games is different than betting on sports or playing poker. The big difference is that ultimately there’s nothing you can do to put the odds in your favor. The house edge is always stacked against you. That doesn’t mean it’s impossible to win, it just means that the casino has the advantage. It basically comes down to whether you can get lucky enough to win. With that being said, there are certain games in the casino where you can apply strategies that will at least reduce the house edge to a minimum. No strategy will guarantee that you win, but by making the right decisions at the right time you can greatly improve your chances of winning. We should mention that there’s one casino game where it’s technically possible to actually put the odds in your favor: blackjack. There’s a strategy known as card counting that, if implemented correctly, can give you a small advantage over the house. It’s not an easy strategy to master and casinos will do everything they can to stop you counting cards successfully, but it can be done. Progressive Betting Systems Progressive betting systems involve adjusting the size of your wagers based on whether your previous bet won or lost. They are typically used when playing casino games, but they can be applied to other forms of gambling too. All such systems are fundamentally flawed, but providing you accept that they won’t guarantee you any winnings, they can serve a purpose. These systems can either be positive progressions, where you increase your stakes after a win, or negative progressions where you increase your stakes after a loss. The most famous example is the Martingale system, but there are many more too. For more on these systems, including examples, click here . Bonus Hunting Bonus hunting is a strategy that was very popular during the early days of online gambling sites. It involves trying to make a profit from the bonuses that sites offered to new customers. This used to be relatively easy to do as the terms and conditions for sign up bonuses were once a lot less strict than they are today. It’s much harder now and, for the most part, probably not worth investing much time in. However, it’s still possible to gain an advantage from some bonuses, so this strategy isn’t completely useless. Find out more about bonus hunting here . Online Gambling Site of The Month The Martingale Betting System By Bill Burton. Casino Gambling Expert Updated December 19, 2014. Most players in the casino are looking for a system to help them get the edge. Many of them stumble upon or hear about a surefire system that involves doubling their bets after each loss. They figure that sooner or later they have to win. This system that is called the Martingale system and it has been around for years. It has also been the ruin of many players. Here is how it works. You make a bet and if you lose you double your bet. Continue Reading Below If you lose again you double your bet. You keep doing this until you win and then go back to your original bet. Remember, this is a betting system. not a money management system. Let’s look at an example of the Martingale. For this example we will assume you are playing on a five-dollar table. First of all most casinos have a maximum bet. Many five-dollar tables have a maximum bet of $500. If you bet using the martingale where you double after every loss the progression would look like this: You bet $5 and you lose. Your next bet is $10. If you lose: Your next bet is $20. If you lose: Your next bet is $40. If you lose: Your next bet is $80. If you lose: Your next bet is $160. If you lose: Your next bet is $320. If you lose: Your next bet is $640, which exceeds the maximum bet for the table. It would only take eight losses to exceed the table maximum bet. It doesn't matter how many times you double up your bet. You will up you will only win five dollars if you eventually hit. This takes into account all your progressions up to that point. Continue Reading Below Even if you could exceed the $500 maximum bet, on the eighth bet you are risking $640 to win $5. You have already invested $635 for your previous seven bets. If you lose that one you are out $1,275. Can you imagine risking over a thousand dollars for a chance to win five dollars? The casinos know that if someone had unlimited resources they would eventually win. That is why the set maximum bets at the table. Some people who try the Martingale system have an initial success with it. They might win consistently for many sessions and swear the system is fool proof. Sooner or later reality will kick in and they will discover the flaw in the system. I know because years ago when I was naive about the casino world, I was one of those persons who tried the Martingale. To use the Martingale system you have to place even money bets. One of the most popular bets for players using this system is to bet black or red on the roulette wheel. (This is also one of the best games for showing you the flaws in the Martingale system.) Shortly after I started playing table games, I read about the Martingale and decided to give it a try on my next visit to Atlantic City. I started with a bankroll of $200 and I won $145 on my first trip using the system. I won on three trips after that building a bankroll of $500. This was too easy. I wondered how the casinos could stay in business if everyone used this system? On my next trip I took my bankroll to the table and placed my $5 on red. I lost and started the progression. I placed my next bet and lost again and again and again. I lost six bets in a row. When I lost the bet for $160 I was down $315 and only had $185 left of my five hundred dollars. I did not have enough money to bet the $320, which was the next step in the progression. I was nervous and down hearted. I couldn't believe this could happen to me. I was all ready to throw down my remaining money when I came to my senses and decided to take break. I thought about what I had just done and realized that this system was not fool proof. Anything can happen in a casino including losing several bets in a row. That was many years ago and I am wiser to the realities of the games. There are still many players however that are just hearing about the Martingale system and are convinced that they can't lose with it. Here is an easy way to see for yourself. If you believe that you can't lose seven bets in a row take a walk through the casino and look at the display board that is connected to most roulette wheels showing you the twenty previous spins. How many times do you see one color come up more than seven times in a row? I once saw black appear 17 times in a row! If you started with a five dollar bet and used the Martingale system, your 17th bet would be $327,680. No betting system will change the overall casino edge and the Martingale system can be disastrous when things go bad. Please don't be one who is fooled by this system. Until Next time remember: Luck comes and goes. Knowledge Stays Forever. Trading Binary Options for Fun and Profit. A Guide for Speculators Descripción Which one of the following two offers is more appealing to you? Making a 70% return on an easy to understand, short time investment; Joining a coin-tossing game in which when you loose you pay 1 euro and when you win you gain 70 cents. La mayoría de las personas toman la primera oferta y se alejan de la segunda. And yet. they are basically the same! Welcome to the wonderful dual world of Binary Options! You can play binary options merely for entertainment and have great fun.You might even win a lot of money, provided that you get lucky and do not stay long, just like in Vegas. Or, you can trade binary options for fun and profit. Esto es lo que trata este libro: es una guía práctica paso a paso que le muestra cómo negociar sistemáticamente, cómo identificar estrategias comerciales rentables y cómo seleccionar y usar un sistema de administración de dinero sólido. In short, how to have fun and make money!; "Trading Binary Options for Fun and Profit: A Guide for Speculators;" walks you through what you need to know and do to trade binary options profitably. Puesto que esto no es una obra de ficción, no se te mostrará la fórmula mágica que te hará rico en un abrir y cerrar de ojos. Más bien, obtendrá el conocimiento fundamental y las herramientas necesarias para convertirse en un comerciante exitoso. Usted aprenderá a desarrollar sus propias estrategias para el comercio de opciones binarias de manera rentable. En realidad, una gran cantidad de lo que está cubierto aquí es fácilmente adaptable a otros tipos de comercio, tales como la bolsa y los mercados de divisas e incluso a las apuestas deportivas. Dicho esto, no es necesario tener ningún conocimiento previo de las opciones binarias, el comercio o las matemáticas. Comienza a leer al principio y procede secuencialmente. Todo lo que necesitará saber está claramente enunciado. Si tienes un conocimiento previo de un tema, puedes pasar directamente al siguiente sin perder el contexto. Sin embargo, si usted está en duda es mejor leer a través. This book is fluff free so it won't waste your time. "Trading Binary Options for Fun and Profit: A Guide for Speculators;" starts by defining what a binary option is and how it works, the main types of trades available and the criteria you may want to consider when selecting a binary options broker. A continuación, procede a explicar por qué el uso de estrategias de negociación tiene sentido y donde usted puede encontrar ideas para crear o adaptarlos. En última instancia, usted querrá saber si su estrategia de negociación hace dinero por lo que también le muestra cómo calcular el número mágico que lo dice todo: su expectativa. Debido a que las estrategias de negociación se basan en indicadores técnicos, se presenta una breve descripción general del Análisis Técnico y se presentan algunos indicadores muy comunes. A continuación se explica la plataforma de MetaTrader y le muestra cómo puede servir como su propio asistente de investigación sin costo y proveedor de señales comerciales. A continuación, pasa por los detalles de desarrollo y mejora de una estrategia comercial utilizando Excel y expertos asesores (sin conocimientos de programación necesarios). La gestión del dinero viene a continuación: conocerá varios sistemas y en el proceso aprenderá lo fácil que es hacer una simulación de Monte Carlo para probarlos (o probar cualquier otra cosa). El libro termina con una visión general de la metodología completa y le deja con algunas sugerencias comerciales finales. Finally, in the Appendixes you will find several resources that are made available for free to the buyers of this book: Six spreadsheets containing templates for the Martingale, Paroli, D'Alembert, Fibonacci, Percentage of Bankroll and Kelly money management systems; Examples of trading strategies that backtested with winning percentages above 60%; An Expert Advisor that pops-out an alert window and plays a sound on MetaTrader each time a new trade is opened. Product details Format Paperback | 146 pages Dimensions 152 x 228 x 14mm | 300g Publication date 24 Oct 2013 Publisher Createspace Publication City/Country United States Language English Illustrations note colour illustrations ISBN10 1492890367 ISBN13 9781492890362 Sales rank 642,409 Other books in Investment & Valores About Jose Manuel Moreira Batista Jose Manuel Moreira Batista is a private trader and investor and manages private concerns. Comenzó a operar alrededor del año 2 a. C. y tuvo suerte (lo mejor sería que suena mucho mejor) para vender todas sus posiciones antes de ese fatídico lunes de octubre de 1987. Ha ocupado cargos ejecutivos en varias corporaciones -algunas todavía están de pie- y impartió cursos en Finanzas, Contabilidad y Bienes Raíces. De todos los lugares que él vive en Cascais - Portugal, la tierra del impuesto creciente. He can sometimes be reached at morbat.com." Explore How can we help Join us Important stuff We accept these payment methods &dupdo; 2016 The Book Depository Ltd. UK. Registered company number: 5124926 Monte Carlo Introduction Welcome to the monte carlo simulation experiment with python. Before we begin, we should establish what a monte carlo simulation is. The idea of a monte carlo simulation is to test various outcome possibilities. In reality, only one of the outcome possibilities will play out, but, in terms of risk assessment, any of the possibilities could have occurred. Monte carlo simulators are often used to assess the risk of a given trading strategy say with options or stocks. Monte carlo simulators can help drive the point home that success and outcome is not the only measure of whether or not a choice was good or not. Choices should not be assesed after their outcome. Instead, the risks and benefits should only be considered at the time the decision was made, without hindsight bias. A monte carlo simulator can help one visualize most or all of the potential outcomes to have a much better idea regarding the risk of a decision. With that, let's consider a basic example. Here, we will consider a gambling scenario, where a user can "roll" the metaphorical dice for an outcome of 1 to 100. If the user rolls anything from 1-50, the "house" wins. If the user rolls anything from 51 to 99, the "user" wins. If the user rolls a 100, they lose. With this, the house maintains a mere 1% edge, which is much smaller than the typical house edge, as well as the market edge when incorporating trading costs. For example, consider if you are trading with Scottrade, where the house takes $7 a trade. If you invest $1,000 per stock, this means you have $7 to pay in entry, and $7 to pay in exit, for a total of $14. This puts the "house edge" to 1.4% right out of the gate. Notably, Scottrade is not the actual house. The house is just not you. This means that, on a long term scale, your bets need to do better than 1.4% profit on average, otherwise you will be losing money. Despite the small number, the odds are already against you. Trading is a 50/50 game, especially in the short term. A monte carlo generator can also help illustrate the flaws of the gambler's fallacy. Many gamblers, and sometimes especially gamblers who understand statistics, fall prey to the gambler's fallacy. The fallacy asserts that, taking something like the flipping of a coin for heads or tails, you have a known 50/50 odds. That said, if you just flipped heads five times a row, somehow you're more likely to flip tails next. No matter how many heads have preceeded, your odds, each time you flip the coin are 50/50. It is easy to fall into the trap of thinking that on a long term scale odds will correlate to 50/50 therefor if the odds are imbalanced currently then the next flip's odds are also not 50/50 So again, with our example in mind, 1-50, house wins. 51-99 user wins. A perfect 100 means house wins. Now, let's begin. We first need to create our dice. For this, we'll employ the pseudo random number generator in python. Seventeen Trade Methods That I Don’t Really Understand When I started with technical trading, I felt like entering the medieval alchemist scene. A multitude of bizarre trade methods and hundreds of technical indicators and lucky candle patterns promised glimpses into the future, if only of financial assets. I wondered – if a single one of them would really work, why would you need all the rest? And how can you foretell tomorrow’s price by drawing circles, angles, bats or butterflies on a chart? There is no real answer, as the inventors of those methods usually forgot to mention – aside from some vague financial verbiage – how and why they are supposed to work, and which market pattern or inefficiency they are supposed to exploit. Often the methods are merely recipes to be followed meticulously, like the spells in ancient conjuring books. Superstition and esotericism in financial trading are approved by seemingly serious organizations such as the Market Technicians Association. and even trained in their certification programs! Here’s a certainly non-complete list of ways of trading that I still fail to understand. Staring at Price Curves. Opening and closing positions manually without a trading system can work. When you have some information about the particular asset that the other traders don’t have. Or when you got a stroke of luck. Otherwise you can rightfully expect to lose your money at the rate of the transaction costs. In reality it’s even worse – private traders lose on average 13 pips per trade, according to FXCM statistics. The human mind can do a lot of things, but it can not identify a market inefficiency by looking at a price curve. Studies have shown that ‘expert traders’ can not even distinguish real price curves from meaningless random numbers – something even a simple computer algorithm has no problem with. And as to luck, it indeed endows about 35% of private traders every year with some profit or at least no loss, but it has one problem: it can end anytime. Which of the two price curves is real? Análisis técnico. Do traditional ‘technical indicators’, such as MACD, Stochastic, Ichimoku etc. really work? A study by David Aronson, described in his “Evidence-Based TA” book, suggests otherwise. None of the studied basic indicators was any better than throwing a coin. However, the study only applied the indicators to the S&P500 index. The trend experiment suggests that this index is by far the least predictable of the tested asset types, at least for trend following. So it’s still unproven whether classic indicators do sometimes work, or not at all. And as long as this is the case, it’s not clear to me why they are so widely and naively used. Elliott Waves. Ralph Nelson Elliott claimed in his 1938 published book that the prices of financial assets always move up and down in a certain pattern of five waves. He gave many examples. And indeed you can see all sorts of waves when you stare at curves long enough. Elliott explained his waves with “mass psychology”, but was not interested in going into details. Although cycles in price curves are real, there is no reason why they schould appear in series of five. Thus lacking a rational background, one should think that there was at least some statistical evidence of Elliott Waves – but no. As to my knowledge, no serious research has ever found any sign of Elliott Waves in real price curves, nor of the countless variants invented by his many imitators. Gann’s Magic Square Gann Magic. In the early 20th century, the trader William Delbert Gann was desperate, as he could not support his family with his trading. But suddenly he discovered the way to success: Planting anecdotes that promoted himself as a genius trader, and selling esoteric trade systems and books. It seems that Gann was the ancestor of all scammers in the trading scene. He did not die rich, though, as in his late years he apparently began to believe in his own methods. He lost at the stock market all wealth he accumulated by marketing his methods. I know of no tests that found any value in his squares, lines, cycles, pyramids, or angles. But even today, many traders still believe in them, to the great joy of their brokers. Astrology. It’s widely accepted as a normal trade method and discussed in many trading books. Even Perry Kaufman, in his standard reference of trading systems, published code to calculate the Jupiter-Saturn cycle! Indeed, trading would be a breeze if you could calculate tomorrow’s prices just from the positions of sun, moon, and planets. But sorry, Perry: Celestial bodies still stubbornly refuse to predict earthly events. No test ever confirmed a correlation of the full moon and the EUR/USD price. Neither was Saturn ever observed dragging down the S&P500 index. And contrary to popular belief, even the sun is not responsible for the change of seasons (it’s the tilt of the earth axis). As long as we got no interstellar stock exchange, trading still happens on earth. Rice Candle Patterns. With names like “Three Stars in the South” or “Concealing Baby Swallow”, they bring at least some poetry into trading. Candle patterns had been developed in the 18th century by Japanese traders for predicting the local rice markets. And indeed they might have had some value back then. But even today many traders are still squinting at price charts, hoping for a lucky trade when a candle formation matches a bullish pattern in their “Get Rich with Candle Patterns” book. The TA-Lib fortunately contains indicators of all those patterns, so I could run quick tests of them with several assets, similar to the trend indicator test. You can imagine the result. & # 8211; By the way, new patterns invented by trade book authors – “Lizard’s Day”, “Gilligan’s Island” etc. – didn’t fare any better. Fibonacci Numbers. This simple number series – 1, 2, 3, 5, 8, 13, etc. – can be found in some patterns of geometric growth. But there’s no reason to expect it in the price levels or time periods of financial assets. And indeed, it isn’t there. As far as I know, no one has ever discovered any price series property related to Fibonacci Numbers, or to Golden Ratios, Golden Squares, or Golden Whatevers derived from them. Nevertheless traders seem to like the word “Fibonacci”, maybe because it lets them imagine that they apply serious math. When a system uses Fibonacci Numbers for trade signals, you can safely assume that it would also work, and most likely better, with any other numbers. Harmonic Trading. By connecting pivot points on the price curve, you can produce funny polygonal figures such as diamonds, butterflies, crabs, or bats. Their shapes predict profitable trade entry points. Or do they? No conozco & # 8211; I admit I have not yet tested a system based on trade predictions by polygonal figures. I’m only sure that harmonic trading is profitable for the tool and seminar vendors who promote it. Your Trading Style. In trading books you’ll often read advices like ‘ place the stop loss at a distance that suits your trading style ‘. This makes you wonder what Your Trading Style might be. Do you trade fast, slow, risky, greedy, or in the style of the Kamikaze? And should this style affect the distance of the stop loss? Yo creo que no. Since any parameter in a trade system has an optimal or most robust value, any other value will therefore produce a less than optimal result. If it suits your style to win rather than lose, I think you better select your trade methods and parameters not by style, but by performance. Your Trading Plan. You trade for increasing your fortune in three years from $5000 to $500,000 . So you’ve created a detailed plan by which percentage it has to grow every week. Fortunately, it’s just 3%. Unfortunately, the markets could not care less about Your Trading Plan. And if you’re following some system, your wins and losses will often have serial correlation. So when you continue trading after a loss until you reached your weekly goal, usually only your loss will grow. And the initial $5000 will become zero dollars – not in 3 years, but much faster. The Holy Grail. On any trader forum you’ll find some lengthy thread about a system with miraculous profits. The thread starter has discovered the ultimate trade method. He feeds the thread periodically with reports of his impressive trade results – such as, doubling his account every month – and vague hints about his miracle algorithm and its complex math. His devotees eagerly absorb any droplet of information in their attempts to replicate the trade method – but alas, some essential ingredient is always missing. Miracles have the nasty habit of disappearing at closer look. The thread will eventually dry out when either the miraculist got broke or when the last follower has realized that he was following a Fata Morgana. If you found a miracle method where this did not happen, please let me know! Robots. They are offered by anonymous vendors on countless websites. And supported by likewise anonymous users that all claim on trader forums that they have earned millions with that particular robot. Theoretically, a correctly developed and tested robot could indeed work, if algorithmic trading works at all. But apparently none is offered for sale. What you get instead are pieces of software together with faked trade histories or faked live trading equity curves, like this one: Typical robot equity curve Can you see from the above curve when this robot started selling? Hint: It’s close to the end. How to produce such at least partially impressive equity curves on verified live trading accounts with a totally worthless strategy is explained in Workshop 8 of the Zorro tutorial. But if you ever encounter a real person who really made money by buying a robot, please notify me… Book systems. There are countless books describing countless trade systems – and certainly not all of them are useless. But amazingly, many of those praised systems survive not even a simple backtest. The authors often suspect this already. That’s why some – for instance, best selling trade book writer Thomas Carr – warn strongly against testing their systems because “backtests are useless anyway”. This is correct – insofar as a positive backtest does not prove that the system works. But a negative backtest means with certainty that the money you paid for Carr’s books will be the least of your worries when you really trade one of his systems. Almost 90% of all systems from books, forums or websites that I’ve tested were clear losers – and this could often be determined in 5 minutes. Trade Copy Services. The best-known provider is Zulutrade® . but many competitors have meanwhile entered this lucrative business. The principle is always the same: Let others place your trades. Follow successful traders and copy their trading. In theory, a brilliant idea. If those successful traders really existed. And indeed, you seem to have plenty of choice on the provider’s website. Select some of the Top Traders with 500% profit and impressive equity curve, place an investment, and wait for the money to roll in. After a while you will inevitably find that it rolls in the other direction. One after the other of your selected Top Traders encountered a nasty drawdown, and their equity curves now all look like the robot curve above. Damn bad luck – or is anything else behind it? Behind it is no scam, but simple statistics. Thousands of traders compete for followers on copy services. In the Top Traders list you’ll only find those who trade risky but had a stroke of luck so far. Because luck does not last, the Top list is changing permanently. A trader’s survival time in that list is a few weeks, maybe months – then his fortune takes a dip, and takes all his followers with it. The trader won’t mind. After the crash he just opens a new account under a new name. He has earned considerably more follower commission than he lost with his trading. Tip: Look not into the Top Traders, but into the Top Followers list (if the provider dares to publish one). That might give you an idea of the likelihood of keeping your money when copying trades. Martingale or d’Alembert Methods. They are used by many trading robots, signal providers, and beginners in roulette: you bet on red or black and double your stake after every loss. Alternatively, you open two new positions for every lost trade. The theory is that a loss increases your win chance the next time. Unfortunately, it won’t. On the contrary, market inefficiencies can be autocorrelated, so after losing a trade there’s a good chance that you’ll also lose the next one. Although martingale systems at first seem to make steady profits – even when trades are entered at random – they will encounter a long loss streak sooner or later and wipe out the account. How long will it take until this happens? Assume that you invest 1% of your equity per trade. After a loss you double your investment: 2%, 4%, 8%, 16%, 32%… and the sixth loss will empty your account and cause a margin call. With 50% win rate and uncorrelated returns, the probability of 6 consecutive losses is 0.5 6 = 0.015625 . The probability of this event not happening in n trades is (1-0.015625) n . so the number of trades until the margin call probability exceeds 50% is log(0.5)/log(1-0.015625) = 44 . With one trade per day, your account will last about 2 months. A higher win rate, like 90%, won’t help – the average loss is then normally also 9 times higher, so the account lifetime is still the same 2 months. Investing only 0.1% instead – $10 per $10,000 capital – would extend the average account survival time to about 17 months. Deadly Accuracy. A 99% win rate is easy – just use a 5 pips profit target and a 500 pips stop loss distance. You’ll then probably win the next 99 trades, regardless of your strategy. Unfortunately the 100th trade will hit the stop and eat up all profit. Even worse, that fatal trade can happen anytime, even right at the beginning. You can easily identify scammers that use a high win ratio for selling their systems: their published profit curve looks like a straight upwards slope, with any trade winning about the same small amount. They usually don’t wait until the 100th trade, though. Grid trading. Such a system is a special case of using a high win ratio, up to 100%. It opens many trades at a fixed price grid, and takes profit when the price crosses the next grid line. This method can indeed generate a stream of profits for a while when the prices move up and down, but don’t move too far away from their initial position. Problem is that they eventually do… How much capital would you need for a grid trader to survive such a price move? Assume that you have n open trades and the price moves by x pips, x being much larger than the grid size. The move will then increase the balance by x pips and reduce the open trade value by about n/2 * x pips, causing an overall equity drawdown of (n/2-1) * x pips. On a Forex account with 10 mini lots trade size, 1 $ pip cost, and an average of 20 open trades, a 500 pips (5 cents) price move produces a 9*10*500*1$ = 45,000 $ drawdown. Such moves can occur several times per year. More capital and smaller trade sizes can delay, but not avoid that event. It’s easy to tweak grid trading systems for surviving any backtest, so they are often found in trade robots and on trade copy services. There are few exceptions where grid trading can make sense – for instance when runaway prices are hedged with some method, or when the price movement is limited by external factors such as a price cap. Looking at all those methods it seems not really surprising that most traders lose money. But maybe I’m mistaken – if you have some solid evidence that one of the above methods does in fact work, please let me know! 7 thoughts on “Seventeen Trade Methods That I Don’t Really Understand” Just found your blog. Congrats, it’s amazing! I am unsure about a sentence on item #1: How could you tell a randomly generated price curve from a real one? Oops! I tried to enclose the quote in “<>” characters and it seems that the blog content system did not like it. Let me paste it here: ‘expert traders’ can not even distinguish real price curves from meaningless random numbers – something even a simple computer algorithm has no problem with” There are many methods for a computer algo to detect a real price curve, the simplest is just counting the sequences of rising and falling bars. In a real price curve you have less up-down or down-up sequences as in a random walk curve, but more up-up and down-down sequences. Here’s a statistic: Red is real, blue is random. The height of the bars is the count of sequences of rising or falling prices with their lengths on the x axis. These differences between real and random sequences appear in most markets and time frames. A similar method is the MMI. Random data has a MMI of 75%, anything significantly less than 75% is a real curve. I think there’s survivorship bias in some of the strategies you’ve listed. We likely hear about Gann or Elliot Waves because it seems to have worked for some trader in the past and they publish a paper or book on it that gets a lot of attention. Most people will try these strategies – if they work, they publish more praise for it; if they don’t, they blame something else – and this further perpetuates it. Relatively few people will actually do a study and verify the claims made by that particular technical trading strategy. There’s definately a great deal to know about this subject. I like all the points you made. When I first started investigating trading I was similarly bemused as you were with all these systems. Unfortunately to get to the point where you know which are rubbish and which are not required a lot of reading, testing and wasted time. It is very nice to see a summarized list of what took so much study to know! Great work. Deja un comentario Cancelar respuesta Would like an EA built that scalps the donchian channel 1. Indicator must be able to use different donchian channel sizes i.e. 5, 10, 17 period etc. 2. Must be able to set different T/P and S/L levels i.e 10, 20 100 pip etc. (includes stoploss 0) 3. Variable lot sizes .01 lots minimum 4. Ability to trade only long or short 5. Multiple orders per bar minimum 1 maximum 3. 6. Works on any timeframe 7. Multiple open positions max 20000 8. Progression if no take profit: 0: no progression 1: d'alembert 2: martingale 9. Profit lock system. 5 to .9 10. Close open orders in fifo sequence once profit lock is made We'd like to share with you our free EAs. You can download them at: link At this moment we are sharing 10 free EAs all of them including money management with different risk levels (percentage, d'alembert, martingale. ). These are our EAs: - RSI Grid - CCI Cross Grid - Super Money Grid - Momentum Grid - Stochastic Grid - Ichimoku EA - Heiken Ashi MA EA - ADX Cross EA - BBands Stop EA - Fisher M11 EA We are not sharing source code for the moment just because comments, vars and function names are not in english language. We will share the source code after a few weeks once everything will be translated. Apr 20, 2011, 12:50pm Joined Dec 2010 EA updates 4 expert advisors have been updated to version v1.3: - RSI Grid - CCI Cross Grid - Momentum Grid - Stochastic Grid Changelog v1.3 Data display - EA shows the current configuration - EA show information abut TP/SL levels, profit locked, lots used. Help lines plotted - EA shows solid lines indicating take profit levels. - EA shows dashed lines indicating profit locked once you reach take profit level (uptated in real time) Apr 20, 2011, 12:52pm Joined Aug 2009 Can any of these EA's make a cup of tea and serve it to me with biscuits. Apr 21, 2011, 8:54am Joined Dec 2010 Originally Posted by Ambrose Ackroyd Can any of these EA's make a cup of tea and serve it to me with biscuits ? I'm sorry. Never tea and biscuits. Our EAs only serve coffe and donuts. Wine International Axis is a French company that facilitates wine trading between the different actors. Based in the south west of France, we aim to satisfy any of your desires. Thanks to our experience on the global wine market and company values we aim to offer a personalized long term business relationship with our clients. Providing our clients with the best French wines and prices for every category and region is our primary goal. We follow your vision & bring to life your ideas. In order to offer more, we consider each demand as specific and different. We therefore create a unique and appropriate way to serve our clients with efficiency for their success. 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Not only can TSM be used to analyse your bets it can also be used to track your bets. Once you have chosen your staking plan the next stake is automatically calculated so that you do no work. To assist in your analysis – many statistics and features have been programmed into the software. There are 17 Back Staking Plans including Level, 1326, D’alembert, Fibonacci, Percentage, Parlay, Pro, Secure, Fixed, Kelly, Square Root, Labouchere, Retirement, Bookies Bank, the infinite settings of XYZ, Up X Down Y and finally L.P.28. 11 Lay Staking Plans including Lay Level, Fixed Liability, Mixed,Percentage Liability, Lay Percentage, Maria, Lay Ladder, Lay Kelly, Lay 1-4, Lay HiPro86 SP4 and Lay % Recovery. 2 Each Way Staking Plans – E/W Level, EW Combined and many more to be added. A bankruptcy Test telling you instantly whether the selected staking plan is actually possible. And Minimum and Maximum Stake Settings can be set so that all staking plans can be strictly adhered to. And In-depth Analysis including ROI, Profit, Draw-down and Sequences and a confidence test for each staking plan. You can also view detailed graphs for each staking plan, including cumulative profit, sequence stats, draw down and odds frequency. It can generate 4000 Random Bets to simulate your own bet selection systems. And there’s a Dutch Calculator Included. You can also import bet results from Microsoft Excel and Microsoft Works instantly by simply copy/pasting using the specially designed TSM interface or load CSV / TEXT files directly into the software. This means TSM is compatible with virtually all spreadsheet programs that you may be using. You can then save your bet data into CSV / TEXT files or the specially created TSM files and filter bets in odds ranges or even add your own text based filters. As usual, I’ll be posting daily results and keeping you up to date with my current settings. There is a free trial you can download so you can get an idea if the staking machine is great for you use. Also pop your head into their friendly forum for advise and tips. I would be interest to hear your comments or questions, Have a great day and good luck to you all, as always. Details Created: 05 September 2011 The Staking Machine or TSM for short . is a professional sports betting tool. It is a cutting-edge, bet tracking and system analysis tool. TSM shows you at a glance which staking plan would be best suited to your chosen selection method. Staking Plans in TSM If you are going to make money long term in betting you need to have some sort of money management in place. Professional Bettors treat their betting as a business. By simply recording your bets in detail is a great start to making money long term. If you want to go the next level you need to use the correct type of staking plan for your selection system. The Staking Machine has every type of staking plan conceivable. From low risk level stakes to the high risk Pro Staking Plan. From the famous Fibonacci Sequence to the not so famous Bookies Bank Staking Plan. Is your current staking plan likely to bankrupt you. Could you increase your profits by using a recovery based staking plan whilst still keeping your risk level low. If you are new to staking plans it is well worth having a read through the staking plan descriptions in the left and right columns on this page. There are 41 Back and Lay Staking Plans available in TSM - These are available in all versions of TSM. There are an additional 2 Each Way Staking Plans that are available in the Desktop Version of TSM. One click is all it takes to switch staking plans and see if you could of increased profits by making a few simple changes. Each staking plan is fully editable. A Description for each staking plan can be found in the right hand column on every page on the TSM main site. 23 Back Staking Plans - Level Stakes, 1326, D’alembert, Fibonacci, Percentage, Parlay, Pro, Secure, Fixed, Kelly, Square Root, Labouchere, Retirement, Bookies Bank, the infinite settings of XYZ, Up X Down Y, L.P.28, Stop at a Winner, Recovery, Rolling Doubles, Recovery Type 2, Bookies Bank V2 and Bookies Bank V3. 16 Lay Staking Plans - Lay Level, Fixed Liability, Mixed, Percentage Liability, Lay Percentage, Maria, Lay Ladder, Lay Kelly, Lay 1-4, Lay HiPro86 SP4, Lay % Recovery, Lay Labouchere, Lay XYZ, Lay % Up Down, Lay Maria Liability and Lay Goff. 2 Each Way Staking Plans – Each-Way Level and Each-Way Combined Editable Settings - Each staking plan can be configured to allow for virtually any possibility. TSM Version 5.0 (Desktop) Screenshot Use TSM as a Bet Tracker and run your betting like a business. One of the most popular uses of TSM is simply as a Bet Tracker. Recording your bets and treating your betting like you would a business is arguably the most important thing you can ever do to start making a long term profit. Each Selection System can be saved in seperate files. These are called TSM files. These are basic Text Files. You can have as many different TSM files as you need. The number of bets that you can run through TSM is only limited by the processing power of your computer. On a top end computer TSM can comfortably run with over 100,000 bets. You can use TSM to record your bets from your own selection method, or from multiple systems, on a daily basis, so that it keeps a record of your entire betting business in one handy place. You can also import all of your past betting data into TSM using the TSM Import Wizard. This allows you to import data directly from spreadsheet programs such as Microsoft Excel or OpenOffice. You can also Import CSV or TXT Files. If you are looking to sign up to a tipster service then before you do so make sure you import the past results into TSM and see at a glance if the tipster is profitable. To assist in Betting Tipster Research TSM includes 2 Parsing tools. Using a special browser built into the software, import past selections from any tipster that proofs on www.racing-index.com. You can also The Bet Engine Conclusion Part 2 Hello, IanW here again with the 2nd and final report on The Bet Engine . And, in case you missed it, here’s Part 1 . In this second instalment we’ll be looking at staking plans and using TBE to set up and run systems. ( If however, you’ve no idea what I’m talking about, I recommend you begin by reading Lucy’s introductory article before coming back for my first report). The Bet Engine Staking plans As well as setting up bets using a mammoth range of criteria (see Part 1 ), you can apply a wide range of staking plans to both individual systems and multiple systems (via the Link facility – it’s in Part 1). There are separate staking plans for backing and laying. Here are their main features: Level – Yes, you guessed, betting to level stakes. Fixed % – Betting a fixed % of the bank. Fixed Profit – Betting to make a fixed profit. % Profit – Betting to make a fixed % of the bank. Kelly – A complex and aggressive system based on the win probability of your system. Banded – The stake is varied according to a set of bands the odds fall into. Secure – A specific banded system. These are what you might call ‘straight’ betting systems. There’s a ticky box you can tick which then enables recovery staking plans. Recovery plans can be aggressive and dangerous, so you need to tick the box just to show that you’re aware of the risks. Incluyen: % Recovery – Aims to recover a loss over a series of follow-on bets. Fibonacci – A series of bets based on the Fibonacci sequence which starts 1, 2, 3, 5, 8, 13, 21. 1326 – Uses a sequence of 1, 3, 2, and 6 points. XYZ – Similar to 1326 but you can specify the exact sequence to use. Square Root – Adds the square root of the cumulative profit to the next bet. Bookie’s Bank – Bets a % of the losses. Pro – Aggressive plan that aims to make a specified number of points per race. LP28 – A long price-based sequence with 28 bets using the sequence: 1111111111222222333344455667. Labouchere – A popular staking method which crosses out the first and last numbers in the sequence after a win and adds a losing bet to the end of the sequence. D’alembert – Built around a sequence of increasing multipliers such as 1, 2, 3, 4, 5. Price Divisor – A gentle recovery plan where the recovery amount is divided by a divisor and added to the stake. % Up Down – Adjusts the size of the stake by a fixed % on both a win and a loss. Rolling – An accumulator-type plan where the profits from a winning bet are added to the current stake. 1-4 – Adds 1 to each losing bet up to a maximum of 4. XYZ Threshold – Similar to XYZ but you can terminate recovery once a set % of losses have been recovered. Lay stakes After so many stakes you’re probably ready for the chips now – sorry! – but it would be churlish, not to say incomplete, not to mention the plans specifically for lay bets. Many of the plans above can be use when laying but here’s a few more: Fixed Liability – All bets placed with the same liability. % Liability – Bets placed with a fixed % liability of the bank. Mixed – Combines Level Stakes and Fixed Liability. Selections with odds below a cut-off point are bet with Fixed Stakes. Ratchet (Maria) – This achieved notoriety in trading circles. Different % of the bank is used for different odds ranges. Ladder – Aims to recover losses over a set number of bets while still making a profit on the original bet. HiPro86 SP4 – Limits loses by dividing the loss by 4 and using it for the next 4 bets. You can see there are lots of options. And also lots of opportunities to lose money as well as make it, so you really need to understand the systems you are using, the staking plans and how the two perform together. A good while ago I ran some systems through a few different staking plans. The details are lost in the annals of history, poor memory and a devastating system crash, but I do remember one thing – certain staking plans worked much better than others with specific systems. So if you have a positive expectancy system, it’s well worth running it through a few staking plans to see which one does it most good. There’s probably another article in there somewhere….. Just testing One of the neat features of TBE is the ability to test a system without committing real money. Several programs can do this but they all come up against the same problem which is that test mode cannot duplicate live results with 100% accuracy. As no money is actually being put into the Betfair market and no money actually requested at specific odds, all a test system can do is to see if the Betfair price hits the requested odds and, if it does, assume that you’d have been matched. It’s a reasonable assumption but if, for example, you’re trying to bet only if the SP is within a certain range (such as with Stallion Picks) then it’s a bit more tricky. Picking Stallions As the SP is not calculated until the Off you cannot, of course, place a bet at SP. However, with real betting you can specify the minimum SP you’ll take so that, in the case of Stallion Picks. for example, solves that. In fact, using TBE with Stallion Picks with real money, TBE achieved the exact SP in every single case we tested. But, if you only want to test a system without using real money, TBE can handle that in a couple of ways. One involves ‘betting’ at SP InPlay and if the price hits the SP then you’ll be considered matched. It’s not perfect but such is the nature of the beast, and it gets as close to live betting as you’re likely to get. Another aspect of this worth pointing out, is that you can only specify a minimum SP if you’re staking the Betfair minimum bet. If you want to bet below this you must use an alternative such as getting the SP at the Off and then trying to get matched InPlay, or betting close to the Off if the price is at the right level. From a practical point of view, if betting below the minimum, you might think it more important to be on the right selection rather than holding out for specific odds. To do that with TBE you’d select the Maximise Chances option. However, in the case of systems such as Stallion Picks that require a minimum SP, that wouldn’t be following the system exactly. You need to make the call. Roll your own Some of my own system ideas are straightforward, others less so, so I tried setting up the rules of one straightforward system in TBE. It was, er, fairly straightforward! I did have to consult the manual a couple of times but the resulting system ran perfectly catching the right odds at the right price at the right time. I then tried a slightly more complex system. Most of it was straightforward but one option required knocking out a few horses at the bottom of the list (ie those with the highest odds). TBE couldn’t quite do that but it was just a system tweak and it ran the system without that perfectly, too. I also have a system with slightly different criteria for flat, chase and hurdle races. In TBE, each of these would need to be set up as a separate system. This is easy enough to do but as TBE is priced on a per-system basis, you’d need to buy a version with enough systems – coming right up. Roll someone else’s As mentioned briefly in Part 1. TBE has the option to load selections from tipsters so you don’t have to key in the data. The ill-fated Rampage Selections started to offer this, although they were a subset of the full selections and had to be saved as a CSV file. But a good start. I’m not sure how many other tipsters have taken this up yet but it would be a great time-saver. Many systems currently under trial here describe how to set them up with TBE so this is another good step forward. Plug it in TBE can also be extended through the use of plug-ins. These are just coming into effect and haven’t been documented yet but they allow you to perform additional selections and analysis of the data. A custom plug-in, for example, could allow me to ignore bottom-end horses in a race as in my last system. Here’s a system for yer! So how much is this wonderful piece of software? TBE is priced according to how many systems it can run. You can also get a trial of the 2-system version free for 7 days which is heartily recommended, but do it when you’ll have time to explore the options in detail. Apoyo Finally, I must mention support. I had several queries during the course of the trial and the vast majority received replies almost by return from the redoubtable Alistair Moffatt. He was very patient in explaining the intricacies of Betfair’s and TBE’s betting and matching, even answering questions he probably thought inane. He didn’t swear at me once so 11/10 there! Conclusión TBE does have a level of, well, you might call it sophistication or complexity, depending on how prepared you are to learn what it can do and how it works. And these reports have not been able to list all its features or options. It’s a formidable program and if you have systems based on odds, form, ranking and the like, the chances are TBE will be able to run it for you. Open the Passed folder and let it in! (Visited 1 times, 1 visits today) Staking Plan and Betting Stakes Calculators / Software Please find below Staking Plan Calculators and Betting Stakes Software. We all know that a professional staking plan and the full and accurate recording of our betting activities is crucial to success unless you are a mug punter just having a bit of fun! The following offer clever solutions and options for recording your bets and calculating betting stakes with various plans including level, Kelly, Labouchere, Fibonacci etc. We tend to believe that all 'good' systems should work to level stakes and not require a clever staking plan in order to secure profits BUT we also recognise that some staking plans can increase your profits over level stakes. Our advice, take the issue of staking and recording very seriously and consider visiting these sites in order to get a good idea of whats available to assist you with your betting. Staking Plan Software - Betting Stakes THE COMPLETE STAKING PLAN SYSTEM AND BET TRACKER! The Staking Machine is a clever piece of Windows software that allows you to calculate betting stakes based on many highly respected staking strategies including level, 1326, D'alembert, Fibonacci Percentage, Parlay Pro, Secure ,Fixed, Kelly, Square Root, Laboucher and also LAY Betting staking plans including Lay Level, Fixed Liability, Lay Mixed, Percentage Liability, Lay Percentage, Maria, Lay Ladder, Lay Kelly etc. Review: Click Here for Full Review of The Staking machine - Betting Stakes Software It also allows you to record all your betting activity and test how your bets would have performed with the various staking plans. Well worth the small investment. For me it paid for itself in a matter of hours. If you promote a ' Good Quality ' betting stakes calculator of tracker system that you feel would benefit my visitors and would like to discuss affiliate options, please contact us with your proposal / details. Hanging Men are typically only identified after a prolonged uptrend or extremely bullish move in the stock's price. Unlike a hammer, a hanging man must come after a significant move in the stock's price and therefore requires some time in order to fully develop, but there is no specific amount of time identified as appropriate for the pattern to be complete. Ultimately, look for a very strong move in the stock's price with a small body on top of a long shadow, minimum of twice the length of the body. Important Keys Hanging Man · Trend: Up prior to appearance · Description: Shadow must be 2 times the length of the body · Confirmation: Prolonged uptrend with a close in price below the body · Stop-loss: Below the shadow Another critical element of a hanging man would be the confirmation, which unlike the hammer is necessary for the pattern to be significant. The confirmation should come with a close in price below the body of the hanging man as a minimum. A stronger signal would be a close in price below the shadow of the hanging man. The general psychology behind a hanging man is simple, but not intuitive. The idea is that bears came into the stock and drove the price down after a prolonged rally and the bulls came back in later on that same day to drive the price back up. The real signal comes on the confirmation with the price of the stock closing lower than the body or shadow of the hanging man. This generally indicates that the bears have gained enough strength to overcome the strong rally of the bulls. This particular pattern can either be open or closed and does not indicate greater strength one way or another. One-Bar Patterns: Shooting Star Shooting stars are more common and often indicate weakness in the stocks price. The idea is that the bulls came into the market and drove the price up only to be pushed back by the bears. This particular signal should have confirmation with the next day's activity, with price closing below the body of the shooting star. A stop-loss should be entered above the shadow of the shooting star, which gives the stock room to retest the area of the shadow. Important Keys Shooting Star · Trend: Up prior to appearance · Description: Shadow must be 2 times the length of the body · Confirmation: Next day must close below the body · Stop-loss: Above the shadow One-Bar Patterns: Tombstone This is essentially a shooting star without the body, but is considered extremely pronounced and less common than a regular shooting star. The idea is that the market opened and the bulls pushed the price up, but the bears came back in to close the price of the stock at the opening price for the day. There should be little to no shadow on the bottom of this pattern. Remember, the trend must have been up previously for this to count as a bearish reversal pattern. Important Keys Tombstone · Trend: Up prior to appearance · Description: Horizontal line with a long vertical line (Shooting Star without a body) · Confirmation: Not necessary · Stop-loss: Above the shadow Two-Bar Patterns: Dark Cloud Cover The trend of the stock has been strong to the upside and on the open of the signal day the price of the stock is driven down under pressure from the bears, or sellers looking to take profits after the bullish run. This pattern is the exact opposite of a piercing line, which often indicates a sign of strength. Remember, the signal day must close below the middle of the previous candle's body in order to be confirmed. Typically it is not necessary to wait for further confirmation, but you could wait one more day for the price to close even lower than the signal day. Important Keys Dark Cloud Cover · Trend: Up prior to appearance · Description: Signal day must close below the middle of the previous up day · Confirmation: Not necessary · Stop-loss: Above the shadow Make sure you can identify the differences between a Dark Cloud Cover and a Piercing Line. Despite one being bearish and the other bullish, they are essentially the same but on opposite sides of the spectrum. The idea of entering on this particular signal is similar to the piercing line pattern, which is a strong indication of price reversal. You should look to enter your stop above the middle of the previous trading day's body in order to give the price room to retest resistance, which is a common occurrence we will discuss more in the next chapter. Two-Bar Patterns: Harami Just as was the case for the bullish harami, the bearish harami is a reversal pattern that requires confirmation of the trend change on the following day prior to entering the trade. Unlike the piercing line or dark cloud cover patterns, which are extremely decisive in their change in direction, the harami indicates a change in direction with indecision. The indecision is represented by the spinning top or doji, which can either be closed or open. Typically the first Important Keys Harami · Trend: Up prior to appearance · Description: Spinning top or doji inside the previous trading day's range · Confirmation: Next day must close below body of the spinning top or the doji · Stop-loss: Above the body of the previous trading day's range day will be open and the spinning top will be closed, but it is not required. The psychological element of this pattern is that the bulls have been clearly in control until a small spinning top or doji presents itself, which represents the indecision on the part of the bulls. Since a spinning top or doji represents indecision in the market, we are required to wait for the third day for confirmation. The price on the third day needs to close below the body of the spinning top or doji. Two-Bar Patterns: Bearish Engulfing The price of the stock has been in a good uptrend, and on the signal Day, the price of the stock opens higher than the previous close and then moves lower to close below the body of the first candle. Simply put, the signal candle is engulfing the previous candle's body. As is the case with any engulfing pattern, the greater the number of days engulfed, the stronger the Important Keys Bearish Engulfing · Trend: Up prior to appearance · Description: Spinning top or doji inside the previous trading day's range · Confirmation: Next day must close below body of the spinning top or the doji · Stop-loss: Above the body of the previous trading day's range reversal signal, and it is not necessary to engulf the shadows of the previous candle. It is critical that the signal candle's body engulfs entirely the previous candle's body in order to qualify as a bearish engulfing pattern. Typically one should enter that day or on the open of the next day. Your stop-loss should be entered above the middle of the signal candle's body in order to give the price room to retest the middle of this candle, which will act as an area of resistance. Remember that longer-than-normal candles will act as support or resistance in the middle of their bodies. Take a moment and analyze the example on the next page to clearly visualize what a bearish engulfing pattern should look like on your stock charts. Three-Bar Patterns: Evening Star An evening star is a three-bar reversal pattern and is the exact opposite of a morning star. This particular pattern represents a clear shift in direction and strength for the price of the stock. Typically you should see a strong movement upward followed the next day by a spinning top or doji representing indecision in the market. On the heels of this Important Keys Evening Star · Trend: Up prior to appearance · Description: Signal day (third day) must close below the middle of the first day · Confirmation: Confirmed on the signal day with the close below the middle of the first day's trading range · Stop-loss: Above the spinning top or the middle of the first trading day indecision the bears come raging into the stock and drive the price down below the middle of the first day's body. It is critical that the signal day closes below the middle of the first day on this particular pattern. If identified correctly, Morning and Evening Stars can represent major shifts in market sentiment and offer a great opportunity to capitalize on major movements in the stock's price. If you enter on the signal day or the following day, enter your stock above the spinning top or above the middle of the first day. Indecision Patterns: Doji This one-bar pattern is a sign of indecision in the price movement of the security, but should not be traded without confirmation. The doji is often present with harami and engulfing patterns. It can also show up as the star on the morning or evening star. In all of these patterns it is critical to wait for the confirmation, which often is the signal day. Important Keys · Trend: Up/Down prior to appearance · Description: Looks like a plus sign - signals potential resistance or support · Confirmation: Confirmed when combined with one of the previously discussed patterns · Stop-loss: Depends on pattern identified These patterns often are found alongside spinning tops and indicate a potential area of support or resistance. Take a moment to familiarize yourself with this particular pattern. These are similar to the doji in that they represent indecision in the market. These should not be traded without confirmation of a change in price direction. As previously mentioned, these often indicate a potential area of support or resistance in the price of the stock. There is no significance in these being opened or closed patterns. Important Keys Spinning Top · Trend: Up/Down · Description: Small body with a shadow at the top and bottom - signals potential resistance or support · Confirmation: Confirmed when combined with one of the previously discussed patterns · Stop-loss: Depends on pattern identified Bullish Candlestick Patterns Bullish reversal patterns are those that can be identified at the bottom or near the bottom of a bearish trend. These patterns are used to indicate a sign of strength returning to the price and a renewed accumulation of the security on the part of market participants. These patterns can be developed with one, two and even three bars. Typically patterns are considered stronger if they develop over a longer period of time or if they are more pronounced. One-Bar Pattern: Hammer Hammers are extremely common and should be identified at the end of a downtrend. There is no specific amount of time needed for the downtrend to be in motion before the appearance of a hammer or inverted hammer. · Trend: Down prior to appearance · Description: Shadow must be 2 times the length of the body · Confirmation: Not necessary · Stop-loss: Below the shadow The general psychology behind a hammer is the concept that bears came into the market on the open and forced the price down, but the bulls came back in full force during the day to drive the price back up before the close. This particular pattern can either be open or closed, but some traders do prefer to place more emphasis on an open hammer as the POWER HAMMER, as opposed to a closed hammer (as indicated in the illustration below). The hammer is identified when the body of the hammer is at the top of the shadow and the shadow is at least twice the length of the body. Generally, one should look for a more pronounced shadow to body ratio than simply twice the length. Hammers do not generally need confirmation, but one should wait for the next day before entering the trade. As a general rule of thumb, if you do enter the trade on the hammer, make sure that your stop-loss is entered below the shadow of the hammer. Typically the following day the market will retest some part of the shadow, which is the reason for your stop being entered lower than the shadow of the hammer. Later on we will discuss the idea of filtering candles with different indicators in order to strengthen or weaken the indicator. One-Bar Pattern: Inverted Hammer As for the Inverted Hammer, this is a little tougher to understand psychologically, but it is considered a bullish indication. The idea is that the market opened and the bulls rallied in, but were driven back by the bears later that day. This is a pattern that would require more of a confirmation the following day compared to an actual hammer. You should look for the price to close higher the following day compared to the body of the inverted hammer. The stop-loss should be placed below the body of the inverted hammer if price confirms the following day. Once again, the shadow should be approximately twice the length of the body. As indicated previously, one should look for a more pronounced shadow to body ratio. · Trend: Down prior to appearance · Description: Shadow must be 2 times the length of the body · Confirmation: Next day must close above body · Stop-loss: Below the body Generally, one would prefer to see little to no shadow on the top of the hammer or on the bottom of the inverted hammer. However, it does not diminish the strength of the hammer if there does exist a small shadow. This is generally referred to as a hammer without a shaved top (head) or an inverted hammer without a shaved bottom. One-Bar Pattern: Dragonfly This particular pattern is essentially a hammer, but a very pronounced hammer. The idea is that the market opened and the bears pushed the price down, but the bulls came back to close the price of the stock at the opening price for the day. There should be little to no shadow on the top of this pattern and this is considered to be less common than an actual hammer or inverted hammer. Remember, the trend must have been down previously for this to count as a bullish reversal pattern. · Trend: Down prior to appearance · Description: Horizontal line with a long vertical line (hammer without a head) · Confirmation: Not necessary · Stop-loss: Below the shadow In order to discuss the two-bar patterns or the three-bar patterns, you must understand a simple concept of candles. When a longer-than -normal body is present on the chart, the middle of that particular candle will act as an area of support or resistance. This concept will be discussed more completely in the support and resistance chapter. Just remember that the longer the candle's body, the stronger the middle of that candle is going to be for near-term support or resistance. Two-Bar Patterns: Piercing Line This particular pattern requires two bars, which increases the strength of the signal compared to a one-bar pattern. The concept is simply the price of the stock has been trending down and has moved down on a strong day. The following day the price of the stock opens low, but rallies all day to close above the middle of the long black bar of the previous day. Basically, support was tested and was not only held by the bulls, but they were able to rally back the following day. It is critical that the price of the stock closes above the middle of the previous day's body, because this represents confirmation of the pattern. Some traders will wait another day to ensure that the price of the stock is reversing, but it is not required. Important Keys Piercing Line · Trend: Down prior to appearance · Description: Signal day must close above the middle of the previous down day · Confirmation: Confirmed on the signal day with the close above the middle of the previous day's trading range · Stop-loss: Below the middle of the previous day's trading activity Two-Bar Patterns: Harami This particular two-bar reversal pattern must have a confirmation of the trend change prior to entering the actual trade. Unlike the piercing line pattern, which is extremely decisive in its change in direction, the harami indicates a change in direction with indecision. The psychological element of this pattern is that the bears have been clearly in control until a small spinning top or doji presents itself. Typically a spinning top or doji represents indecision in the market, which means waiting for the third day for confirmation. The price on the third day needs to close above the body of the spinning top or doji. Important Keys Harami · Trend: Down prior to appearance · Description: Spinning top or doji inside the previous trading day's range · Confirmation: Next day must close above body of the spinning top or the doji · Stop-loss: Below the body of the previous trading day's range Two-Bar Patterns: Bullish Engulfing A bullish engulfing pattern is considered a very strong reversal indicator for the current price trend. This pattern does not require any confirmation on the third day due to the nature of the pattern; however, some traders do wait for the third day to close higher than the signal day for further confirmation of the reversal. The underlying psychological element of this reversal pattern is based on the idea of a strong downward movement in the price of the stock with the next day opening up and engulfing the previous day's trading activity, which is referred to as the signal day. Keep in mind that the greater the number of days engulfed by the signal day, the stronger the reversal. As for stop-loss entry, typically one should enter the stop-loss below the middle of the signal day as indicated in our discussion previously on strong days establishing support/resistance in the middle of the range for the day. Important Keys Bullish Engulfing · Trend: Down prior to appearance · Description: Signal day must engulf the previous trading day's body · Confirmation: Confirmed on the signal day with the engulfing of the pattern · Stop-loss: Below the middle of the signal day Three-Bar Patterns: Morning Star Three-Bar Patterns: Morning Star This three-bar pattern is one of the strongest patterns and when identified can lead to a strong price reversal. The idea of the pattern is a strong bearish trend with a spinning top on the second day. The spinning top indicates a moment of indecision in the market, which can often be taken advantage of on the following day. The signal day is the third day in which the price closes above the middle of the first day. Ideally, one would prefer to see a gap between the first day, the spinning top and the third day. However, a gap is not necessary and only adds strength to the pattern. Important Keys Morning Star · Trend: Down prior to appearance · Description: Signal day (third day) must close above the middle of the first day · Confirmation: Confirmed on the signal day with the close above the middle of the first day's trading range · Stop-loss: Below the spinning top or the middle of the first trading day Notice : don't use it if you don't have a system to know what you do. you must know to put sl ( fisrt money management, it's help you know when you will wrong), and the money management method below is the second money management. it's base on the gamble so be careful with this, the same with dollar costing everage method, it make you feel comfortable when trading, but will kill you so fast if you can not control yourself, (control your system). Money management system is to handle the bet for you. A lot of people did not pay attention to the management of their money. They do not control the amount or quantity of their winnings. You must know that money is ammunition, the house is your enemy. To kill the ones you need ammo and you have money, you have to be careful prenatal care. Besides money management, betting system also acts as guide and betting is called "System". I will explain in detail each of the following systems: 1 - Kelly Criteria 4 - Sequence Fabonacci 1 - Kelly Criteria Kelly Standard was developed in 1956 by John L.Kelly. Kelly's theory to optimize the growth of your funds (ie funds betting) in the long term by determining the optimal stake in a bet. Martingale System works like? Every time you lose, double your bet until you win. The theory behind this system is that you will get the original bet and your profits. You start with one bet. If you win you start again with a new one bet. If you lose double your bet until you win. When you win you will get back what you lost all and still be profitable is the amount of the first bet. Although very effective in theory, but this system requires you to have a huge amount of capital, profits are low and very dangerous because the maximum bet limits imposed by the betting companies. If you run out of money or reach the limit of betting companies, you can lose a lot but do not have the opportunity to recover damages you. The principle of the Martingale system is as follows: Martingale 1-2-4-8-16-32. Every time you lose, double your bet, as many times until you win then return to the original, for example: 1. Bet $ 1 and win. Continue to bet $ 1 for losing, then bet $ 2. 2. If you win $ 2, or about $ 1 bet. If you lose, then bet $ 4. 3. If you win $ 4, back to $ 1 bet. If you lose, then bet $ 8. 4. If you win $ 8, or about $ 1 bet. If you lose, then bet $ 16. 5. If you win $ 16, or about $ 1 bet. If you lose, then bet $ 32. 6. And continue until a winner. One common system is named after mathematician Jean le Rond d'Alembert, a mathematician and physicist, born in 1717 France. His theory of a balance of success and failure of certain events, if you consider a long chain of events. sometimes called "pyramid system", you increase your bet one unit after losing 1 and decrease your bet one unit after a win. The sequence and amount raised or lowered can be varied to suit particular games and odds. Por ejemplo: 1. First $ 1 bet. If you win, bet $ 1. If you lose, bet $ 2. 2. If you win $ 2, continue to bet $ 1. If you lose the bet to $ 3. 3. If you win $ 3, $ 2 bet next. If you lose the bet to $ 4. 4. If you win $ 4, to $ 3 bet. If you were to bet $ 5. 5. Do the same. 4 - Sequence Fabonacci 1-2-3-5-8-13-21-34. To be simple to understand PROGRESS 1 2 Prev. Go up the steps if lost, down 2 steps if you win. Note that each winner pays twice before losing it. Por ejemplo: 1. Bet $ 1 until you lose. Then bet $ 2. 2. If you win $ 2, then go back to step 1. If you lose, then bet $ 3. 3. If you win $ 3, then go back to step 1. If you lose, then bet $ 5. 4. If you win $ 5, then go back to step 2. If you lose, then bet $ 8. 5. If you win $ 8, then go back to step 3. If you lose, then bet $ 13. 6. If you win $ 13, then return to step 4. If you lose, then bet $ 21. 7. If you win $ 21, then go back to step 5. If you lose, then bet $ 34. 8. If you win $ 34, then go to Step 6. If you lose, go back to step 1. The system's name says it all. It is based on the principle that you can win then 4 times your bet. Initially you will bet 1 unit, the 2nd is 3 units, the 3rd is 2 units, the 4th of 6 units. Suppose that 1 unit is $ 10 and the rate of food eaten is located 1 1. At first bet 1 unit, having won the first $ 10, you add $ 20 to $ 30 and bet enough 2nd, if you win you will have to all be $ 60, $ 40 in interest you. 3rd times the bet is $ 20, if the total amount of your winning rate after 3 times bet would be $ 60. Continue bet 4th time you bet $ 60, if you win the $ 120 rate at 4 times the bet. The snow voi.Sau when you win the bet with the system to start with 1 unit. If you lose the first time, you will lose $ 10 If you lose in the 2nd, you will lose $ 20 (for the first time your bet was $ 10) If you lose in the 3rd, you still profit $ 20 (for your 1st and 2nd interest rate $ 10 $ 30) If you lose in the 4th, you draw and you lose nothing ($ 10 rate for 1st, 2nd rate $ 30, 3rd $ 20 rate) The appeal of this system is that you risk $ 20 to get $ 120 profit opportunities. That means you can lose 6 times in the worst times bet (bets placed 2nd) and just 1 time you win the bet (bet 4 times in the system) will be back on with your money. With each time you increase your bet loses more money you have lost 10% and decreased the nearest 10% each time you win. Dow Theory The market changes with every trend can be predicted on the basis of price movements on the chart. The assumption of the Dow: Most stocks follow the underlying trend of the market. The trend of the underlying trend of the market is understood as "the average price index" - reflecting the general trend of a stock market represents. The premise: Only use closing prices: price reflects the closing price, can be predicted, and the impact on the relationship of supply and demand of the market Using averages: The average of all average: • The daily fluctuations • The impact on supply conditions - for the stock, • The investment decision is expected no surprises Dow Theory Explained Dow Theory is based on six basic principles: Principle 1: • Include all information: economic factors, political and psychological factors, the ability to increase the company's profits • All knowledge of all market participants (traders, investors, portfolio managers. ) Principle 2 . 3 The market shift: 1. The shift key (primary movement) o In the first market price up (bull market) is a move up in a large way, at least 18 months. o speculative market prices down (bear market) As a long decline and will stop when there is a significant recovery in stock prices. 2. The secondary reaction: o A significant decline in the market price speculation or a significant increase in the speculation market prices down o The time period generally receding shifted from 33% - 66% (1/3 to 2/3) o Extend from 3 weeks to several months, usually 3 months. o It is important to form a major part of the movement as well as secondary displacement. 3. The small shift: (minor Movements) This shift represents MSU as a slight fluctuation in price over the trading day, going on a very short time. Principle 3: • Each trend generally occurs in three distinct phases • In the bull market has three stages. & # 8226; Phase accumulation can purchase the savvy investor expertise • the public participation phase: occurs when prices began to rise quickly and the news business will be improved • Phase distribution: when the economic news gets better when the volume and nature of the involvement of the public and increase • In the bear market has 3 stages: • Phase distribution • Phase panic • Phase forced selling Principle 4: • The relationship creates value and volume basis • The relationship is fundamental to increase the volume and value recovery narrow the discount. & # 8226; If volume becomes stagnant while prices rise and increase when prices fall, warning that the trend is reversed soon. Principle 5: Signs given rise to continuous rising prices create higher highs and discounts interjected forming higher bottoms. And contrary to sign off. Principle 6: Be aware of the combination index for each sector mutual. Eg: • The industry average: the average price of 20 shares of American industry; & # 8226; The average transportation industry (Transportation): is the average price of 12 shares U.S. transportation sector; & # 8226; In a developing economy, the development industry, the transportation sector is second only to develop the industry average and the average transportation industry will reinforce each other. Forex Karachi Forex Demo For Ipad Forex Demo Account What are Forex demo accounts? To put it simply, these are “simulated” accounts offered by Forex brokers to showcase their trading platforms in the hopes that you will put your future “live” trades through them. These are useful for testing out yourВ trading strategiesВ without risking any real money. When you open up a Forex demo account, you will start out with a notional amount of “play money” that you can use to trade, much like you would with your real account balance in a “full account”. Typically, most brokers will give you $100,000 to start, which is more than enough money to play around with. With this money, you can buy and sell any currency pair to your heart’s content, with price quotes that are mostly in line with real market conditions. The Pros Of Forex Demo Accounts The good thing about Forex demo accounts is that you can simulate real trading without having to deposit your money into an account and put that money at risk with trades. The downfall of many beginner Forex traders is that they let the “money” aspect influence their trading decision making. By taking the “money” aspect out of the equation, you can train yourself to make good trading decisions based on your predefinedВ strategyВ orВ systemВ instead of basing your decision on how much money you are making or losing at any given time. Many successful Forex traders have used Forex demo accounts to hone their trading skills long before they committed any real money to their trading accounts. That’s not to say that everyone who trades on a demo for a long time before they trade “live” will have the same results, but if you’re serious about your demo trading and treat it just as you would if real money were at stake, then you’ll definitely benefit from the experience. The Cons Of Forex Demo Accounts That said, it’s not easy to train your mind to treat the “play money” in a demo account exactly as you would treat “real money”. Many traders have had stellar performances on their demo account trading because they didn’t have the pressure of real money at stake, only to lose and lose big on a live account when they made the switch. When it all comes down to it, it’s not the practice on the demo that makes the difference so much as your capability to control your emotions once you’re trading real money. Of course, it helps to have faith in your strategy and your track record, but it’s easy for things to go into a downward spiral if you have poor emotional control. One thing you need to be aware of with demo accounts is that they are not always in line with the real market prices. This is something that differs from broker to broker, so you’ll have to monitor the price quotes and the price histories between the demo and the live account for your broker of choice. If you’ve got aВ good broker, you’ll have no problems in this regard, but as we all know not all Forex brokers were created equal. This is especially important if you’re using your Forex demo to do a “forward test” of an automated Forex trading system. While this is a smart way of gauging the profitability of a system without putting any real money at risk, your results are only as good as the ability of your demo account price data to mirror the real trading conditions it will face once you invest real money into trading it. How You Can Use Forex Demo Accounts To Your Advantage At the end of the day, if you understand the strengths and the weaknesses of Forex demo accounts, then you can use them to your advantage to make yourself a better Forex trader. Don’t be afraid to open up a few demo accounts with different brokers at a time, and shop around to find the provider that gives you the best price data and the most comfortable and intuitive platform. Most importantly, remember that your success as a Forex trader really depends on the mental attitude and emotional control that you bring to the table, in addition to the practice you get from trading on a demo. 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Linkleri GГ¶ster Copyright В© 2016 | Forex Karachi Forex Demo Account Bet software and betting bots have been around for awhile but does Bet Software really make money for you? What is bet software, otherwise known as a Betting Bot? An exchange betting bot is either a specially written software interface, or a spreadsheet (Excel), that aids in the automated trading of horse racing, football, darts, cricket and all other events Betfair covers. Software bots are also available for poker. Betting bots are nothing new, as similar software has been around for city trading for years, but it is only recently that they have been used for sports betting. Betting bots can be used for trading, hedging, dutching, arbing, automatic betting, and much more. It's been awhile since I first reviewd bet software on this website so it's timely to revisit the subject to see what advances have been made. B F Bot Manager (for which there is a FREE 5 day trial ) is recommended so I took the plunge and below I reveal my findings. Bf Bot Manager has 2 versions of its bet software and each one is available for free trial which means you get 12 days of free trial in total. Add-on bots are also available for free trial for 6 days. Just like any tale of fluctuating fortunes, this review of BF Bot Manager v2 has a beginning, a middle and a happy ending.For other testimonials click here . After Rade, the author of the software, kindly sends me the license keys the software downloads without fuss and I am soon up and running. I am presented with a choice of bots that place and manage bets using the Betfair API and include horses, football, greyhounds, tennis etc. Back/Lay favourites (horses) is my first choice as I know most about laying horses to lose and I choose to include the racing markets from UK & Ireland, Australia, USA and RSA - well might as well make a meal of it! There are numerous settings that you can adjust and even some you are advised to leave well alone, unless you know what you're doing! You can also choose the simulation mode to test your options before parting with your cash. But you will have to have a funded Betfair account before you can do anything, although this need not be large, as stakes are accepted as little as ВЈ0.01. As my trial license is only for 9 days I opt to use minimum stakes and leave all other settings on default. Day 1 23rd August The bet software places lay bets on the first or second favourite and after a fairly uneventful session I end the day with a ВЈ0.16 loss Day 2 24th August I take the chance to read the manual on Back/Lay favourites and made the following changes to the settings: Betting Bank ВЈ20 Use % Staking 0.5% = ВЈ0.10 Loss Pot Recovery 100% I also try placing a user selection lay bet on one of the Irish horse races but fail to notice I need to press a place bet button. Next time I try this it works ok A useful add-on function called BF Notes enables you to add notes to any horse and the program highlights your comments whenever the horse runs As things are going well I increase the Recovery Stake option to ВЈ0.50 which adds this amount to the stake for a bet placed to recover losses. Nothing untoward occurs and I end the day with a ВЈ1.23 profit. Day 3 25th August I set the bet software up to run in the afternoon and let it run without interefence until mid evening by which time a profit of ВЈ2.82 is realised so I stop the horse lay bot and decide to try the soccer bot which starts by laying all matches for a draw, changing the settings to; Hedge if price changes by 40% - max liability of hedge bet ВЈ2 and if no lay bet on the draw then back fav for ВЈ0.50 when price below 1.15 What you have to be aware of with the soccer bot is the fact that as matches run for a relatively long time, many bets can be running at once. I don't make anything running this bot so decide to stop further use of it Day 4 26th August Start bot before leaving for work as racing starts before I return around 2.30pm - check Betfair at work and no bets placed - check bot back at home and discover I forgot to click the Resume button which sets The bet software in action - doh! So there's a warning! Worth double checking everything when betting live on Betfair Ran Horse lay favourite bot from 2.30pm to 10pm made ВЈ6.40 using 0.50% of bank, stakes generally 17p but loss recovery on of ВЈ0.50, so some stakes were ВЈ0.67 - excluded one race Lady Sledmore who I thought would win) by clicking the tick in the S column on the left of the markets page - see graphic above I visit the forum and register - although you need to be confirmed by admin to post, you can search and read existing posts - seems to be quite lively with plenty of comment and owner is open to suggestions for improving The bet softwares systems. Rade the programmer plays a leading and active role responding to users requests and suggestions for improvements. For example here is a discussion of the merits and explanation of Day 5 27th August - when I open up the bet software I make this observation (Saturday - could encounter turbulence) Started bot at 10.30am and first race picked up by bot at 10.50am RSA Vaal - after a long days betting I end the day reducing the profit on all horse bets to ВЈ0.11 Day 6 28th August I realize after a small loss today that loss recovery needs careful management but there is plenty of advice on this in the forums. Many folks successfully run the bot without resorting to this facility Day 7 29th August I firstly turn off the loss recovery I am using. I then adopt a staking plan called D'Alembert and I end the day with a small loss of ВЈ0.07 Day 8 30th August Today brings a new dawn - I discover Maria who is introduced to me somewhere on the forums and with Maria's staking plan taking over I move smoothly into profit again The Maria staking plan (available in version 2 as one of several plans) has the following rules stake 1% bank if price below 3.5 stake 0.60% bank if price below 7.4 stake 0.40% bank if price below 11.0 I also stipulated there should be a minimum of 8 runners for a bet to be placed Much better day ending in a profit of ВЈ0.11 using minimum ВЈ0.01 stakes The user who devised this plan went on to make over ВЈ11,000 profit in the first year Day 9 31st August Start software at 2.30pm and Bot runs smoothly, placing appropriate bets thanks to our new staking friend, Maria and the day ends with a comfortable profit of ВЈ0.48 using minimum stakes. This is the last day of the trial as the license expires but with the discovery of how to properly regulate the use of BF Bot Manager I realize that good steady profits can be made and I look forward to renewing my license which as I mention previously is a one-off payment Using the Maria staking plan it is possible to increase your bank on a daily basis by around 3% - so starting with ВЈ100 within 4 months your bank could be ВЈ4000+ This includes all future upgrades and improvements and you can get a FREE 5 day trial to the two versions of BF Bot Manager V1 ВЈ59.95 and V2 ВЈ99.95 obtainable Finally this what the author Rade has to say when I show him my review: "I read your review and it seems fine to me. If you continue to use software and chat on forum I am sure that you will learn how all settings work and find several different other ways to use our bots. In members section there are several test settings by other users, some are profitable and some are not. Most users that use loss recovery have high strike rate, 90+% so that rarely they have two losses in a row." Please feel free to publish this review. Rade (BF Bot Manager Designer) New bet software update for Bf Bot Manager V2 NG-API version is available and it includes the following major improvements: Silk and other information for horse/jockey is displayed at selections form Multiple Strategies bot - new Lay 1-4 staking plan added Multiple Strategies bot - Events filter condition, added more events to filter by Multiple Strategies bot - added "Skip if favourite difference is not satisfied" market condition Multiple Strategies bot - added "Bet if score" market condition Multiple Favorites bot - fix to retry bet placement if first bet placement failed Web requests now use gzip compression, less bandwidth is used and faster response from server Issue with bets history being lost should now be fixed "Score" column is added to main markets grid, score is determined by using Correct Score market prices. Correct score market must be loaded and monitored during in play for this to work. Auto loading of markets is improved Bug fixes Find Out How To: 1. Use Arbitrage 2. Lay Horses     3. Use Systems  4. Get Free Bets The Colbert Report That resonant piece of verbal shorthand, TMI--or Too Much Information--would make a fine epigraph for our age. Anyone with an Internet connection today has access to exponentially greater quantities of writing, images, sound, and video than anyone on earth could have imagined just twenty years ago. Small wonder that we have become obsessed with the idea of "information" as an abstract substance independent of its content--something that we accumulate, measure, and "process," rather than ponder and understand. And small wonder that the management and control of information, whether by its "producers," by governments, or by corporations such as Google, has emerged as an increasingly important political concern, and as a subject of scholarship. This scholarship, in the field of history, has recently taken an intriguingly paradoxical turn. While the extreme availability of information today should presumably have highlighted its relative paucity in earlier periods, historians--most notably Ann Blair--have in fact extended the concept of "information overload" all the way back to the sixteenth century, arguing that while we now associate the phenomenon with the internet, the printing press had a comparable effect. Until its invention, most literate people had access to relatively little written material. They could manage to read literally everything they could get their hands on. After Gutenberg, however, books multiplied rapidly, and soon many libraries became too large for their owners to read more than a small percentage of the texts. It became necessary to devise strategies for dealing with the excess. Scholars invented systems of note-taking, methods of summarizing and skimming, and principles of triage. As Francis Bacon famously remarked: "Some books are to be tasted, others to be swallowed, and some few to be chewed and digested: that is, some books are to be read only in parts; others to be read, but not curiously; and some few to be read wholly, with diligence and attention." That is, among other things, a comment about coping. We cope in the same way; and anyone who identifies Wikipedia with the end of civilization should be reassured to learn that early modern Europeans already possessed an impressive arsenal of intellectual crutches and shortcuts, some of them quite dubious. By the seventeenth century there already existed a large genre of reference works, compendia, and reading guides, so as to lead the uninitiated through the increasingly dense thickets of learning, sometimes at breakneck speed. Some readers made use of little else, with classical compendia particularly prized for the quick simulacra of learning that they provided. As Jonathan Swift advised young critics, "Get scraps of Horace from your friends, / And have them at your fingers' ends." More serious scholars put together their own guides and reference works. Ann Blair has shown that many of the greatest Renaissance thinkers had no compunction about attacking their books with scissors, cutting and pasting what they considered the crucial passages into commonplace books or card files for easy reference. By illuminating all these systems, methods, and reference works, Blair and her fellow scholars are giving us a new vision of Renaissance learning, grounded not simply in our own reading of the texts, but in an attempt to grasp what people at the time actually knew, and how they knew it. Printed books and periodicals were not the only form of writing to proliferate wildly in early modern Europe. So did reports, memoranda, briefs, circulars, directives, and all the masses of paper that form the crinkly carapaces of modern governments. By the time of the French Revolution, it had become almost impossible for officials to imagine how earlier ages survived without them. "The ministry is a world of paper," wrote Saint-Just at the height of the Terror. "I don't know how Rome and Egypt governed without this resource." Saint-Just also identified the problems that arose as a result: "Government is impossible with too many words. the demon of writing makes war on us, and government stops." In short, early modern government needed information management just as much as early modern scholarship did. The development of state information management might seem a dull subject. Ledgers, account books, and filing systems generally do not make for heroic drama or grand epic. Yet in the hands of Jacob Soll these mundane objects become strangely mesmerizing. A gifted intellectual historian known for a fine book on seventeenth-century French humanism and politics, Soll here shifts his attention to the core of the early modern state, and the attempt by the French monarchy under Louis XIV to establish a new sort of political pre-eminence over its large, diverse, and notoriously fractious nation: what historians today call the project of absolutism. In this process, Soll argues convincingly, officials began consciously to treat the generation, the control, and the management of information as a central instrument of power. It helps that Soll's story has a genuinely fascinating protagonist. He is Jean-Baptiste Colbert, Louis XIV's chief minister. A ruthless and brilliant parvenu who rose to the commanding heights of French society and became the chief promoter of the economic policies known as mercantilism, Colbert is a well-known historical figure. But Soll reveals a new side of him, casting him as a sort of magnificent obsessive--a practical-minded Casaubon who pursued, throughout his life, an impossible dream of universal knowledge. Colbert, as Soll shows, took inspiration from the humanist scholars who longed to create a usable universal library, but he sought to direct his own information management system toward the single goal of strengthening the French monarchy. He would not collect information in general, but information of use in governing. And instead of making it available to all interested readers, he would hoard it as a valuable commodity, deploying it publicly only when it served the purpose of the state. In designing this system, Soll argues, Colbert brought together two very different European traditions: not just the forms of information management developed in the humanist Republic of Letters, but also the reporting and accounting systems developed by Europe's great merchant houses. Here one great inspiration came from the Fugger family of Augsburg and its vast sixteenth-century trading empire, which depended on regular news reports from a far-flung network of correspondents (in a very real sense, the first "reporters"), and on sophisticated filing and accounting methods to manage them. Colbert himself came from a mercantile background in eastern France, and had an education appropriate to the milieu, with more attention to calculation and the mysteries of double-entry bookkeeping than to the subtleties of Latin verse. In his early years, this mercantile background brought Colbert a great deal of scorn, both from the grand aristocrats who dominated the French state and the humanist scholars who advised them. They mocked his vulgar manners, his bourgeois dress (especially his "merchant's collar"), and his literary ignorance. But to Cardinal Mazarin, Richelieu's successor as France's chief minister in the war-torn 1640s, Colbert's talents for managing money spoke more eloquently than the scholars' talent for glossing Tacitus: thanks to him, Mazarin's personal fortune swelled to tens of millions of French pounds, an astonishing sum for the period. While treating Colbert as a sort of glorified servant, Mazarin nonetheless made him his principal accountant and trusted adviser, and then, most crucially, his librarian. The cardinal possessed the largest and best-kept library in France, which would become the core of the royal library, and thus the direct ancestor of today's Bibliothèque Nationale. Colbert grasped that the position gave him privileged access to precisely the sort of information that Mazarin most needed to protect and strengthen the prerogatives of the monarchy against increasingly sharp challenges from at home and abroad. To understand Colbert's strategies for collecting and managing information, it is necessary to understand something about the Baroque disaster area that was the early modern French state. Soll rightly calls it "staggeringly arcane--a feudal web of laws and taxes." Since the Middle Ages, the French monarchy had allowed layer after layer of institutions, laws, and practices to accumulate, often in competition with each other, and each possessing their own royally guaranteed privileges and responsibilities. The resulting confusion was a dream for lawyers and a nightmare for almost everyone else. France's provinces had one set of boundaries when it came to the authority of royal governors, another when it came to legal jurisdictions, another when it came to royal tax collecting, and still others for excise taxes, internal tariffs and Catholic dioceses. Enlightenment commentators repeatedly likened the structure to a huge half-ruined mansion, and dreamed of blowing it up and starting again from scratch. (It is small wonder that the first great project of the French Revolutionary state was the literal demolition of that hated symbol of royal power, the Bastille.) But the kings of the Old Regime, however "absolute" their supposed authority, could not simply call in the wrecking ball, because their regime, always skating the edge of bankruptcy, depended on the revenue gleaned from the complex and confusing web of privileges that ambitious subjects remained ever willing to pay for. In this context, the single most valuable sort of information for the government concerned precedents. What share of its tax revenues did a particular town owe to the central state? How much had it actually turned over in the past? Who had the right to name its aldermen? How much could be charged for the privilege? What right did its courts have to interpret or obstruct royal legislation? What had taken place in previous disputes? If the crown controlled the sources of information on such questions, it could resolve disputes in its own favor without incurring the charges of arbitrary rule and despotism that might destroy confidence in the system altogether. Mazarin made good use of Colbert's talents in this area, and so did Mazarin's pupil King Louis XIV. When Mazarin died in 1661, the twenty-three-year-old Louis declared he would henceforth manage the government himself. But Colbert became chief minister in all but name, and continued to build his state information system. Most immediately, he worked with the king to stifle challenges to royal authority from the obstreperous sovereign courts ( parlements ). And this was only the beginning. In the 1660s, he began to train, and send throughout the country, a cadre of "professional state observers" to put together what amounted to a political fact book of France: population numbers; information on land holdings, regulations and laws; sketches of important personalities; data on economic activity. Soon Colbert expanded his ambitions to include neighboring countries as well. When he sent one observer--his son--to Italy, in 1671, he gave him the following instructions. In each state, he said, look at. its situation, its military forces, the number of its peoples, the greatness of the state, the number and size of cities, towns, and villages, the quantity of the peoples that compose the whole; the form of State government, and if it is aristocratic. of the names and status of noble families that have taken or will take part in governing the Republic; their different functions; their general and particular councils; who represents the State, in whom the sovereign power lies and who resolves peace and war, who makes laws; etc. the suffrages collected and the results taken and pronounced; the particular councils for the militia, the admiralty, justice, for the city and for the rest of the State; the laws and the customs under which they live; in what consist the militias meant to guard the main square. Visit the public works, maritime and on ground, all the palaces, public houses, and generally all that is remarkable. The letter itself proves that it is in no way anachronistic to apply terms like "information gathering" and "information management" to the seventeenth century. The letter also gives evidence of Colbert's mania. He worked feverishly, always collecting, filing, and calculating. Soll calls him "a man apparently never happier than when filling out account ledgers." He reserved his anger above all for his son, whom he trained to take his place but who, predictably, could never live up to expectations. "I will visit every night my table and papers," the son promised Colbert obsequiously in 1671, "and I will expedite, before going to bed, that which I can, or I will put aside and send later, before marking, in my agenda that I will keep exactly on my table, the affairs that I will have sent out." But he repeatedly let down his demanding parent, who scolded him with cold fury in 1676: "You must still take care to look after your papers. [as] I asked you to do, and which I still do every day, for you, and which I now find rolled in a desk, in the worst state of filth, in spite of the fact that they contain the quintessence of the spirit of the most accomplished people in the kingdom." Outside the troubled bosom of his family, Colbert showed little emotion, earning the sobriquet of le nord --the north--from Madame de Sévigné. Not surprisingly, Colbert's long-term goal proved impossible to realize. Soll defines it as the idea that "all knowledge, formal and practical, could be used together in one archival system to understand and master the material world." Colbert could no more complete this system than the Renaissance humanists could complete their ideal universal library. Indeed, Louis XIV finally concluded that it was better not even to try, lest the attempt end up placing excessive power in hands other than his own. In 1683, after Colbert's sudden death (probably from a kidney stone), the king dismantled the system, and spread the responsibilities of information collecting and management among different ministries. Soll suggests, quite plausibly, that in doing so Louis "hobbled" the French state, making it even less possible to manage and setting it on the path to the mammoth bankruptcy and breakdown that, a century later, would usher in the French Revolution. Yet Colbert did accomplish a great deal. He bought whole libraries and archives, and by the time of his death, the royal library had tripled in size, housing some 36,000 books and 10,500 manuscripts. His aides produced by far the most systematic and detailed descriptions of the country ever attempted, and for the first time in history the "nation" of France began to come into focus as a social unity that could be managed and transformed by political action. Colbert trained a cadre of talented officials to implement all these projects. He also enlisted some of the most gifted intellectuals of the day to help, including Charles Perrault, the famous author of fairy tales, and the academician Jean Chapelain. And he made excellent use of the information that he harvested, particularly against the principal sources of domestic resistance to the king's absolutist project: the parlements and the Catholic church. In 1682 he deployed his vast erudition to ensure wide support for measures subjecting the church to an unprecedented degree of state control. Colbert also worked to restrict the public flow of information, and here he set particularly long-lasting precedents. He made secrecy his byword, and insisted that no one outside government had any right to a knowledge of its workings--particularly its financial workings. Soll depicts him at work ensuring that no Paris printer could learn Greek or Latin without official approval, so that potentially seditious classical scholarship would remain under close surveillance. He shows Colbert striving to suppress Richard Simon's pioneering critical treatment of the Old Testament--one of the first attempts to treat Scripture as a historical text--and promoting the idea that "history should serve only to conserve the splendor of the King's enterprises." While Louis XIV abandoned other elements of Colbert's information system, he happily retained all of these. Soll tells this story in wonderfully lucid prose, and with a great gift for concision. Colbert emerges from his pages not only as the patron saint of modern bureaucrats, but as a forceful--if somewhat repellent--personality, and as another of the great early modern figures who sought to gain unprecedented knowledge of, and mastery over, the material world. What Galileo and Newton strove for in natural science, and Hobbes and Montesquieu in political science, Colbert, we now see, pursued in the less glorious but still vital realm of management and paperwork. In revealing this side to the minister, Soll has made a major contribution to our understanding of early modern history. The principal criticism to be leveled at the book--a distinctly odd one, for an academic monograph--is that there is not enough of it. Even Soll's talent for concision does not save some chapters from feeling sparse, and Colbert's great enterprise devoid of a thicker and richer context. Soll does give tantalizing glimpses of this context. He knows the precedents for Colbert's projects well--especially those carried out by Italian and Spanish monarchs. He discusses them clearly, if briefly, and shows how Colbert's ambitions outstripped those of his predecessors. He also gives a brief, intriguing sense of how the story continued in the eighteenth century and afterward. But here, particularly, some important issues could have used fuller attention. Following the French historian Roger Chartier, Soll suggests that the more the absolute monarchy became associated with secrecy, the more its opponents deployed the banner of "publicity" to resist it, seeking to promote both the free circulation of information and free debate about what that information meant. The antithesis of Colbert's philosophy of state secrecy came in the visions of a public sphere of free, rational, critical debate developed in the eighteenth century by writers such as Malesherbes, Condorcet, and Kant. As Soll astutely points out, this dialectical relationship between secrecy and publicity makes the state a much more important actor in the development of the early modern public sphere than most of its historians (who have principally studied the institutions of the sphere itself, such as salons and coffee houses) have recognized. Soll then gestures toward the modern consequences of the story. "Even for the most open of democracies," he writes, "the culture of state secrecy is necessary and potent, but at the same time, in its very essence, perverse and dangerous." True enough, but while such sentences conjure up images of a malevolent Dick Cheney, the true modern heirs of Colbert's information system did not work in the office of the American vice president, but in Hitler's Chancellery, in Stalin's Kremlin, and in the East German Ministry of State Security, infamously known as the Stasi. It was in the bulging files that the Stasi insanely tried to compile on each and every East German citizen, enlisting a substantial proportion of the population to spy on the rest (and each other), that Colbert's dream of encyclopedic information came closest to realization. Since the collapse of communism, the spirit of Colbertism lingers on in such places as Moscow, Beijing, and Teheran. And it is in such places that dissidents are now deploying the tools of the current information revolution, from e-mail to Facebook to Twitter, to establish a new public sphere in defiance of state secrecy. What distinguishes democracy from authoritarian rule, on the level of information systems, is that in democracy such systems have the double purpose of informing the state about its citizens and its citizens about the state. What is at stake here is the principle of accountability. In absolutist France, the state's agents were ultimately accountable to no one but the king. Colbert's system, with its accompanying bureaucracy and paperwork, allowed the state to keep watch on civil society, but not the reverse. Democratic societies, however, demand this reversal. As the historian Ben Kafka has recently shown, French revolutionaries in 1789 made public accountability a key demand, and wrote it into the Declaration of the Rights of Man and Citizen. From now on, Saint-Just's "demon of writing" would provide a public record of the state's doings, and therefore help to protect citizens against the abuses of its agents. Modern bureaucracies remain riven by this tension between the two purposes of "public information." More broadly, Soll does not engage explicitly enough with the large, fascinating question of how the control of information relates to the control of knowledge. He deals at great length with one of Colbert's minions, a certain Joseph-Nicolas Foucault, but another Foucault, the philosopher Michel, lurks ineluctably in the background of any book of this sort. Foucault's famous work on knowledge and power mostly investigated very different issues from the kind of information management that Soll explores. It showed the ways that the naming of things, the categorization of knowledge, and the construction of "discourses" can radically shape the field of human action. In his later years, Foucault brought this perspective to bear more closely on questions of governance, looking at how practices of categorization and discipline work through institutions to shape and control individual "subjects" (what he called "governmentality"). But his orientation toward philosophical problems rather than historical ones, and his tendency to see "discourses" and practices as all-encompassing and uniform, make it difficult for his work to explain actual processes of historical change. For this reason, careful historians still tend to shy away from invoking him too sweepingly. Yet Soll's fine book makes clear that Colbert's ministry represented not only a crucial stage in the development of state information management, but also something new in the broader history of ideas. The mercantile perspective the minister brought to bear on statecraft and scholarship was, despite the mirage of universal knowledge it came bound up with, deeply utilitarian. When trying to understand and to evaluate the information that he so assiduously collected and organized, Colbert applied a single clear criterion: its practical use-value to the French state. In a world of statesmen and scholars obsessed with fame, glory, and eternal salvation, the introduction of such a perspective at the very summit of the state represented a significant change. Colbert may have been a quintessential figure of the Old Regime in his attachment to royal power and noble privilege, but in his utilitarian and empirically minded way of thinking he was nothing less than a precursor of the Enlightenment. Soll notes that the great Encyclopedia of Diderot and d'Alembert made reference to Colbert no less than 143 times. The path from Colbert to the Enlightenment needs further investigation. So, for that matter, does the path to the Enlightenment from the scholarly forms of information management studied by historians such as Blair. How does our relationship to formal knowledge change when we do not read through a book from start to finish, submitting ourselves to its logic and authority--when we impose our own organizational scheme on it through sophisticated forms of note-taking and the use of reference guides? The suddenness and completeness of the shift from one form of reading to another should not be exaggerated, but the phenomenon still has clear importance to the development of what we call, however imperfectly, modernity. The still more radical challenge to reading posed by the electronic dissemination of texts likewise promises, in the long run, to have profound effects on our broader intellectual universe. The great irony about Colbert is that the ways of knowing that he championed would ultimately prove incompatible with the social and political values that he defended. 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Had 1/2 million followers at end of life(1791) - in Methodist societies within C of E. Later split and formed own churches though JW never intended to form separate church - just trying to reach more people within Anglican Church. Tended to appeal to popular culture rather than elite and not as much emphasis on doctrine but rather on personal relationship with Jesus for every believer. F. A. Mesmer From whom comes "mesmerism". Austrian physician who created a stir in Paris by arranging seances where people were touched by a wand or sat in tubs to receive "animal magnetism" in the hope of curing ills. Was an early stage in the discovery of hypnosis. Committee of the Royal Academy of Sciences, after investigation concluded theories to explain these phenomena were without foundation. All part of taste for MYSTIFICATION that was oddly present in the Age of Reason. 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So try one of these interesting players today. Holdem Tactics – Flying Blind One tactic that is used to steal the blinds pleasant. You can do the following: 1 & # 8211; When in late position or the cutoff frequency of 2 – Look, if someone objects to the pot, so that everyone in the cash / checks or folds 3 – Make a big bet, five times the big blind 4 – Each must double If someone hits you again, if another shot depending on the strength of your hole cards are. You can make a good case with nearly all blind hole cards. Holdem Tactics – pairs punch Another good tactic is to play a pocket pair, you can play from any position. This can be fun in a way because people within eight you. Meet a set on the flop, and even more by the turn or river It is pretty easy to do: 1 & # 8211; Do you have a pair of treaties with 2 pockets – see Start / box on the flop (make sure the price is not too crazy) 3 – Make sure you have a set on the flop 4 – If you are raised without all just fold 5 – If no one pulls the Tower / 6 see free flow – Touching the entire bet everything normal, also reraise. And rake when will surprise you with a prayer. These are just some quick and easy holdem tactics that are used to make a little money can do at the poker table. They are fun to do and a little spice to your Hold’em game. Disfruta. Charles Fey, an auto workman, made the first mechanical slot machine that paid from the machine, in 1895. It was a nickel machine with three reels and ten images on every reel. The images were card suits; precious stones hearts spades and clubs. The fifth image was the freedom chime. In the event that three freedom chimes lined up, the champ got ten coins back. From that minute, slot machines turned into an essential piece of clubs and casinos. These slot machines stayed prevalent until the late 1960’s when electronic gadgets showed up. By the mid 1980’s the microchip rolled out colossal improvements in the configuration and more complicated games like those with second screen bonus rounds created from that point. The slot machine’s unique reason in casinos was to keep wives and sweethearts occupied while the men did genuine gambling. Today, the greater part of pay to casinos originates from the slot machines with pit games in second place. Slot machines are profoundly esteemed by the casino for their productivity. Little consideration is fundamental once the slot is on the floor, but to purge the bill plate daily and refill the coins or paper for tickets. Casino visitor cherish the games and sometimes get fortunate. Most don’t understand that there are approaches to build your fortunes when you bet on slot machines. 1. Overview the zone in the casino. Every now and again you’ll see ATM’s and Cash out stations occupied in diverse regions. Verify whether a great many people are withdrawing or trading in for money slot tickets. In the event that they trade in for cold hard currency tickets, go to that range to bet. On the off chance that you play in a casino that still uses coins, listen for the sound of trade tinkling in for spendable dough the plate. Every now and again higher payouts are in trafficked regions. 2. Check the group deliberately before you wager. There’s an immense distinction between 5 pennies and 5 dollars. 3. Look at the sort of machine that hits most oftentimes. Ordinarily a recently presented slot has a higher payout program and changed later, once the players adore it. 4. Watch out for a dark screen. Today casinos can change payouts remotely and its legitimate in many states. The law obliges that they must hold up until four minutes go following the last coin played. A dark screen shows up and illuminates the players that progressions happened. The machine does not acknowledge coinage for 4 minutes. 5. Check the payout. Today’s penny slots are presently truly dollar and quarter slots. On the off chance that you play all lines on a multi-line machine or play greatest coins. Check whether the most noteworthy payout legitimizes the sum you embed. If not, instead of play pennies, switch to dollars. Winning is less regular yet much bigger. 6. Read, read, read the payout diagrams. A few machines don’t build the payout in products. Case in point, on the off chance that you play certain dollar machines and hit a noteworthy prize on one coin the sum may be 1/3 that of three coins, or a great deal less. On the off chance that it doesn’t make a difference proportionately, what number of coins you play, stick to one coin in case you’re short on cash. 7. Verify you play most extreme coins when needed. A few machines pay on particular wins on the first coin, different sorts on the second and each triumphant blend on the third, for example, Blazing 7’s. On machines that have a few lines, play all the lines. 8. Search for banks of machines that promote higher paybacks. By law, each machine in the bank must pay the publicized sum. 9. Continuously utilize your players card. The players card computes the quantity of coins put into the machines and gives comps and money back in view of your play. You may get a free smorgasbord from your play, whether you win or lose. It is either a bonus for the day or a standout amongst the most costly suppers you’ve ever eaten. 10. Enjoy a reprieve. In case you’re on a losing streak, don’t pursue your misfortunes. Do something else and when you feel better, play once more. 11. Try not to play a slot machine that has credits or a tipped seat in front. Nature calls or the ATM may additionally and players leave their machines. Numerous leave a coat, tip the seat or leave a couple credits on the machine or coins in the well to check the domain for their arrival. On the off chance that a machine is blazing and nobody is at the seat, that player has won a bonanza and regularly plays another machine while they sit tight for a chaperon. Try not to take a seat unless you need an encounter. Focus before you take a seat. 12. Watch your cash go in and turn out. Here and there the bill receptor spits back the cash and it falls on the floor. In the event that you don’t focus, you either lose the cash or call an orderly to no end. Bear in mind to money out. In the event that you would prefer not to trade in for spendable dough a ticket for $.19 bring it with you and food it into the following machine. Páginas Mensajes recientes Archivo The Blackjack Crack System – Get An Advantage At Blackjack March 18, 2016 by Click Image To Visit Site Now Just $3.95 USD! I LOVE BLACKJACK! Simple como eso. 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I promise it does not involve any of the following… The 1 3 2 4 Betting Strategy The 1 3 2 6 Betting Strategy The Martingale Gambling System The Super Martingale Gambling System The Reverse Martingale Gambling System The Labouchere Gambling Strategy The Reverse Labouchere Gambling Strategy The Red or Black Betting System The Shotwell Gambling System The Fibonacci Numbers Betting Strategy The Cross Gambling Strategy The D’Alembert Gambling System The Contra D’Alembert Gambling System The Parlay Betting System The Paroli Gambling System The Oscars Grind Betting System The Counting Cards Gambling Strategies such as Zen Count, Wong Halves or True Count All of the above you can get online for free anyway! It does not require… raising or lowering your bet complex mathematical formulas. marking the cards or cheating. Furthermore, you probably already know about the basic strategy odds charts and yes they certainly do help lower the house edge. But The Blackjack Crack System goes beyond that! 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